DraftKings NBA Picks March 16: Embiid will dominate Nets
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings NBA Picks March 16: Embiid will dominate Nets
We are down to six games for Friday. Most people are deep into the NCAA tournament, so maybe we can get people slacking a little on DFS. We wont be doing that! There are a couple of stars playing tonight, but are any of them worth using? Where can we find some value? Let’s take a look!
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The money line was way down a bit to 274.5 DraftKings points. The last minute switch to Ante Zizic torpedoed my lineup. I still hit 266.5 even with his contribution of just four points.
The winning lineup was down a couple of points to 369.75. He built around Jokic and all that Jazz. He got big value from Aminu, Beastley, and Kyle O’Quinn.
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Point Guards:
Best Bets:
Russell Westbrook ($11,600): Westbrook has three straight triple doubles. The fact that that doesn’t surprise us tells you what a superb two year run Westbrook is having. However, he has still not hit value at this price in two of those three games. Westbrook has also only scored 107.25 DraftKings points in two games against the Clippers this year. Sure, that’s a good floor, but it doesn’t say a lot for the upside. It’s nice to have a guy like Westbrook, especially on a short slate, but I’m not going to weaken my lineup to make it happen.
Terry Rozier ($8,000): Another Irving absence, another huge game for Rozier. There is no damage to Irving’s knee, which is great news for Boston, but he is still going to miss at least one more game. Luckily for us DFS people, we get to use Rozier against Orlando in what could be his last start for a while. Rozier should have no problems hitting value tonight.
Honorable Mention:
Kyle Lowry ($7,800): Lowry abused Dallas to the tune of 45.5 DraftKings points in the first meeting. He is certainly capable of doing it again, though like last night, the Raptors are going to rest Lowry any chance they get. If this game gets out of hand, it’s likely Lowry will see 30 minutes or less. That does limit his upside.
Goran Dragic ($7,500): Dragic has led the Heat in scoring over the last couple of games with the rest of the offense pretty much gone cold. If this trend holds, Dragic could be in for a big night against a Lakers team that doesn’t defend the perimeter well. We have been waiting to see this all year from Dragic. Will it continue?
D’Angelo Russell ($6,500): Russell put up 37.5 DraftKings points on Sunday against this same Philadelphia team. In between, he torched the Raptors for 48.25 on Tuesday. The Nets are finally starting to turn Russell loose, and his DraftKings price has yet to reflect it. Russell looks like a nice bargain tonight.
Dark Horses:
Austin Rivers ($5,800): Rivers continues to be a solid producer for the Clippers. His role is more defined now. Rivers plays at least 33 minutes per game, often going over that mark. That gives him plenty of opportunities to hit value at this low of a price.
De’Aaron Fox ($5,400): Fox even hit value against Miami, one of the top five point guard defenses in the league, on Wednesday. Fox isn’t the kind of guy that is going to put up huge numbers, but if he can drop 20 points on Miami, he is capable of racking up huge value if the gets the assists up. Another bonus is that Fox likely wont have to deal with Curry tonight. That makes him a strong value play here.
Shane Larkin ($3,800): Larkin had a very nice game backing up Rozier on Wednesday night. Of course, the inflated minutes may have had something to do with the double overtime game as well. Still, Larkin only needs 19 DraftKings points for value. He is capable of hitting that mark if you need to go really cheap.
My pick: Fox(PG), Russell(G)
Shooting Guards:
Best Bets:
Lou Williams ($7,400): Williams has racked up 96 DraftKings points in 71 minutes against the Thunder this year. The problem is that Williams may not see quite that many minutes. 5x value is still within reach though. Williams still routinely plays 30 minutes per game. Brewer has helped the defense, but he is no Roberson.
Isaiah Thomas ($6,500): Thomas has played very well with Brandon Ingram out. Thomas has 106 DraftKings points in the last three games. That puts Thomas at about 6x value, even at this price. Miami presents a tougher challenge than any of the prior three teams, but Thomas should still hit better than 5x value.
Honorable Mention:
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($6,100): KCP was dreadful from the field on Wednesday, and he still came very closeto 5x value. This is something that never would have happened in his time in Detroit. If KCP went cold from the floor, his DraftKings points were in single digits. His newfound solid floor make KCP a strong play regardless of the matchup.
Jonathon Simmons ($6,100): I know the matchup with Boston is not a great one, but Simmons went nuts on Milwaukee on Wednesday. With Evan Fournier out for the foreseeable future, Simmons took on the bulk of the scoring load and put up monster numbers. Temper your expectations against Boston, but there is really no reason for Simmons to not hit at least 5x value.
Dark Horses:
Buddy Hield ($5,600): Hield is a complete crapshoot on any given night. Judging by his performance over the last two weeks, Hield is due for his off game. However, the Warriors are still operating with a skeleton crew. Maybe he can finally shake this on one game off the next trend that he is on. His upside makes him a great GPP dart throw, but his bad games are single digit DraftKings points bad and will completely ruin your lineup.
Corey Brewer ($4,400): Brewer plays solid defense, and is a bigger contributor to the offense than Roberson was. That makes Brewer a strong value play every night. San Antonio is the only team that has held him under value for this price since he became the starter. Brewer is a low risk value play right now.
Nick Young ($4,000): Klay and Curry are both still out, so look for Young to get plenty of run for the Warriors once again. Young is a superb value play tonight. He may even be better than Brewer!
My pick: Young(SG)
Small Forwards:
Best Bets:
Ben Simmons ($8,800): Simmons posted his second straight triple-double last night. I wont say that he’s going to get a third tonight against Brooklyn – the rebounds could be hard to come by – but this just highlights what gives Simmons such a good floor. He contributes across the board, which makes Simmons one of the more reliable high dollar plays. I definitely trust him more than a hobbled Durant.
Paul George ($8,100): George has dominated the Clippers so far this season. He has 116.25 DraftKings points in just two games. George did tweak his groin on Tuesday, and didn’t practice in full yesterday. That makes me a little nervous about his status. For what it’s worth, George said he is playing. If he is, I want him in there!
Honorable Mention:
Kyle Kuzma ($6,400): Kuzma is still questionable, but most signs point to him being able to play. The tough part here is that the lineups lock a full 3.5 hours before this game starts. We have no way of knowing the status of Kuzma for sure unless the Lakers confirm his status earlier in the day. That seems unlikely. If news comes down that Kuzma is in, I want him in for me as well.
Jayson Tatum ($6,200): The Celtics aren’t the only team that’s beat up. Orlando is likely missing a few key pieces as well. Fournier is definitely out. Gordon still hasn’t cleared the concussion protocol. When you add that to Tatum’s added role with Boston still thin, Tatum could be in for a nice night tonight.
Robert Covington ($6,200): Covington is back on track. I can safely say that now. His minutes are back up to 30+ per game. Covington also has at least 5x value in seven of the last eight games. This is not a great matchup against Brooklyn, but it’s good enough to consider Covington playing the way he is.
Dark Horses:
Marcus Morris ($5,900): Morris had a monster game against his twin on Wednesday. It wasn’t just that. Boston’s injuries opened up a lot of opportunities for Morris in the offense. With Brown and Kyrie at the least still out, most of those same opportunities should be there tonight against a weak Orlando team.
Justise Winslow ($5,700): Once again, the Heat are battling a myriad of injuries affecting almost every position. That allows guys like Winslow who normally play off the bench to either start or play huge minutes off the bench. I have my eye on Winslow particularly because he is the best rebounder with Hassan Whiteside off the court. Bam and Olynyk are mostly offensive players. That leaves Justise around to clean the glass, and gives him a high floor for DFS purposes.
Wayne Ellington ($4,400): Ellington was the main benefactor of the injury to Josh Richardson last game. Richardson is doubtful for tonight, which leaves Ellington as a very strong value play. Ellington is mostly a scorer, but he takes smart shots within the offense. 7x value is not out of the question tonight.
My pick: Morris(SF), Kuzma(F)
Power Forwards:
Best Bets:
Draymond Green ($8,600): The roles are flipped between Draymond and KD tonight. Durant is the questionable one, and Green is in for a monster game if Durant is unable to go. I don’t trust Durant at his price, but I do love Green at this price if Durant doesn’t play. Of course, we wont have official word by the time the whole contest locks. However, at worst Green is a decent play. His whole value doesn’t hinge on the status of Durant, so I’m willing to roll with him anyway.
Julius Randle ($8,200): Right now, it looks like Randle can handle anyone. Miami presents a tougher matchup, but the Heat aren’t at full strength right now. Randle wont have to deal with Whiteside, and he has a huge size advantage over Winslow and James Johnson. There is still potential for Randle tonight.
Honorable Mention:
Tobias Harris ($7,300): It looks like Melo is back, so using the player attacking Melo is usually a good idea for DFS purposes. Harris has been freed from a bit of DFS purgatory called Detroit. Of course, we saw Harris start the season strong only to disappear for a couple of months. That could always happen here as well, but there is not reason not to use Harris since he is rolling.
Dario Saric ($6,300): Saric torched one New York team last night. Can he complete the Big Apple sweep by roughing up the Nets? It’s certainly possible. Saric has 68 DraftKings points in 57 minutes against Brooklyn this year. Saric continues to be a solid play in any game for the Sixers.
Carmelo Anthony ($5,900): Say what you will about Melo, but he has accepted a reduced role with no complaining, and can still put up points in a hurry. This is especially crucial if Paul George is out again. Melo has scored 42 points over the last two games with George ailing. Look for him to be an integral part of the offense again if George is unable to go.
Dark Horses:
Serge Ibaka ($5,300): Ibaka has quietly put together a string of three straight games with over 5x value. He put on a clinic against Dallas in the first meeting. Dallas isn’t much better on the interior now than they were then. There is solid value on Ibaka again tonight.
James Johnson ($5,200): Johnson had a big game against the Kings on Wednesday. This was Johnson’s best game in well over a month. The decrease in minutes to allow Bam to play has sapped all of Johnson’s fantasy value, but with Winslow sliding up to the three, some more minutes opened up for Johnson. He responded with a double-double and 47.5 DraftKings points. If Johnson sees a lot of minutes again tonight, he is a great value play. Of course, we wont know the Miami lineups until well after the (stupid) full lineup lock.
Jerami Grant ($4,300): Grant has put up some good numbers with George out. Keep an eye on the status of Paul George. If he is out, Grant becomes a great value play along with Anthony.
My pick: Ibaka(PF)
Center:
Best Bets:
Joel Embiid ($9,500): Embiid has back to back 50+ DraftKings point games. Now he gets the ultimate reward for a center this year: he gets to play the Nets. The Nets are one of the worst teams on the interior in recent memory. Embiid is my only must-play on this slate. If for some reason he sits or is limited in the back to back, roll with Richaun Holmes. You want a Philadelphia center tonight.
DeAndre Jordan ($7,900): I don’t really trust Vucevic against Boston, but Jordan against the Thunder is a different story. On paper this is a tough matchup, but Jordan put up 76.75 DraftKings points in two games against the Thunder this season. Jordan’s production has been very good with Griffin gone.
Honorable Mention:
Jonas Valanciunas ($6,800): Valanciunas now has seven straight games with at least 30 DraftKings points. That given him a pretty good floor for a great matchup against Dallas. I find it tough to fade Embiid tonight, but that is what the UTIL slot is for. Valanciunas could be in for another big game.
Kelly Olynyk ($6,000): Lost among all the injuries for the Heat is just how well Olynyk is contributing across all categories. He has become a nice commodity in DFS because of his passing ability. The Lakers are still pretty weak defensively on the interior. Randle hasn’t refined that part of his game yet. That leaves Olynyk as a strong value pick again tonight.
Dark Horses:
Zaza Pachulia ($4,600): Pachulia has put up 74.75 DraftKings points over the last two games. Being one of the few healthy bodies on this team has been a big boost to his fantasy value. The problem with this is that Draymond is back tonight. If Green picks up a lot of minutes inside, Pachulia will go back to being a non-factor. However, if Durant is out, there may still be enough minutes for Zaza. After all, he has outplayed Jordan Bell the last couple of games.
Nerlens Noel ($3,800): Dallas has Noel on a strict diet of about 20 minutes per game, but more often than not, Noel has been at or above 5x value. He is a solid floor value pick at this price, which is pretty hard to come by. Dallas isn’t going to increase his workload anytime soon, so there is little upside, but Noel is still a great way to save money.
My pick: Embiid(C), Valanciunas(UTIL)
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