[live_blog_entry id=”LBE47″ author=”28954″]The first round of the 2018 NCAA Tournament has sent home talented freshmen DeAndre Ayton, Mo Bamba, Michael Porter Jr, and Trae Young. However, University of Maryland Baltimore County has redefined “one-and-done” for the foreseeable future by pulling off the biggest upset in tournament history and defeating the number one overall seed in the tournament in the defining moment of this year’s action.
[/live_blog_entry][live_blog_entry id=”LBE46″ author=”28125″]While no one has arguably had a better night than Ryan Odom, Jairus Lyles, and KJ Maura, one could make an argument for this UMBC fan, who had the fortune of watching his Retrievers pull the greatest upset in NCAA tournament history while in Las Vegas. https://twitter.com/SamHustis/status/974855395138154498
[/live_blog_entry][live_blog_entry title=”Yes, that WAS really the biggest upset in NCAA Tournament history” author=”28125″ id=”LBE45″]There is no doubt — UMBC’s upset of Virginia is the biggest upset in the history of the NCAA tournament. And it’s not because the 16-seed Retrievers beat a top seed for the first time in 135 attempts. We looked at various statistics that weigh the strength of each team, and since there has never been an upset that truly compares to what Ryan Odom and his UMBC coaching staff achieved Friday night, we researched all of the notable 15-2 March Madness upsets going back nearly three decades, and none of those bracket busting games come close to the disparity of UMBC’s endeavor.
First, we measured the SRS differential between all of those upset-achieving squads. A metric devised by College Basketball Reference, SRS (or Simple Rating System) takes into account the average point differential and strength of schedule, and it’s a handy tool to judge how much better those top seeds were entering the first round than their opponents. Prior to UMBC-Virginia, the largest SRS margin was 2012’s Norfolk State-Missouri (23.45); next was Giddy Potts and Middle Tennessee’s victory against Michigan State (21.57; the Spartans had the field’s second highest SRS); third involved Steve Merfield jumping into the arms of his Hampton Pirates following a win against Iowa State (19.6)—the MEAC squad had the lowest SRS (-3.7) of any of the eight 15-2 upsets.
Entering the 2018 NCAA Tournament, Virginia — per KenPom — had a 17.6 percent chance of winning the title, the second best odds to any team save Villanova. UMBC, on the other hand, ranked fifth from last. The Retrievers had just a 2.4 percent chance of springing the upset. While the Cavaliers’ SRS didn’t lead Division I, it was in the top five (23.74), whereas UMBC’s SRS hovered squarely in the bottom half of DI play (-3.79), which means the SRS margin was a whopping 27.53, by far the largest differential of any upset since the tournament added seeds in the mid-1980s.
But let’s not stop there. What about KenPom’s Adjusted Efficiency Margin, which used to be known as his “Pythagorean winning percentage” (or Pyth)? Using that metric, the margin of UMBC-Virginia tops all other upsets as well: 15.86. Not only will this game be remembered on par with “Do you believe in miracles?” of the 1980 Winter Olympics, but it’ll set a few records. No one predicted the America East auto-bid winner would achieve this, and the game should be memorialized for both the shocking nature of the victory and also for how thoroughly UMBC caught the nation’s best defense (1.18 OPPP—highest PPP this season) completely unawares.
[/live_blog_entry][live_blog_entry id=”LBE44″ author=”28125″]After witnessing history, how can any other game tonight top that 16-1 upset?
[/live_blog_entry][live_blog_entry id=”LBE43″ author=”28954″]IT’S ALL HAPPENING!
[/live_blog_entry][live_blog_entry id=”LBE42″ author=”32707″]Jairus Lyles has had a huge game for UMBC, and it’s very clear to me that he is a fan of Kyrie Irving. Lots of fancy finishes around the rim & smooth dribble moves w/ the ball in his hands. He has the exact same FT routine & accessories; even his mannerisms and the way he moves are the same.
[/live_blog_entry][live_blog_entry id=”LBE41″ author=”28125″]Much has been made about De’Andre Hunter’s absence for Virginia—the star freshman forward will miss the NCAA tournament with a wrist injury—but for the most part, those same much ados have centered on how UVA is too talented this season to let an injury derail Tony Bennett’s title quest. But, as we’re seeing in this Round of 64 potential upset, Hunter was very much the team’s catalyst on both sides of the ball: Per Hooplens.com, the Cavaliers’ efficiency margin pairing Hunter with Isaiah Wilkins together on the floor in tier A games was +.27 (1.15 PPP/.88 OPPP); when Wilkins shared the frontcourt with Jack Salt, that EM dipped to +.06 (1.01 PPP/.95 OPPP). Hunter was the team’s glue on both sides of the ball, and without him, the squad is a facsimile of the UVA that earned the tournament’s second overall seed.
[/live_blog_entry][live_blog_entry id=”LBE40″ image=”1410474″ author=”26935″]Remember when the New York Times election meter thing was all the hotness? Well, in March, it’s been replaced by FiveThirtyEight’s live probability scores for the NCAA Tournament. And now, with UMBC up 16 over No. 1 seed Virginia with 11:39 to play, the site gives them an 87 percent chance of winning. This really might be happening.
[/live_blog_entry][live_blog_entry id=”LBE39″ author=”28125″]Marek Dolezaj uses roughly 13 percent of Syracuse’s possessions, and the 6-foot-9 freshman has attempted just 121 field goals in 2018, and yet the Cuse newcomer has been the highlight of the 11-seed’s first half performance against No. 6 TCU, losing by one point, 28-27, at half. The big scored 13 points—his second highest point total this season—and his introduction to the Orange statistical profile likely caught Jamie Dixon and his coaching staff by surprise, so it’s not a mirage that after dropping those 13 points in the first 17 minutes, Dolezaj didn’t score again the rest of the half.
[/live_blog_entry][live_blog_entry id=”LBE38″ title=”Not No. 1 on social media, apparently” author=”28125″]Not only is UMBC tied with No. 1 Virginia at half, but the Retrievers are pwning random dudes all over the internet https://twitter.com/UMBCAthletics/status/974834008520577024
[/live_blog_entry][live_blog_entry id=”LBE37″ author=”28954″]Syracuse doing a good job of replicating Duke’s 2-3 zone against TCU. While the Orange don’t have a Marvin Bagley III or Wendell Carter down low they possess enough length to make life difficult for Jaime Dixon’s team.
[/live_blog_entry][live_blog_entry id=”LBE36″ author=”28125″]In another episode of statistical oddities, UMBC and Virginia each grabbed one offensive rebound, and while that’s on trend for teams ranked 219th and 250th, respectively, in offensive rebounding percentage, it is nonetheless surprising.
[/live_blog_entry][live_blog_entry id=”LBE35″ title=”Welp” author=”26935″]It’s almost Michael Porter Jr. time. That is all.
[/live_blog_entry][live_blog_entry id=”LBE34″ author=”26935″]Kansas State gets by Creighton without Dean Wade, but if the Wildcats are going to make any noise (presumably) against No. 1 seed Virginia on Sunday, they’ll need the big man back. Wade’s averaging 16.5 points, 6.3 rebounds and 2.8 assists per contest this season. He’s the exact type of play-making, shot-making power forward who could give the Cavaliers trouble following De’Andre Hunter’s injury.
[/live_blog_entry][live_blog_entry id=”LBE33″ author=”28954″]This is the moment Miles Bridges came back for. After a rather rudimentary beginning to his second NCAA Tournament appearance, Bridges has caught fire in the last two possessions. First a rim-rattling poster tip dunk that was followed up by a pull up three-pointer. A good and deep run through the tournament could help him recoup some of the millions that he potentially lost in bypassing a shot at the draft a year ago.
[/live_blog_entry][live_blog_entry id=”LBE32″ title=”Don’t watch Auburn-Charleston” author=”26935″]If you’re reading this, don’t watch the Auburn-Charleston game.
[/live_blog_entry][live_blog_entry id=”LBE31″ author=”26935″]A few years back, Baylor’s Taurean Prince gave us the quote of the tournament when he mocked a reporter’s question about how the Bears got outrebounded in an upset loss to Yale. This year, we’ve got Georgia State head coach Ron Hunter bringing the rebounding spice while poking fun at a reporter’s outlet. Hunter’s one of college basketball’s most enjoyable quotes. https://twitter.com/BennettDurando/status/974751292454309888
[/live_blog_entry][live_blog_entry id=”LBE30″ author=”28125″]Four-seed Auburn is tied at halftime with 13-seed College of Charleston. Arizona was spectacularly bounced last night by Buffalo, as was Miami (by Loyola), and Louisville, Oklahoma State, and USC didn’t even get an invite to the dance. Will the Tigers pull through and end the trend of the programs linked to the FBI’s fraud probe? Or has the release of those late September indictments and the subsequent investigation cursed all those affected?
[/live_blog_entry][live_blog_entry id=”LBE28″ author=”28125″]Signs Bucknell’s 14-3 upset bid may be in trouble—when Xavier Tillman, a 6-foot-8 frosh who has been scoreless 12 games this season, already has six points and made Jaren Jackson (for this game, at least) superfluous.
[/live_blog_entry][live_blog_entry id=”LBE29″ title=”Does Texas Souther stand a chance? ” author=”26935″]Texas Southern jumped out to an early lead against Xavier and inspired some hope it might become the first No. 16 seed to catch a No. 1. Then JP Macura took that hope and punted it to the moon. He’s got 18 at the under four timeout in the first half. Xavier leads by 18 after a 33-8 run.
[/live_blog_entry][live_blog_entry id=”LBE27″ title=”Izzo finally crossing a Bridges?” author=”26935″]Flipped over to Bucknell-Michigan State for the end of the first half and noticed Miles Bridges on the court next to Nick Ward with no other bigs in sight. Many have been clamoring for Tom Izzo to return Bridges to the power forward spot, which is where he spent all of his time last season. It’s his more natural position and creates a lot of mismatches offensively. Consider this: per Hoop Lens, in the 101 possessions this season when Izzo went to a Bridges-Ward frontcourt, the Spartans averaged a ridiculous 1.31 points per possession. Maybe Izzo’s finally making the switch now that March is here.
[/live_blog_entry][live_blog_entry id=”LBE26″ title=”The Marcus Foster Revenge Game” author=”26935″]The Marcus Foster Revenge Game hasn’t involved much revenge or Marcus Foster. The former Kansas State guard and current Creighton player has zero points on 0-for-5 shooting from the field so far. Foster’s acrimonious breakup with old head coach Bruce Weber figured to be one of the more interesting stories of the first round, but it’ll be a lot less interesting if Foster never shows up.
[/live_blog_entry][live_blog_entry id=”LBE25″ title=”Shaka Strong” author=”28954″]Shaka Smart is to Texas basketball as Charlie Strong is to Texas football
[/live_blog_entry][live_blog_entry id=”LBE24″ author=”28120″]And there was Bamba with a gigantic offensive rebound and finish. He isn’t super skilled offensively but his size is giving Nevada problems on the glass.[/live_blog_entry][live_blog_entry id=”LBE23″ title=”Prepare your nails for the ending to Texas-Nevada” author=”28120″]Texas and Nevada looks like it will be coming down to the final buzzer. It will be interesting to see if Texas can generate enough offense to hold on. They have gotten the ball to the rim recently but if Nevada can tighten up on the perimeter it will be fun down the stretch. Mo Bamba isn’t actually hitting anyone with his screens meaning his guards aren’t getting much help creating separation and Bamba isn’t forcing switches or getting open as a roller. He may have to make a big play on the offensive glass late for Texas stay ahead.
[/live_blog_entry][live_blog_entry id=”LBE22″ title=”Time for a Dan Muller well-being check” author=”28125″]It sounds like Kansas head coach Bill Self is optimistic he’ll be able to use center Udoka Azubuike tomorrow against Seton Hall. Self said he hoped Azubuike could play 15-20 minutes. The sophomore missed the Big 12 conference tournament with an MCL sprain and played scarcely against Penn in the Jayhawks’ opener. Azubuike is an important piece of the Kansas offense where he provides an interior threat to draw the attention of the defense. Meanwhile, Self’s going to need all the frontcourt bodies he can get on the other end of the floor against the Pirates. Seton Hall ranks 28th nationally in offensive rebound rate and senior Angel Delgado is one of the country’s dominant forces on the glass.
[/live_blog_entry][live_blog_entry id=”LBE21″ title=”Kansas will need Udoka Azubuike ” author=”26935″]It sounds like Kansas head coach Bill Self is optimistic he’ll be able to use center Udoka Azubuike tomorrow against Seton Hall. Self said he hoped Azubuike could play 15-20 minutes. The sophomore missed the Big 12 conference tournament with an MCL sprain and played scarcely against Penn in the Jayhawks’ opener. Azubuike is an important piece of the Kansas offense where he provides an interior threat to draw the attention of the defense. Meanwhile, Self’s going to need all the frontcourt bodies he can get on the other end of the floor against the Pirates. Seton Hall ranks 28th nationally in offensive rebound rate and senior Angel Delgado is one of the country’s dominant forces on the glass.
[/live_blog_entry][live_blog_entry id=”LBE20″ title=”Shots fired in the MVC” author=”24492″]https://twitter.com/DanMuller/status/974734961516449792
https://twitter.com/DanMuller/status/974408516764078082
[/live_blog_entry][live_blog_entry id=”LBE19″ title=”A rough night for Shamet” author=”25669″]Landry Shamet’s rough night continues with that all-backboard 3-point bomb, which lowered his efficiency to 23 percent from the field in what might be his final college game. The taste of a Shocker loss and this miserable shooting performance are not what the redshirt sophomore hoped to leave in scouts’ mouths heading into the tournament as a No. 4 seed.
[/live_blog_entry][live_blog_entry id=”LBE18″ title=”Welcome to March” author=”26935″]WELCOME TO MARCH. NO BASKETBALL HERE. JUST VIDEO REVIEWS.
[/live_blog_entry][live_blog_entry id=”LBE17″ title=”D’Antoni’s do what D’Antoni’s do” author=”24492″]https://twitter.com/SInow/status/974726178291544065
[/live_blog_entry][live_blog_entry id=”LBE16″ title=”This is March” author=”26935″]JON ELMORE VS. CONNER FRANKAMP IS THE MARCH MATCHUP WE ALL DREAMED OF.
[/live_blog_entry][live_blog_entry id=”LBE15″ title=”Penava on the inside” author=”28125″]With 18:21, Ajdin Penava, Marshall’s 6-foot-9 junior forward who blocks 11.8 percent of opponent’s attempts, drew his third foul in the team’s first round matchup with No. 4 Wichita State. Penava is the team’s defensive anchor, the lone Thundering Herd who can protect the interior, yet coach Dan D’Antoni didn’t immediately pull his big. Rather, realizing that Penava only commits five fouls per 40 minutes, the fourth year coach kept Penava in the game, and was immediately rewarded on both offense (Penava drew an And-1) and defense (two blocks). Unfortunately for the Conference USA squad, Penava only lasted five minutes before picking up his fourth foul, at which time D’Antoni didn’t want to ride his luck any further and benched Penava until at least the eight minute mark.
[/live_blog_entry][live_blog_entry id=”LBE14″ title=”SLAM” author=”25669″]Robert Williams puts the finishing touches on a monster second-half by sealing an Aggie victory. In the final minute of the game, Williams blocked a 3-pointer and leaked out for a full-rotation slam, probably the best dunk of the tournament so far. He ends the game with 13 points and 2 blocks.
mr massive catch radius pic.twitter.com/NDqNoJm60U
— Chimney Pipe (@LuckysPipe) March 16, 2018
[/live_blog_entry][live_blog_entry id=”LBE13″ title=”FOUL Trouble” author=”26935″]
College basketball coaches make some infuriating decisions and automatically benching a player with two fouls in the first half is right up there with forgoing 2-for-1s at the end of halves. Cincinnati’s Mick Cronin currently has star Jacob Evans on the bench after he picked up a pair of fouls in the first half. Nevermind Evans averages just 2.5 fouls per 40 minutes and probably can be trusted to not pick up a third.
[/live_blog_entry][live_blog_entry id=”LBE12″ image=”1410153″ title=”Marshall is bananas” author=”28125″]Near the end of the first half, No. 13 seed Marshall has scored 1.14 points per possession. This is surprising. While the Thundering Herd, coached by Dan D’Antoni, a believer in all things corner 3s and lay-ups, scored 1.09 points per possession during the regular season, the squad rode a ridiculous hot streak to the Conference USA title game, dropping a whopping 1.18 PPP in a three-game span. But Marshall also lost in non-conference play to Morehead State and Illinois, so does that make the squad any less worthy of extending that CUSA hot streak into March Madness?
While no one can ever predict the chaos of March, understanding whether a team can sustain peak play centers on personnel and playing style. For example, nearly 40 percent of the Herd return from a year ago, and as this is the fourth year of D’Antoni’s tenure at Marshall, he has recruited the type of player comfortable playing within his freewheeling-yet-structured offense. The team is capable of executing the gameplan on a subconscious level, and that matters when sometimes it just comes down to a single bucket to determine whether a team advances. So even though Marshall may have underachieved in Conference USA play, and though some may discount their postseason romp on the grounds of that inconsistency, teams like Marshall — or Providence, or Texas Tech — be prepared for your bracket to implode.
[/live_blog_entry][live_blog_entry id=”LBE11″ image=”1410154″ title=”Shocking results from the Shocker[live_blog_entry title=”D’Marcus Simonds making his mark” author=”28125″]
D’Marcus Simonds is the tournament’s ultimate NBA draft sleeper. A sophomore, Simonds shoulders the brunt of Georgia State’s offense — the coupling of Simonds’ absurd usage rate (36 percent) and offensive rating (1.008 PPP) is astounding — and he utilizes his athleticism and funky quick release to stymie opposing guards, scoring just under 1 point per isolation possession. Coach Ron Hunter, though, has found it more effective this season to allow the 6-foot-3 guard to operate in pick-and-roll possessions (19.5 percent, per Synergy Sports), which has added a new element to the Panther offense; opponents have to decide whether to try and contain Simonds (who scores .79 points per pick) or his teammates (.93 PPP, a rate that ranks 35th in Division I).
[/live_blog_entry][live_blog_entry id=”LBE10″ title=”U2? ” author=”25669″]Ah, yes, U2, the perfect soundtrack for hard-fought basketball games, competitive rivalries, and all of us bickering on the internet. CBS really knows how to dial up the tone of the sports it broadcasts. Related question: is there ANY sport for which U2 makes sense as theme music?
[/live_blog_entry][live_blog_entry id=”LBE9″ title=”Purdue needs Nojel Eastern” author=”28125″]
Nojel Eastern, Purdue’s lone freshman that plays nearly a third of the team’s minutes (Matt Haarms is a redshirt frosh), only scored two points in the first half of the Boilermakers’ first round match-up with No. 15 Cal State Fullerton, but the 6-foot-6 wing is currently on the midst of a hot streak. He scored 11 points in the Big Ten tournament, showcasing a still developing skillset, and his evolution takes pressure off Vincent Edwards and Ryan Cline, both of which have endured roller coaster-like play the second half of 2018.
[/live_blog_entry][live_blog_entry id=”LBE8″ title=”Starbucks Dreams” author=”25669″]Shaquille Morris is what I look in the dreams I have where I do cooler stuff than work at Starbucks and blog about sports.
[/live_blog_entry][live_blog_entry id=”LBE7″ title=”ZING” author=”28954″]In one possession, the Marshall Thundering Herd have already played more defense than any other D’Antoni coached team in basketball history.
[/live_blog_entry][live_blog_entry id=”LBE6″ title=”Robert Williams is an enigma” author=”25669″]We’re seeing exactly what makes Robert Williams so infuriating as a NBA prospect, and why a big like Daniel Gafford has risen above him in many people’s minds. Williams takes the Aggie defense to another level when he’s on the court, as we see when he is able to switch screens and contest jumpers by guards. Yet he’s also sitting on two fouls through 18 minutes in a tough matchup against Providence, and the team needs him to show more on offense if they are to move on the Round of 32.
[/live_blog_entry][live_blog_entry id=”LBE5″ image=”1410067″ author=”28125″]Senior guard Jevon Carter is the heart of West Virginia’s pressure defense, a gameplan that has come to be known as Press Virginia the past three seasons. Carter’s steal rate ranks within the top ten of KenPom’s database (4.6 percent), and the 6-foot-2 Carter often guards the opponent’s most offensively explosive player, using his tenacity, quickness, and innate knowledge to frustrate and confuse. According to coach Bob Huggins, though, the reason he ended up in Morgantown was pure happenstance. Equipped with a “big cup of coffee,” Huggins was up early, scouting a summer period AAU tournament several years ago, when he stumbled on Carter—”he was on the furthest court away you could be on…this guy’s pressing at 8 AM. No one else on his team was pressing. it’s just him…pressuring people from end line to end line.”
Though he is taciturn, Huggins is one of the game’s great raconteurs, a throwback to the days when coaches could post up and hold others enthralled for hours, and how he informed his assistant coaches about the need to sign Carter is a classic Huggins’ tale.
https://twitter.com/WVUhoops/status/974427526046142464
[/live_blog_entry][live_blog_entry id=”LBE4″ title=”Live shot of Texas A&M’s offense” author=”24492″]
[/live_blog_entry][live_blog_entry id=”LBE3″ image=”1312923″ title=”What a difference a few months make” author=”28125″]
At one point, Texas A&M was thought to be a national title contender in 2018, and Providence was projected to push Villanova for the top spot in the Big East. Now, though, the two teams are locked in a classic 10-7 seed NCAA tournament battle, to see which will play either No. 2 North Carolina or No. 15 Lipscomb (it’s March, people!) in the second round. Of the two, the Friars have all the momentum: PC defeated Creighton and Xavier — both in overtime — during the Big East tournament, before pushing the No. 1 Wildcats to overtime in the Big East final. We all know about Kyron Cartwright, but the key for Providence’s surge is Alpha Diallo, a sophomore guard who made 57 percent of his 2s in conference postseason play. Meanwhile, the Aggies, without lead point guard Duane Wilson, dropped their first SEC tournament game, and will have to depend on their massive frontcourt for any sort of March Madness ride.
[/live_blog_entry][live_blog_entry id=”LBE2″ title=”Time to get started” author=”28954″]Day two of the 2018 NCAA Tournament is underway. Arizona is still trying to clean the egg off their face from their upset kiss at the hands of Buffalo last night (and the ensuing embarrassment of jokes on social media), but if March Madness has taught us anything it’s that anything can happen on any given day. Today teams like Clemson (vs New Mexico State), Auburn (vs Charleston), West Virginia (vs Murray State), and Wichita State (vs Marshall) are on upset alert. Arizona was a popular Final Four pick for many, could we possibly lose a second in as many days? Outside of Arizona and Miami getting shown the door, almost of yesterday’s games were chalk. Is today the day that brackets truly become busted? We’ll find out as we get another 12-plus hours of basketball today.
[/live_blog_entry][live_blog_entry id=”LBE1″ image=”1409658″ title=”3 things you need to know from Day 1″ author=”24492″]1. The college careers of Trae Young and Deandre Ayton are likely over. Young led the NCAA in board scoring and assists this season but couldn’t carry his subpar supporting cast past the Rhode Island Rams in overtime yesterday. Ayton is considered a generational big man talent but his Arizona Wildcats were blown out by Buffalo. Ayton has already stated he’s leaving for the NBA and it’s hard to imagine Young won’t follow, both are projected to be picked in the top eight picks. Two elite talents gone too soon.
2. Tennessee is good. They smashed Wright State by 26 points yesterday, a quiet blowout among the more exciting close games. They have the fifth-most efficient defense in the NCAA and could be a serious threat to Cincinnati in their end of the bracket.
3. New heroes — Rob Gray, Shae Gilgeous-Alexander and Collin Sexton all stood out (among many others yesterday) with huge performances to carry their teams. Sexton had 25 points and 6 assists for the Crimson Tide, who wouldn’t have been here if not for his heroics in the SEC Tournament. Gilgeous-Alexander had 19 points, 7 assists and 5 huge steals for the Kentucky Wildcats as they survived a pesky Davidson squad. Gray was a monster for Houston — 39 points, 8 rebounds, 4-of-6 on 3-pointers and 11-of-15 from the free throw line. All three are guys to pay attention to in the second round.
[/live_blog_entry]