DraftKings NBA Picks March 18: Davis is easily the best option

OKLAHOMA CITY, OK – DECEMBER 25: Oklahoma City Thunder guard Cameron Payne #22 reacts during the first half of a NBA game against the Minnesota Timberwolves at the Chesapeake Energy Arena on December 25, 2016 in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. (Photo by J Pat Carter/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Picks March 18: Davis is easily the best option

There are only four total games in the NBA today. Only three of them take place in the evening. The Thunder/Raptors afternoon tilt is left out, which is a huge disappointment. We lose the value of Corey Brewer, and the star power of Westbrook and Lowry.

There are still stars at night, and a little bit of value to go around if Kyrie Irving is still out. Are Harden or A.D. worth paying for? Let’s check it out!

Point Guards:

Best Bets:

Damian Lillard ($9,700): Detroit didn’t look like a great matchup for Lillard last night. He responded with 53.75 DraftKings points. Fading Lillard is a risky proposition right now. He has 91 DraftKings points in two games against the Clippers so far this year. Lillard has only been under 42 DraftKings points once in the last three weeks. He is worth paying for on a short slate.

Chris Paul ($7,800): With only six starting options on a night like tonight, pickings, and even pivot plays, can get pretty thin. Not here. Minnesota is still rather awful defending the point. Paul put up 45 on a similarly awful team in New Orleans last night. Paul has averaged 41.5 DraftKings points in three games against Minnesota this season. This is another very good matchup for Paul.

Honorable Mention:

Kyrie Irving ($7,800): Given the fact that the MRI on Irving’s knee was negative early in the week and he traveled with the team on the road trip, it seems plausible that he would return tonight. This is the early game, so we will know for sure whether Irving is in the lineup. If Irving plays against New Orleans without limitation, I definitely want him in my lineup after seeing what Paul did to them last night. If Irving is out again, Terry Rozier is a very strong alternative.

Jeff Teague ($5,900): Teague has put up 91 DraftKings points in three games against Houston this season. That puts Teague right at 5x value. There is a good chance that 250 will place us on a three game slate. Teague could be a suitable value pick to save money for either Brow or Beard.

Dark Horses:

Rajon Rondo ($5,500): The Pelicans rested Rondo last night, which is kind of unfortunate for DFS purposes. This is a tougher matchup for Rondo, but there are a couple of factors that could make this a reasonable play. The first is the status of Kyrie Irving. If he is out, Rondo will have a much better chance at hitting value. Another, Rondo still put up 30.25 DraftKings points in the first game against the Celtics. Rondo is a reasonable play, and is always a threat to put up big assist numbers.

Milos Teodosic ($4,300): Teodosic put up a respectable 21.75 DraftKings points in the first meeting with Portland. We have seen him disappear at times for the Clippers, which makes him a risky play. However, with his price this low, this is one of the few spots to actually save some money tonight.

My pick: Teague(PG), Rondo(G); Lillard(PG), Teodosic(G)

DALLAS, TX – MARCH 11: James Harden #13 of the Houston Rockets sits on the bench during play against the Dallas Mavericks at American Airlines Center on March 11, 2018 in Dallas, Texas. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images) /

Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

James Harden ($11,000): Harden had a big game last night, coming within two assists of a triple double. That should make him a lock tonight. However, it doesn’t for me. Harden has only averaged 49.3 DraftKings points in three games against Minnesota this year. I think a lot of that has to do with Paul’s success against Minnesota. If Harden gets you under 50 at this price, it puts a big strain on the rest of your lineup on a short slate.

Jrue Holiday ($7,900): With only three games going on, you can’t automatically dismiss someone based solely on defensive stats. Despite Boston being strong defensively at the guard positions, Holiday put up 47 DraftKings points on them in the first meeting. Holiday has only been under 45 DraftKings points once in the last eight games. He looks like a suitable fade option to Harden.

Honorable Mention:

C.J. McCollum ($7,100): CJ has been efficient during Lillard recent hot stretch. That’s something to note for DFS purposes on a short slate. While McCollum hasn’t been much over value in quite a while, he has stayed in the 30’s in all but one of the last dozen games. That gives McCollum a solid floor, and with that kind of efficiency, CJ could erupt with an off night from Lillard.

Andrew Wiggins ($6,100): Wiggins’ price has settled back down to an acceptable range. The emergence of Bjelica has cut in on Wiggins’ action, but lost in that is the fact that Wiggins has hit value at this price in eight of the last nine games. He has little upside in this offense right now, but something can be said for a sure 5x value on a short slate.

Dark Horses:

Evan Turner ($4,200): Turner is a decent dart throw for the price here. Portland uses a deep rotation, but Turner is a lock for 25-30 minutes per game. Whether that results in production or not depends on the night. At any rate, Turner is usually around the 17-25 DraftKings point mark.

Jamal Crawford ($3,600): Crawford is the main bench scorer for Minnesota, but that is all he does. As we saw against the Spurs last night, he isn’t always a sure thing. However, if you need to save money, Crawford is usually right around 5x value. That makes him worth a look on a short slate.

My pick: Wiggins(SG), Crawford(UTIL); Crawford(SG)

ATLANTA, GA – NOVEMBER 09: Nemanja Bjelica #88 of the Minnesota Timberwolves reacts after hitting a basket against the Atlanta Hawks at Philips Arena on November 9, 2015 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images) /

Small Forwards:

Best Bets:

Marcus Morris ($6,000): Injuries have led to a larger role for Morris lately, but that could all change with the return of Irving. Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart are still out though, which means Morris should still continue to see starter’s minutes. That gives him a healthy shot at 5x value even at the elevated price.

Nemanja Bjelica ($5,600): The Spurs were the first team in about two weeks to really limit Bjelica. Houston is not a great matchup for him either, but with his expanded role in the offense, Bjelica is still a solid pick in this price range. He doesn’t have a lot of upside, but Bjelica should have lower ownership, which could end up being better than upside.

Honorable Mention:

Trevor Ariza ($4,700): Ariza is never going to be a big factor in the offense, but his defense is top notch. That keeps Ariza with a decent floor. Don’t get me wrong, he can score if the other teams ignores him. Ariza put up 17 points on the Pelicans last night. Just don’t expect that on a nightly basis. With Ariza you are paying for steals and rebounds.

Al-Farouq Aminu ($4,400): Aminu seems to have recovered from a lengthy slump considering he has 65.75 DraftKings points over the last two games. The Clippers still have decent size up front, so we should see a lot of Aminu again tonight. That not only makes him safe for DFS purposes, it makes him a popular value target.

Dark Horses:

E’Twaun Moore ($3,900): Moore is an afterthought on this team for DFS purposes, but he still plays more than 30 minutes per game. Moore has quietly put up double digit points in seven of the last nine games. This consistent scoring makes Moore a solid value pick, but he has no upside at all.

Maurice Harkless ($3,500): Harkless still carries a bit of risk, even though his minutes have remained pretty solid. He has back to back games of double digit scoring, but that has been a rare thing this year. Harkless is playing well enough that he is worth a look at this low price on a short slate, but there isn’t much reward for the risk here.

My pick: Aminu(SF); Aminu(SF), Moore(UTIL)

LOS ANGELES, CA – FEBRUARY 17: Tobias Harris #34 of the Los Angeles Clippers competes in the 2018 JBL Three-Point Contest at Staples Center on February 17, 2018 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images) /

Power Forwards:

Best Bets:

Anthony Davis ($11,400): The Celtics had no answer for Davis in the first meeting. Brow shredded them for 75 DraftKings points in that game. The Pelicans have leaned heavily on Davis since Boogie went down. Houston and San Antonio have done a solid job of holding him under wraps. That changes tonight. Davis is going to be the highest scorer of the night, and it wont be close. You have to pay for him here.

Tobias Harris ($7,500): Harris continues to play well as a Clipper. I don’t know that I would use him as a straight up substitute for Davis tonight, but there is no reason we can’t have both. Portland is a decent team up front, but not great. Harris has at least 40 DraftKings points in five of the last seven games. I’m thinking it goes to six of eight after tonight.

Honorable Mention:

Al Horford ($6,900): I usually shy away from Horford due to the large amount of talent for Boston, but with Kyrie possibly out and likely limited, this could be a pretty good spot for Horford at this price. Horford got 18 shots on Friday, and even though he struggled from the field, the volume makes him worth a look. I like this play less if Irving is at full strength, but even then, Horford wont be useless. There is still some value here.

Nikola Mirotic ($5,000): Mirotic is a very good shooter, so there is interesting value whenever the Pelicans are in action. However, it seems that the team has mostly phased him out for the defense of Okafor. That hurts his DFS value. So does the emergence of Holiday. However, Mirotic is still a relatively cheap option against a weaker interior. He could end up being the separation you need tonight. Or he could totally screw your lineup. There may be no in between.

Dark Horses:

Ed Davis ($3,900): Davis could see a few more minutes tonight with the smaller Harris spending a lot of time at the four. At any rate, Davis still sees around 20 minutes per game. His rebounding gives him a decent floor, but there is no upside, and there is always a risk that Davis is not at all involved in the offense.

Zach Collins ($3,400): Collins does better against smaller teams, and the Clippers are relatively small on the second team if they use Harrell at center. Collins has struggled to get consistent minutes, which had led to him struggling with consistency. He is a dart throw at this point, but Collins was getting decent run until the recent run of big teams.

My pick: A. Davis(PF); A. Davis(PF), Harris(F)

LOS ANGELES, CA – FEBRUARY 18: Karl-Anthony Towns #32 of Team Stephen takes the ball down court during the NBA All-Star Game 2018 at Staples Center on February 18, 2018 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images) /

Center:

Best Bets:

Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,400): Towns has averaged 56.3 DraftKings points per game in three meetings with Houston this season. Towns has struggled against good defensive teams lately though, so there is a little cause for concern. That said, Towns has done a number on Capela this year. If you still have money after paying for Brow, see if you can pair him with Towns.

DeAndre Jordan ($7,700): Jordan continues to pile up tons of rebounds. He has at least 18 boards in six straight games. That leaves Jordan as a very low risk proposition, even if he doesn’t contribute much on offense. He has been lately though, which has made Jordan a nice value pick at this price.

Honorable Mention:

Clint Capela ($6,400): If you are looking for production for your dollar, Capela is a solid pick. He has averaged 34 DraftKings points per game in three tries against Minnesota this year. Capela is back on track after a rough stretch against the other Texas teams. He is a safe pick against the Timberwolves tonight.

Jusuf Nurkic ($6,300): Nurkic is a bit of a risk since his role is dwindling lately. Still, Portland is going to need his size against Jordan, so Nurkic should get decent run tonight. He has put up 69 DraftKings points in two games against the Clippers so far this year. There is hope for tonight.

Dark Horses:

Greg Monroe ($5,100): I have no idea why Boston remains so committed to Baynes over Monroe. Monroe has played well when given the chance. He has 68.25 DraftKings points in just 46 minutes over the last two games. Boston should need his size against New Orleans, so Monroe looks like a nice value play tonight.

Emeka Okafor ($3,600): Bigger teams have given Okafor trouble, but that wont be the case tonight. Boston is underzised up front, so Okafor could have more run tonight. However, he remains a risk due to an inconsistent role in the offense and fluctuating playing time.

My pick: Jordan, Monroe(F); Monroe(C)

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