NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Sunday March 18
Welcome to the Sunday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference, to help you build your best line-up and win big!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
Saturday’s NBA DFS slate was extremely high scoring as the cash line was as high as I could recall in recent weeks even in 50/50 and cash games. LeBron James was once again the top scorer on the slate with 74 fantasy points while James Harden (64) was the only other player to top the 60 fantasy point mark. The Warriors value back-court of Quinn Cook (44) and Nick Young (35) came through as one of the most popular bargain pairings on the slate and it was these kind of value plays which drove the scores higher as when built around the stars on the slate you had all the makings of a high scoring NBA DFS night!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
NBA DFS – Where to start on this slate:
We cap off the weekend with a decent looking three game slate with all six teams in action squarely in the playoff picture which adds some intrigue/stability to this NBA DFS slate.
#NEBHInjuryReport: Brad Stevens says that Kyrie Irving’s knee is feeling a little bit better today. Kyrie will do a workout at the arena, but will not play tonight. Al horford will return tonight after missing the past two games with an illness.
— Boston Celtics (@celtics) March 16, 2018
The biggest unknown on this slate is the status of Kyrie Irving ($14k) who has missed the last two games for Boston with a knee injury and although he traveled with the team to Orlando on Friday, was still ultimately held out. There has been little news I could find on how Kyrie is progressing but with the Celtics sitting comfortably in the #2 spot in the East, 5 games back of Toronto and 7 games in front of the Cavaliers, would it surprise anyone if the Celtics opted to hold Kyrie out again tonight?
The Celtics are already down Marcus Smart and Jaylen Brown which would continue to clear the way for Terry Rozier ($13.9K) to log major minutes in the Celtics back court again tonight. Over the last two games, Rozier has put up 35 and 51 fantasy points including the double OT performance against the Wizards and if he were to receive the start again tonight it would be tough to pass on him in this spot.
The Celtics-Pelicans game has the fastest projected pace and Boston sees the largest pace boost on the slate so this is a great game environment to build around with Rozier as New Orleans is giving up the 6th most FPPG to opposing PG’s over the last 10 games with 54.
If Kyrie is ultimately ruled in and has no minutes restriction, it is worth noting that on FantasyDraft specifically, Rozier and Kyrie are priced only $100 different so it is easy enough to swap out within the same roster build once we get confirmation on th Celtics star.
The other big thing to consider on this slate is we have three teams in action that are on the tail-end of a back-to-back while playing 3 games in 4 nights so there is potential for some tired legs with the Pelicans, Rockets and Blazers. The other three teams are not exactly well rested either as Minnesota is on a B2B, the Clippers are playing 3 games in 4 nights and the Celtics are in the midst of 2 games in 3 nights so the grind is very real.
NBA DFS – Core Build:
After a tough loss on Saturday night to the Rockets, the Pelicans now find themselves sitting in the #8 spot in the West only 1.5 games ahead of the Clippers who sit just outside of the playoff picture.
The @PelicansNBA Alvin Gentry going off about poor officiating in Nola’s close loss to Rockets. “All we want is a fairly called game. I’ll take the fine, I’ll pay it because I haven’t said anything all year and I’m sick and tired of it.”
— Jennifer Hale (@JenHale504) March 18, 2018
With the Pelicans clinging to their playoff lives and after witnessing the post game rant from coach Alvin Gentry, it would not shock me at all to see the Pelicans come out firing tonight. Anthony Davis ($20.9K) has failed to top 50 fantasy points in each of his last two games but he absolutely dominated this Boston team earlier this season when he dropped 75 fantasy points in a game where DeMarcus Cousins was still available.
Jrue Holiday ($14.8K) put up 45 fantasy points last night and 48 fantasy points in his previous meeting with Boston so you can go right back to him again this evening as a one-off or as a pairing with The Brow in this game. Rajon Rondo ($10.8K) got the night off last night for rest purposes and now gets a #RevengeNarrative spot against the Celtics team he put 33 on earlier this season so you know I am going to have me some Rondo tonight because narratives never lie!
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If you want to stack this game up with the Pelicans “Big 3” and Rozier/Kyrie on the other side, I think you can easily mix and match some other pieces from the game with the fastest projected pace.
In the last two games without Kyrie on the floor, it has been interesting to see how Greg Monroe ($10K) has responded as his 1.45 FP/M is leading the team as he has put up 33 and 35 fantasy points off the bench in back to back games. Al Horford ($12.9K) returned last game for Boston and stepped right back into his starting role, playing 31 minutes with a 29% usage rate and 1 FP/M and led the team with 18 FGA so I have no issue going right back to him here tonight. Marcus Morris ($12.1K) has been pushed into a major offensive role as well with the injuries to Boston, putting up 22 and 15 FGA in his last two games while putting up a FP/M of production. I think all three Celtics big men are in play here tonight and the only one I would look to fade is Jayson Tatum ($11K) as even with his expanded minutes, this is a player only putting up .6 FP/M in those games and frankly I am not sure I see the ceiling here tonight.
If there is one pivot play outside of this game, it would be Karl-Anthony Towns who destroyed this Rockets team for 66 and 64 fantasy points earlier this season and in fact had put up 58 or more fantasy points in his last 6 meetings before “only” reaching 40 fantasy points the last time he faced Houston. This is a spot I want to take a wait and see approach on tonight as I would expect the “KAT owns Houston” narrative to beat strong around the industry but as his last game showed, historical results are no guarantee of future performance and fading him to pay up elsewhere could give you a massive advantage over the field.
Best of luck in your FantasyDraft and FanDuel contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis!