Three players in the top 10 and nine total in the latest NBA mock draft are still in the NCAA Tournament. One and done indeed.
March Madness has not been kind to the projected top 10 2018 NBA Draft picks. To be fair, March Madness has not really been kind to the top 10 teams, being as the first weekend was a banner weekend for upsets, with losses for two No. 1 Seeds, two No. 2 seeds, two No. 3 seeds and two No. 4 seeds, including the first-ever 16-1 upset when UMBC beat Virginia.
Which is just to say, while top NBA prospects not making it deep in the tournament isn’t exactly unprecedented, the fact that half the shortlist of Final Four prospects didn’t make it out of the first weekend further diminishes the number of future NBA stars we’ll see over the next two weeks.
Of the top 10 players in our FanSided 2018 NBA Mock Draft, based on 538’s CARM-Elo projections and absenting an international No. 1 pick who does not play in the NCAA, four lost in the first round, two lost in the second round and of the three that are still alive, two play for Duke:
- DeAndre Ayton, Arizona: Lost in the first round to Buffalo
- Jaren Jackson, Jr. Michigan State: Lost in the second round to Syracuse
- Trae Young, Oklahoma: Lost in the first round to Rhode Island
- Marvin Bagley, Jr. Duke: Still alive!
- Mohamed Bamba, Texas: Lost in the first round to Nevada
- Michael Porter, Jr, Missouri: Lost in the first round to Kansas State
- Wendell Carter, Jr., Duke: Still alive!
- Mikal Bridges, Villanova: Still alive!
- Miles Bridges, Michigan State: Lost in the second round to Syracuse
- Troy Brown, Oregon: Did not make the tournament!
Keep going through the top 30: Lonnie Walker IV (Miami, lost in the first round), Collin Sexton (Alabama, lost in the second round), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Kentucky, still alive!), Daniel Gafford (Arkansas, lost in the first round), De’Anthony Melton (USC, n/a), Robert Williams III (Texas A&M, still alive!), Kevin Knox (Kentucky, still alive!), De’Andre Hunter (Virginia, lost in the first [!!!!] round), Jontay Porter (Missouri, lost in the first round), Chandler Hutchison (Boise State, n/a), Keita Bates-Diop (Ohio State, lost in the second round), Landry Shamet (Wichita State, lost in the first round), Killian Tillie (Gonzaga, still alive!), Jacob Evans (Cincinnati, lost in the second round), Khyri Thomas (Creighton, lost in the first round), Zhaire Smith (Texas Tech, still alive!) and Devonte’ Graham (Kansas, still alive!). That’s six more still in the tournament, meaning, a total of 9 in the top 30.
The rapid-fire draft prospect elimination led Bleacher Report to create a running thread through the first four days, in which they added the photo of every highly-touted player expected to declare for the draft.
See you in the NBA pic.twitter.com/59hIxfagQu
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) March 15, 2018
This is all perhaps just a personal problem for the NBA fans watching the tournament. Given the wild nature of their tournament exits, the NCAA likely isn’t too worried about a lack of names affecting ratings. (Also, it’s March Madness.) And most NBA scouts or analysts will tell you this won’t seriously affect any of these players’ futures. Michael Porter, Jr. is expected to go top 10 and he’s only played two games and two minutes all season. Exceptional tournament performances do more to raise the stock of lower-projected picks. If you’re top 10 going into March Madness, there’s not much that’s going to change that.
In any case, with the way Duke and Villanova have been playing, you wouldn’t expect Marvin Bagley, Jr., Wendell Carter, Jr. or Mikal Bridges to be knocked out of the tournament before a respectable Final Four finish. Still, if this year has taught us one (or two) things, it’s never say never and no top seed is safe.
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