Ottawa Senators’ uncertain future makes them NHL’s most interesting team

The Ottawa Senators’ future is a subject of uncertainty. It’s also what makes them the most fascinating team in hockey.

Almost a year ago, the Ottawa Senators embarked upon a remarkable playoff run. Initially perceived as something of a fluke, the Sens’ impressive performance against the Pittsburgh Penguins eventually became one of the many Cinderella stories of the 2016-17 season. Playoff stats even led us to believe — albeit temporarily — that some good might come from Bobby Ryan’s contract.

That said, the trials and tribulations of the 2017-18 season have rendered the Sens’ postseason success a subject of sensitivity among supporters of the organization. The not-so-distant memory of being just a goal away from the Stanley Cup Final only adds salt to the wound.

Despite straining the edges of becoming an afterthought, a winning future is not yet off the Sens’ radar. In fact, if the team plays its cards correctly, Stanley Cup contention is not entirely out of the question. Uncertainty surely places any organization in an unfavourable position, but the light at the end of Ottawa’s tunnel might be closer than we’re inclined to think.

As a forgettable season draws to a close, let’s consider some key factors that will inevitably shape the Sens’ future.

O captain, my… captain?

It’s no coincidence that Ottawa’s future is being called into question during the most confusing season of Erik Karlsson’s career. To an extent, this was to be expected. It’s not every day that a generational talent is sidelined as a result of surgery in which half of one of their ankle bones is removed.

But the ramifications of Karlsson’s regression have loomed large over the Senators’ season. Although he has quietly accumulated 54 points, Karlsson’s -26 rating and infamous pointless drought clouds the notion that his injury is merely a thing of the past. It also highlights the degree to which he misses a responsible defensive counterpoint. You’ve certainly left giant shoes to fill, Marc Methot.

Nevertheless, Karlsson’s value has not gone unrecognized. Drew Doughty’s comments show that the Sens’ captain is still regarded as perhaps the best defenseman in the NHL. That Karlsson has publicly expressed similar sentiments shows a heightened awareness of the situation.

For all the trade talk that has enveloped the past few months, one thing remains certain — Karlsson will be nothing short of an invaluable piece for any team that he plays for. If his recent comments are to be taken seriously, one of those teams could very well be the Sens.

Ottawa’s ownership has some tough questions to ponder in the months to follow. If a Karlsson-led future could inspire winning ways, then he ought to be paid what he’s worth. But if a full-fledged rebuild is in store, one can only hope that the Sens’ sense of direction is made clearer to its captain. He’s earned that much.

Goaltending

Craig Anderson was one of the most important pieces of Ottawa’s 2016-17 season. His incredible story even earned him the Bill Masterton Memorial Trophy.

While the 2017-18 season has not been kind to Anderson, a quick glance at his career stats suggests an interesting trend. The goaltender demonstrates intense ‘on-again, off-again’ tendencies — posting formidable numbers one season, and less than formidable stats in the year to follow. If history repeats itself, the Sens should be in luck come next fall.

The problem lies in the fact that Anderson turns 37 in May. If a starting job becomes too much of a problem for him, the torch then falls to Mike Condon, whose numbers are also unfavourable.

The good news? The Sens recently acquired Filip Gustavsson as part of a trade that sent Derick Brassard to the Penguins. As Craig Medaglia writes, Gustavsson “was recently named the top goaltender at the 2018 World Junior Championship in Buffalo where he helped Sweden to a silver medal finish.” Should Anderson falter, Gustavsson bears a promise of hope — the likes of which couldn’t have arrived sooner.

The Duchene Trade

Perhaps the Sens’ greatest mistake was their assumption of a “win-now” mentality from the outset of the season. Nothing exemplified this more than the acquisition of Matt Duchene. Part of a three-team deal, Duchene came at a very heavy cost, as obtaining the center resulted in the Sens losing Kyle Turris, Andrew Hammond, Shane Bowers, a first-round pick and a third-round pick .

Despite scoring just six points in his first 23 games as a Senator, Duchene has managed to turn things around. He now serves as one of Ottawa’s most productive players on a nightly basis. As such, he is one of the key figures that a question of a rebuild revolves around.

Whether Duchene was actually worth five pieces is a matter of debate. What’s crucial to consider, however, is the role that the Duchene trade has played in reshaping Ottawa’s vision. Its fallout has underscored the need to remove costly contracts and attain draft picks in the name of a brighter tomorrow.  And if the latter half of the season has been any indication, Duchene could be extremely valuable going forward.        

Administration

Much has been written about the role — or lack thereof — of accountable ownership in Ottawa. By extension, the majority of reports have been highly speculative in nature.

A few things remain apparent. Pierre Dorion will serve as general manager for at least three more seasons. Eugene Melnyk has vowed that winning ways are on the horizon (past comments notwithstanding). Guy Boucher’s future remains uncertain.

If we’re to place Dorion’s multi-year extension of Dorion in context with the substance of Melnyk’s letter, there appears, at the very least, to be some recognition of a need to restore a culture of winning in Ottawa. And while administrative words may not produce hope for fans of the organization, it’s beneficial to note that similar narratives were part of the recent past for a number of successful teams. Joe Sakic’s job was on the line just months ago, but he’s now seen as a magician. George McPhee looks like he’s mastered the art of 4D chess.

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There’s little doubt that the Sens’ future is an uncertain one. But with uncertainty comes a promise of underestimation, which is an intimidating word to associate with a team like Ottawa. Just ask Pittsburgh fans — miscalculation does not undermine the Senators.

It fuels them.