DraftKings NBA Picks March 21: Can we trust LeBron against Toronto?

DETROIT, MI – FEBRUARY 12: Blake Griffin #23 of the Detroit Pistons tries to make a move around Nikola Mirotic #3 of the New Orleans Pelicans during the first half at Little Caesars Arena on February 12, 2018 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Picks March 21: Can we trust LeBron against Toronto?

We are back to a 7pm eastern lineup lock on DraftKings tonight and eight games in total. There are plenty of stars out tonight, and several bad teams in action which could generate some value plays. Who should we build around? Let’s check out the slate!

Point Guards:

Best Bets:

Kyle Lowry ($7,800): I don’t trust Kemba at that high of a price. Lowry is $900 cheaper, and has a much better matchup against Cleveland. There are all sorts of players to waste your money on in the upper tier here today. You shouldn’t have to in order to finish in the money.

Goran Dragic ($7,300): Dragic has three straight games of either 39 or 40 DraftKings points. You don’t get any more consistent than that! The Knicks are still a revolving door at the point, but all of them are decent defenders. I don’t think decent stops Dragic tonight. You could make a case for using him over anyone except maybe Lowry.

Honorable Mention:

Jamal Murray ($7,100): There really isn’t any reason to worry about matchups with Murray anymore. Not if he can put up 38.25 DraftKings points on the Heat. Murray also held his own against Memphis in the game before that. Both of those teams are in the top six in the league in point guard defense. The Bulls have allowed the most fantasy points to point guards this season, so roster Murray, grab a beer, and watch the show!

Dejounte Murray ($6,000): Murray is still a little on the inconsistent side due to all of the veterans backing him up. This is a solid matchup against a Washington team that is still without John Wall. Murray’s upside is capped, but he has been known to put up some pretty good games.

Rajon Rondo ($5,700): Rondo hit value against Dallas and Boston, so I’m not too worried about him against the Pacers. It seems like there is always risk with Rondo, especially with Ian Clark playing well behind him, but as long as he keeps being an elite distributor, the Pelicans have to play him. They are fighting for a playoff spot.

Dark Horses:

Darren Collison ($5,500): Collison finally returned to the starting lineup. He responded with 37 DraftKings points in 33 minutes against the Lakers. Collison is the benefactor of another delicious matchup tonight against the Pelicans. Now that Collison is back in the starting lineup, he is worth a look when the matchup is right. It is tonight!

Cameron Payne ($5,300): Payne has been a solid contributor with Kris Dunn out. It is harder for him to find value at this price, but this is a great matchup against Denver. There is good upside here for Payne with Dunn and LaVine still out. The minutes are there.

My pick: Dragic(PG), Payne(G); Collison(PG), J. Murray(SG)

NEW YORK, NY – FEBRUARY 10: Jrue Holiday #11 of the New Orleans Pelicans works against Allen Crabbe #33 of the Brooklyn Nets in the first round of overtime during their game at Barclays Center on February 10, 2018 in the Brooklyn borough of New York City. (Photo by Abbie Parr/Getty Images) /

Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

DeMar DeRozan ($8,000): Oladipo has not hit value in over two weeks. So I would rather roll with DeRozan who has a great matchup against the Cavs. He struggled against Cleveland in the first game this year, but the Cavs defense off the ball has been bad all year long. There is solid potential for DeRozan here tonight. Make sure to keep an eye on the status of DeRozan. He was rested last night.

Jrue Holiday ($7,900): Holiday was rested for a really good matchup against Dallas last night. I have a feeling that New Orleans will rest someone tonight as well, so that would give Holiday an even larger role in the offense. I’m not sure that they can hold Brow out for a whole game with every game being so important, but they may hold out Rondo. Rondo was huge with Holiday out last night. The same would stand for Holiday if Rondo rests.

Honorable Mention:

Khris Middleton ($7,700): Middleton is one of the most consistent players around. He has been between 33 and 47 DraftKings points in all but two games this month. Tonight is another good matchup with a Clippers team that has struggled against the off guard all season. As Sunday showed, it is possible for both Middleton and Giannis to have good games. You don’t need to worry about Giannis taking away his value.

D’Angelo Russell ($6,900): The minutes limits seem to be off, and Russell is playing at a high level. Charlotte is not an easy matchup, but it is a whole lot easier with Batum listed as doubtful for tonight. Without a good defender guarding him, Russell could be in for another big game here.

Austin Rivers ($5,800): Rivers is playing big minutes every game, and the production has come with it. Rivers has only been under 25 DraftKings points once in the last ten games. You know what you are getting with Rivers, even if the upside is not that of others in this price range.

Dark Horses:

Jeremy Lamb ($5,400): Lamb will get another start with Batum out. He went for 31.5 DraftKings points against the Sizers on Monday. This should be an easier matchup yet against the Nets. Expect another night of 6x value or better from Lamb tonight.

Josh Richardson ($5,300): Richardson played 41 minutes against Denver on Monday, so his foot problems should be a thing of the past. Richardson is capable of putting up big numbers, and Monday is hopefully a sign that his slump is over. A matchup against the Knicks provides good upside for Richardson tonight at a reasonable price.

Kyle Korver ($4,100): Korver has nailed at least three triples in each of his last four games. This outside shooting has helped spur the Cavs, along with great play from LeBron. As long as Korver is shooting like this, he is going to continue to get minutes and shots. This is something that Cleveland has missed for most of the year, a consistent outside threat.

My pick: Lamb(SG); N/A

PHILADELPHIA, PA -JANUARY 20: Ben Simmons #25 of the Philadelphia 76ers dunks the ball in the first half against the Milwaukee Bucks in the first half at Wells Fargo Center on January 20, 2018 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images) /

Small Forwards:

Best Bets:

LeBron James ($11,700): Toronto has allowed the second fewest fantasy points to small forwards this season, so if you are inclined to fade LeBron, I understand. Even the King himself only mustered 36.25 DraftKings points against the Raptors in the first meeting. However, LeBron is in the middle of a dominant stretch. He has four consecutive games with more than 70 DraftKings points. He has not been under 50 DraftKings points in a game since before the All Star Break. The numbers say to fade LeBron, but it’s hard to fade someone playing this well.

Ben Simmons ($9,000): Memphis is also a team that is tough on small forwards, but Simmons usually plays the point. That wont help him if Evans is back. However, Simmons has over 50 DraftKings points in each of the last two games, and was over 45 in the two before that. He is also playing well right now, but the stats say fade. Of course, Memphis is mostly tanking right now, so take that for what you will.

Honorable Mention:

Will Barton ($7,000): Barton has come up big with Gary Harris out. Harris is still ailing, so Barton will get a start against the horri-Bulls. The Bulls have been a fantasy haven for just about everyone that has taken the court against them. Barton could be in for a huge night tonight.

Tim Hardaway Jr. ($6,200): Hardaway struggled against Miami earlier this season, but he is about the only sure thing on offense for the Knicks right now. The volume of shots alone make Hardaway worth taking a chance on, even against this defense. You can do worse for this price.

DeMarre Carroll ($5,900): Carroll continues to put up big numbers for a Nets team that isn’t really going anywhere. He has at least 30 DraftKings points in all but two games over the last 12. One of those was against Toronto, who stymies small forwards. This is a solid matchup against the Hornets here. Carroll is a solid value play.

Dark Horses:

Robert Covington ($5,700): This is not a great matchup with Memphis, but the Grizzlies are playing a lot of youngsters, so there is still some value to be had here. Covington isn’t the huge part of this team that he used to be, but that is more a reflection of how the team as a whole has improved. Covington still has at least 30 DraftKings points in seven of the last ten games. In the first game against Memphis, he topped that total as well. Another 30+ looks likely tonight.

Wilson Chandler ($5,600): Games against Memphis and Philly proved that Chandler is not matchup-proof. However, Chandler is still a strong play when the matchup is right. The matchup is always right against the Bulls.

Caris LeVert ($5,500): LeVert had a huge game against the Hornets in his first game against them. LeVert racked up 40.5 DraftKings points in just 29 minutes! The Nets are still giving LeVert anywhere from 25-30 minutes per game, so he remains a good value play.

My pick: Covington(SF), LeVert(UTIL); Barton(SF), LeVert(G)

CLEVELAND, OH – MARCH 19: Giannis Antetokounmpo #34 of the Milwaukee Bucks dunks over LeBron James #23 of the Cleveland Cavaliers during the second half at Quicken Loans Arena on March 19, 2018 in Cleveland, Ohio. The Cavaliers defeated the Bucks 124-117. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images) /

Power Forwards:

Best Bets:

Anthony Davis ($11,500): Davis had to leave the game for a spell last night due to a leg injury, but he came back out and dominated the second half. Davis hasn’t had a really huge game lately, and that likely wont change during this brutal three games in three days stretch. All five of the stretch of five games in seven days are at home, but this is still rough for the Pelicans. They need every win they can get, but can Davis survive this stretch? Keep an eye out for sitting Pelicans. Yes, even Davis.

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,100): Giannis has three straight games of more than 60 DraftKings points. Harris wont be able to handle Giannis, especially on the second night of a back to back. I’m a big fan of Davis, but I would fade him for Giannis tonight due to the Pelicans’ rough stretch and the advantage Giannis should have on Harris.

Honorable Mention:

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson ($6,800): The Nets have a rotation that allows about eight players to play about 30 minutes per game. It’s working for them. It is also keeping all of the Nets affordable. RHJ racked up 45.5 DraftKings points on Charlotte in the first meeting. He has also been back on track lately, averaging 39 DraftKings points per game over the last week. Hollis-Jefferson has another strong matchup tonight.

Bobby Portis ($6,700): Portis has at least 5x value in five straight games. The Bulls are playing better without the struggling and spasming Lauri Markkanen. Markkanen may return tonight, in which case I would fade the entire Bulls frontcourt. If Markkanen is out again, Portis is at least worth a look.

James Johnson ($6,200): Sorry, but I don’t trust Love against Toronto. Johnson was nearly unstoppable against Denver on Monday night. I don’t expect him to dominate like he did late in that game against the Knicks, but this is not the Knicks team that Johnson struggled against earlier this year. Porzingis is nowhere to be found. There is still good value for Johnson here tonight.

Dark Horses:

Nikola Mirotic ($5,600): Mirotic continues to struggle in New Orleans, but I think that the Pelicans are going to have to lean on Mirotic more than usual over the next couple of days. That could make him a sneaky value pick. Just keep in mind that he may continue to underachieve.

Cristiano Felicio ($3,800): Felicio is producing as much or more than Vonleh at a lower price. Felicio’s ability to play center as well should keep him in the rotation even when Markkanen returns. That will likely come at the expense of Vonleh. If you are bargain hunting in the Bulls frontcourt, Felicio is the guy to have, even over Portis.

Pascal Siakam ($3,700): Siakam produces when given minutes. He put up over 30 DraftKings points in the first meeting with Cleveland. The Raptors have given Siakam about 20 minutes per game lately, so there is some value here, but the upside is severely capped.

My pick: Hollis-Jefferson(PF); Antetokounmpo(PF), Felicio(F)

CHARLOTTE, NC – MARCH 06: Joel Embiid #21 of the Philadelphia 76ers reacts after a play against the Charlotte Hornets during their game at Spectrum Center on March 6, 2018 in Charlotte, North Carolina. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images) /

Center:

Best Bets:

Joel Embiid ($9,700): On paper, Memphis is still a tough defensive team. However, what the Grizzlies have been rolling out there lately barely resembles a team. Embiid was shut down by the Grizzlies the first time around. Now, Embiid has over 50 DraftKings points in each of the last four games, and the Grizzlies are actively trying to lose. Embiid has solid potential tonight.

Nikola Jokic ($9,600): The Bulls have no one that can stop Jokic. The only thing that will is a blowout. Jokic is in a dominant stretch right now, and the Nuggets desperately need wins. Just keep in mind that Jokic may not play more than 30 minutes when this becomes a blowout. Let’s face it, the Bulls don’t want to win.

Honorable Mention:

Dwight Howard ($8,400): Howard looked uninterested against the Sixers on Monday. He has a dream matchup against a horrid Nets front tonight, but if he doesn’t care, is he really worth using? The numbers say Howard is in for a huge night. Will Howard himself show up for it?

DeAndre Jordan ($7,600): Jordan continues to put up big numbers with Blake in Detroit. He has not upped his production much with the recent struggles of Harris, but Jordan was producing nearly 6x value per game anyway. That is about his ceiling. He should hit that ceiling against the small Bucks interior again tonight.

Jonas Valanciunas ($6,600): Valanciunas put up 39 DraftKings points in just 18 minutes in the first meeting with Cleveland. The Cavs are still without Tristan Thompson and will still have Love on a minutes limited. There is still good potential for Jonas tonight.

Dark Horses:

Kelly Olynyk ($6,300): Olynyk was equally unstoppable against Denver on Monday. He and Johnson are in line for huge nights against the Knicks tonight. I would say Johnson more so than Olynyk, but there is still good potential here. Bam will mostly have to deal with Kanter as the starter, leaving Olynyk to terrorize a bench that isn’t that good to begin with.

Emeka Okafor ($3,600): Okafor was a non-factor against Dallas last night, but they are going to need his size against Turner and the Pacers tonight. Okafor has not made a habit of hitting value lately, but if you absolutely need the money, you can do worse.

Willy Hernangomez ($3,400): With Cody Zeller out and Dwight Howard checked out, there is a chance that Hernangomez gets run off the bench again. Willy has 47.75 DraftKings points in just 33 minutes over the last two games. If he gets run against the Nets, Hernangomez could have a monster night.

My pick: Jordan(C), Olynyk(F); Valanciunas(C), Hernangomez(UTIL)

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