2018 NCAA Tournament: Sweet 16 Predictions
It was a rough first weekend for just about everyone. We saw the greatest upset in college basketball history. We saw two one seeds and two two seeds go down. For the first time ever, we had a region that failed to advance any of the top four seeds into the regional semifinals. So, uh, how’s your bracket?
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It it’s like mine, I was ready to toss it in after UMBC beat Virginia. Common sense prevailed, and I figured that hey, I still have three other teams left and some upsets picked. Then Michigan State lost. Then North Carolina. Turns out I was drawing dead by Friday evening, I just didn’t want to admit it.
Fortunately, the round by round game is still alive, and we have a mostly clean slate! And the best part: each correct pick earns a donation to Coaches vs. Cancer. So keep playing the round by round!
I only have 33 correct picks out of 52 games. Ouch! There are 15 games left though. Some good picking could still make this respectable. Let’s check out the regional semifinal picks!
(1)Villanova vs. (5)West Virginia:
Well, this bracket is still intact for me. It’s the only one. I have no teams left in the south, one in the west, and two in the midwest. Did I mention drawing dead? At any rate, this is a tough matchup for Villanova. Press Virginia frustrated Marshall. However, it was nothing compared with what Villanova did to Alabama in the second half. Alabama is a good team. Nova made them look really, really bad.
That is going to be harder for the Wildcats to do here. West Virginia thrives on creating chaos, but this year, they can score enough to keep them in games too. Looking at this region initially, I saw this as the toughest test for Villanova. However, I think the Wildcats’ experience carries them through, but it’s going to be close.
Pick: Villanova
(2)Purdue vs. (3)Texas Tech:
Honestly, I’m surprised that Purdue made it through without Isaac Haas, but Haarms has played very well in his stead. Texas Tech is going to struggle with the size of Haarms and the rest of Purdue. Still, Tech has some really good scorers on this team. They finally are fully healthy once again. When they were healthy earlier this year, they beat Kansas in Allen Fieldhouse, and were a trendy pick to end the Kansas reign of terror in the Big 12. A tournament run will have to be enough for a consolation prize.
Pick: Texas Tech
(4)Gonzaga vs. (9)Florida State:
Honestly, I think Gonzaga is happier to see the Noles than the Xavier team that beat them earlier in the season. That was an incredible comeback by Florida State, but was only the second best of the weekend. Meanwhile, Gonzaga blew a 15-0 run to open the game and nearly lost to Ohio State.
Gonzaga’s shooters are going to be a problem for Florida State. Xavier shot just 38% from three, and 63% from the foul line. Perhaps Florida State’s best achievement was taking Trevon Bluiett out of the game. Can the defense do it against the size of Gonzaga? I have my doubts
Pick: Gonzaga
(3)Michigan vs. (7)Texas A&M:
Michigan survived a battle against Houston in a game they really should have lost. The clutch shooting of Wagner and the buzzer beater by Poole put Michigan in the regional semis. Michigan is one of the hottest teams remaining, having won 11 straight games.
Texas A&M showed why they were a top five team before injuries and suspension. They demolished a good North Carolina team. It was never even close! The size of A&M in the middle is going to be an issue for Michigan, as is their free throw shooting. If the Wolverines start slow like they did in each of the first two games, they are toast.
Pick: Texas A&M
(5)Kentucky vs. (9)Kansas State:
All of the whining by John Calipari about his draw, and none of the teams he complained about are left. Personally, I thought it was a classless move by an arrogant coach, but that really isn’t anything new, is it? Kentucky made short work of a Buffalo team that couldn’t penetrate like they did against Arizona.
Kansas State prefers a street brawl to a basketball game. They have allowed just 102 points in two tournament games so far. Kansas State loves to play ugly. Kentucky is like a beauty queen. Kansas State is the football player that takes said beauty queen camping. Kentucky struggles when games get ugly. They do have the size to keep Kansas State from pushing them around, but I still think K-State is going to frustrate the hell out of Kentucky. That’s when mistakes happen.
Pick: Kansas State
(7)Nevada vs. (11)Loyola-Chicago:
Nevada pulled off the largest tournament comeback since BYU came back from 23 down at halftime to beat Iona in 2012. Nevada did it in about half the time. The Wolfpack came into the tournament with one of the best defenses in the country. However, they allowed 83 points to Texas and 73 to Cincinnati. That defense is what brought them back from 22 down with just over ten minutes remaining.
Okay, so even Sister Jean has the Ramblers losing this round. Blasphemy! I think if given the chance, the 98 year old would have a change of heart when seeing the opponent. Loyola has played tough defense, even against an explosive Tennessee team. This is going to be another tough game here, where defense rules the roost. As crazy as it sounds, Nevada should want to speed this game up. Loyola has advanced on two buzzer beaters. Can they make it three?
Pick: Loyola-Chicago
(1)Kansas vs. (5)Clemson:
Kansas has advanced with Devonte Graham yet to get going. Now that they have Azubuike back – a guy who had the second best shooting percentage in NCAA history this year – Kansas is going to be really tough to beat.
Clemson just came out and destroyed Auburn. That was a dominant performance by a Clemson team that is really playing well right now. They are going to need that defense against Kansas. I’m not sure that Clemson can close out on the Kansas shooters enough. If they can keep Graham mostly silent, Clemson has a chance. If not, look out San Antonio! The Jayhawks are coming!
Pick: Kansas
(2)Duke vs. (11)Syracuse:
Duke punished an undersized Rhode Island team. Just as everyone though. The Rams had no answer for Bagley, or anyone for that matter. Syracuse is just another in a long line of first four teams that makes a Sweet 16 run or better. The crowd wont get behind the Orange. For whatever reason, there are a lot of Duke fans around here.
Syracuse is a lot like Kansas State. They ugly up games. They mug you. They do things that frustrate you into mistakes. Syracuse has only allowed 161 points in three tournament games. Duke has scored 176 in just two games. Something has to give.
This was an ugly game in ACC play. Duke held Syracuse to just 44 points in Durham. More importantly, it proved that Duke can survive playing Syracuse’s style of play. What changes here? Well, the game isn’t at Cameron Indoor, and Syracuse is 7-1 as a double digit seed in the NCAA Tournament, the best record all time.
Pick: Syracuse
With all of these crazy seedings (the Sweet Sixteen has a cumulative total of 85, the most since 2000), we should expect some crazy games in the second weekend. This is usually where good teams separate themselves. However, with teams like Nevada, Kansas State, and Syracuse still alive, expect some ugly but entertaining basketball!