DraftKings NBA Picks March 22: What will Dwight do for an encore?
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings NBA Picks March 22: What will Dwight do for an encore?
There are only six games tonight, and yes, the Pelicans are playing again. This ends a brutal stretch, and NBA record stretch, of five games in six days, including three straight. Who says that rainouts only affect baseball?
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The money line was down to 269 DraftKings points. One lineup was ruined by the cute play of Jordan Clarkson against the dinosaurs. The other was torpedoed by Giannis leaving with an injury.
The winning lineup was down a ways to 346.5. He built around LeBron and Jordan with great value from Millsap, Kevin Love, Austin Rivers, and Devin Harris.
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Point Guards:
Best Bets:
Ben Simmons ($9,100): Strange things happen when teams have something to play for, and conversely, nothing to play for. Simmons shouldn’t have hit value against Memphis last night, but with a top three pick firmly in sight for the Grizz, they have broken out the “ole” defense mostly used for All Star games. Simmons hit value, the Sixers won, and all is right in the world. Now Simmons gets to take on an Orlando team that has been awful defending the point all year. Another 50+ DraftKings point game looks likely.
Chris Paul ($8,100): Paul insists that his hamstring is fine. If he’s right, this is a good matchup for Paul. The Pistons are going the wrong way since acquiring Griffin, in no small part because he can’t play point. Point guard has been a sore spot for Detroit all year, even when Reggie Jackson was healthy. If Paul is a go with no restrictions, his fourth straight game of 5x value or better looks imminent.
Honorable Mention:
Lonzo Ball ($7,600): So Ball struggled against the Pacers. They have a top five defense against the point. Ball isn’t the first to struggle, nor will he be the last. Reprieve comes tonight with the Lakers playing the Pelicans, who are playing a NBA record five games in six days, and three straight. That’s right…..it’s never happened before. They are worn out, and New Orleans doesn’t defend the point well anyway. Ball should get back on track here.
Ricky Rubio ($7,100): Rubio has three straight games of 5x value, and Dallas is still a bit beat up at guard. Rubio seems to have shunned defense (did you see what Schroder did to him on Tuesday???) in favor of a better rounded offensive game. That’s great for us DFS people, but Utah may not be too happy about it. At any rate, Rubio looks like a solid play tonight.
Dennis Schroder ($6,500): Schroder poured in a career high 41 points (58.25 DraftKings points) against Utah on Tuesday. A matchup against the George Hill-less Kings is another great opportunity for Schroder. I doubt that he has a repeat of Tuesday, but 6x value is within reach.
Dark Horses:
Rajon Rondo ($6,300): It’s hard to play any Pelican with the gauntlet they have just run through, but this is an elite matchup for Rondo against the Lakers. Just be aware that the Pelicans may rest some people tonight. It’s hard because New Orleans needs every win they can. What will likely happen is that the Pelicans will try to limit minutes without actually sitting anyone. Guys like Clark and Moore could end up being more valuable than the starters because they should play solid minutes at a discount price. Rondo is still worth a look at this price against the Lakers though.
J.J. Barea ($5,500): As we saw on Tuesday, Yogi is not a sure thing even when starting for Smith. Barea has at least 5x value in nine of the last ten games. He is the Dallas value guard you want to use tonight if you have a feeling that Rubio could get lit up again. Even after Tuesday’s nightmare against Schroder, the Jazz are still in the top eight in fantasy points allowed to point guards.
Shelvin Mack ($4,200): Both Mack and Augustin have picked it up with Evan Fournier out. Both are solid values here, but I like Mack’s price tag and consistency a little more. Augustin has more upside, but he is also more likely to come up empty. Mack has established himself as a solid scorer on the second unit, so the value will continue to be there.
My pick: Simmons(PG), Barea(G), Mack(UTIL); Ball(PG), Rondo(G), Mack(UTIL)
Shooting Guards:
Best Bets:
Jrue Holiday ($7,800): Holiday did get a night off during this rough stretch, so he should be a little more fresh than his teammates. There is a good chance that Holiday carries the bulk of the load in this game. I view him as more of a must play against the weak Laker guards than Brow against Brolo and Randle. Many will be on James Harden, but the fact remains that Detroit is not that good of a matchup for him. Holiday could get close to his point total tonight for thousands less.
Donovan Mitchell ($7,500): Mitchell still takes by far the most shots on the team. That alone makes him an intriguing GPP play any night. As I mentioned earlier, Dallas is a bit short on guards here, so Mitchell should see plenty of good looks. Mitchell has not been under 30 DraftKings points in a game in over a month. How’s that for a nice floor?
Honorable Mention:
Buddy Hield ($6,600): Hield has put up some big totals since his Futures Game MVP performance. Now there is some consistency to go with it. Hield has not been below 37 DraftKings points in any of the last four games. In fact, his lowest total was against Detroit on Monday, a game in which Bogdanovic was out. The Kings have no reason to hold Hield back, so he should continue his string of strong games. He will inevitably go cold again. That’s the risk you run with Hield.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($6,200): KCP’s consistency makes him a better cash game play, but there is serious upside here against the Pelicans. New Orleans has allowed the most fantasy points in the league to shooting guards, and this was before playing their fifth game in six days. There is plenty of upside to consider KCP in GPP’s tonight.
Dark Horses:
Jeremy Lamb ($5,700): Lamb continues to put up strong numbers with Nicolas Batum out. We have a bit of a measuring stick here though. Lamb faced the Grizzlies earlier this year in a game which Batum missed. He picked up 29 DraftKings points in 28 minutes in that one. Look for a similar performance tonight.
E’Twaun Moore ($4,300): Let’s face it, the Pelicans can run Moore into the ground if they want to. He is important, but not vital, to their run at the postseason. New Orleans has limited Moore’s minutes some in this stretch. He usually plays about 40 minutes per game. Moore has not played more than 35 in the current stretch of games. You would think that would limit Moore’s value, but it hasn’t. Moore has at least 5x value in every game of this current death run.
Ian Clark ($3,800): Clark has at least 6x value in every game during this stretch of five game in six days. He usually doesn’t get as much of a run off the bench, but this bit of necessity could turn into a new thing down the stretch as the Pelicans make a run for the playoffs. Clark and Moore are playing very well filling in for Solomon Hill, or the current flavor of the week at SF. They are both great value picks against the Lakers tonight.
My pick: KCP(SG), Lamb(SF); Hield(SG)
Small Forwards:
Best Bets:
Taurean Prince ($7,200): Prince lit up the Kings earlier this season for 41.75 DraftKings points. That was before his current impressive run with Kent Bazemore out. Utah is the only team out of the last five that has been able to hold Prince under 45 DraftKings points. Look for this impressive run to continue against the Kings, who also have nothing to play for.
Joe Ingles ($6,400): Ingles has put up 61.75 DraftKings points in 66 minutes against Dallas this year. Ingles has not been under 30 DraftKings points in any of the last eight games. Of course, Ingles doesn’t have much for upside. He has only broken out of the friendly confines of the 30’s once in that span as well. However, this is a pretty weak position tonight, and Ingles usually hits value.
Honorable Mention:
Kyle Kuzma ($6,300): The Pelicans are solid defenders of the three, but not much else. This is not a great matchup for Kuzma, but he has performed well with Brandon Ingram out. Kuzma has not had below 25 DraftKings points in a game this month. There is potential here since the Pelicans are in the midst of this brutal stretch, and were involved in a very physical game with Indiana last night.
JaMychal Green ($5,800): The Grizzlies are giving younger guys run, and why not? They are playing for a pick at this point anyway. Green isn’t the most consistent guy around, but Charlotte isn’t a great defensive team against either forward position. There is solid potential for Green here tonight.
Robert Covington ($5,600): Covington didn’t hit 30 last night, but he still got near 5x value. Rest assured that if the game would have stayed closer, Covington would have been more productive. We could run into the same kind of situation against the Magic tonight. Covington is not a bad play, but he isn’t a lock for 30 tonight either.
Dark Horses:
Dillon Brooks ($4,600): There is very little upside here, but the Grizzlies are giving Brooks a lot of minutes at the two and the three lately. He can’t help but hit 5x value just because he plays over 30 minutes per game. However, until he does more than score, Brooks lacks that upside that GPP players covet.
Justin Jackson ($3,700): You have to be prepared to take a very low score if you choose to roll the dice with Jackson. He throws in a few of those here and there just to make sure he is a sizeable risk. There is little upside with Jackson, but he only needs 18.5 DraftKings points for 5x value, and he is playing one of the worst defensive teams in the league in Atlanta. There is solid value potential here.
My pick: N/A; Prince(SF)
Power Forwards:
Best Bets:
Anthony Davis ($11,700): How does he do it? Davis has managed to stay close to value despite this brutal run. Tonight, Davis gets the easiest game of the five, but how much does he have left? Davis has racked up 142.5 DraftKings points in just two games against the Lakers this year. It’s hard to ignore that kind of production, but I imagine that Davis falls far short of 70 tonight. I see him somewhere around 50, assuming that the Pelicans let him play at all at this point. That game against Indiana was a brawl last night.
Julius Randle ($8,000): We have seen Randle’s ceiling, and it’s somewhere near 50. Playing a dog tired Pelicans team that doesn’t defend all that well anyway, there is serious potential for Randle here. The Lakers have managed the delicate balance of playing well enough to look respectable and still lose. Not that they care. The pick isn’t theirs anyway. They are trying more than most teams who have nothing to play for. At least Philadelphia hopes they are. The Sixers only keep the pick if it falls out of the top five.
Honorable Mention:
Aaron Gordon ($7,300): Gordon was finally starting to heat up when a hip injury derailed his season. It has flared up a couple of times, resulting in Gordon missing more games. The result has been a whole mess of inconsistent games from Gordon once again. The talent is there. He put up 80 DraftKings points in two games against Philly earlier this season. It’s hard to rely on someone this inconsistent though. That said, the upside is there for GPP play.
Dewayne Dedmon ($5,600): With Ilyasova shipped out of town and John Collins still out, minutes have finally opened back up for Dedmon in the Atlanta frontcourt. With Muscala manning the post, Dedmon has played the four with good success. He has 76.25 DraftKings points over the last two games. Dedmon destroyed the Kings for 55 DraftKings points in just 23 minutes in the first meeting. There is enormous potential here.
Nikola Mirotic ($5,500): Mirotic put up 35.75 DraftKings points against the Lakers earlier this season. I see potential here because I have this feeling that the Pelicans are going to rest Davis if they can. They wont put themselves in jeopardy of losing the game, but I see them taking out Davis when they would normally leave him in, especially early in the game. That should result in more minutes for Mirotic. Of course, nothing has come out as far as “news” about this. It’s just a gut feeling.
Dark Horses:
Skal Labissiere ($5,000): It’s hard to rely on Skal for anything this year because of his inconsistent play and inconsistent minutes. Zach Randolph is battling a stomach bug, so there is a good chance that Skal gets a larger run than normal tonight against an Atlanta team that doesn’t defend well. There is potential here, but it takes a huge leap of faith to rely on someone like Labissiere.
Cheick Diallo ($3,800): Diallo has three straight games with more than 25 DraftKings points. Look for him to take some of the load off of Davis as well. He has also been outplaying Okafor, so there is no reason for his minutes to decrease against the Lakers. I love Diallo as a value pick at this price. Just keep in mind that everyone else does too.
My pick: Dedmon(PF), Diallo(F); Randle(PF), Dedmon(F)
Center:
Best Bets:
Joel Embiid ($9,900): Gasol did a solid job on Embiid again, but Embiid has a much easier go of it tonight against Orlando. The days of Embiid being limited in back to backs should be over. The Sixers will rest him if this game gets out of hand, but considering Embiid played just 20 minutes last night in the easy win, it should be all systems go tonight.
Rudy Gobert ($8,300): Dallas is not a good interior team. Gobert has 84.5 DraftKings points in two games against Dallas this year. That would put him right at 5x value. If you can’t afford Embiid, Gobert is a solid pivot play. I don’t know that he has exceptional upside considering this game could get out of hand.
Honorable Mention:
Dwight Howard ($7,700): Howard had a monster double-double last night with a career high 30 rebounds. 30! He also had 32 points! Charlotte is not quite eliminated yet, and they have three very winnable games coming up as well. Gasol still allowed 30 DraftKings points to Embiid in just 20 minutes. And the Grizzlies may elect to rest Gasol again. Who knows. The uncertainty of Memphis takes some of the luster off, but Howard has to be considered a strong play after last night. This was the first 30 rebound night in almost eight years. The last one to do it was Kevin Love in 2010. ** Note: Howard has a pending one game suspension due to his 16th technical so it is possible he is forced to sit out this game – keep an eye on the news!
Willie Cauley-Stein ($5,800): WCS has solid upside against Atlanta. He has also not been under 23 DraftKings points in a game since the All Star Break. I prefer the consistency of Cauley-Stein in cash games, but there is good upside against the Hawks tonight.
Dark Horses:
Mike Muscala ($4,400): Muscala has been a solid value play with Collins out. Dedmon has more upside, but Muscala has still hit at least 5x value in five straight games. It will be harder for Muscala to hit value at this price, and his upside is capped with Dedmon around. That said, Muscala is playing almost 30 minutes per game with Collins out. He is a strong value pick.
Deyonta Davis ($3,300): I don’t really like rolling the dice with Noel against Utah, so I will roll with Davis against Charlotte if I really need the money. Davis played good minutes in the blowout last night. There is a strong chance that he does again tonight.
My pick: Embiid(C); Muscala(C)
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