Here’s how every MLB team will finish in 2018
Opening Day of the MLB regular season is next week, but it’s not too late to get your bets in on over-under win totals. We have all the picks here.
One of the most satisfying experiences for a true MLB fan is making a bet on your team to blow past the over-under for wins set by the oddsmakers in Vegas. It’s a bet on your team because you believe in them, no matter how irrational that may be. Unfortunately, betting the over doesn’t always work out, especially for tanking teams like the Detroit Tigers or Chicago White Sox.
The Vegas insiders are good at what they do, and the lines are always set so as to draw roughly an equal number of bettors on either side. You won’t typically see a line set below 70 or above 100 even though there are typically a few teams each year to win 100 games and a few to lose over 95. A line of 100 in either direction won’t draw much action.
It is difficult to find much value in these lines because the oddsmakers aren’t stupid, but a few of the lines still available as of Wednesday night are still very attractive. We’ll do our best to give you the pick for each team and call out which picks are the saftest bets. Current projections from the smart folks at Baseball Prospectus and FanGraphs are included.
Arizona Diamondbacks: 85.5 wins
- Baseball Prospectus: 87 wins
- FanGraphs: 80 wins
The Diamondbacks returned to the playoffs for the first time since 2011 by winning 93 games and claiming the top NL Wild Card. They defeated the Colorado Rockies in the one-off game but were swept in the NLDS by the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Arizona returns much of the same team that made a surprising playoff run last year, but will miss the dangerous bat of J.D. Martinez in the middle of the lineup. The entire starting rotation is back, but questions surround Zack Greinke, whose velocity continues to drop in Spring Training.
With the line set at 85.5 wins, the Diamondbacks don’t have much room for error. One big injury to Greinke, Robbie Ray or Zack Godley could sink the team. The NL West will also be much more competitive in 2018 — perhaps the toughest division in baseball — with the San Francisco Giants making a series of aggressive moves this winter to dig out of last place.
Conclusion: Bet the over. The Diamondbacks have one of the deepest lineups in the league even without Martinez. Greinke’s demise has been greatly exaggerated, and the rest of the rotation is on the rise. Arizona gets another MVP season out of Paul Goldschmidt, keeps A.J. Pollock healthy for a full year and wins over 90 games again.