Miami Marlins: 64.5 wins
- Baseball Prospectus: 65 wins
- FanGraphs: 64 wins
The Marlins have already traded Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna as Derek Jeter and the new ownership group look to strip the roster down and start over. We can debate the merits of this type of gutting of a franchise, but it is what it is at this point. The Marlins are going to play some ugly baseball while Jeter and Co. work to rebuild the farm system from scratch.
The projection systems rarely predict teams to lose over 100 games, but the Marlins are headed for one of the worst seasons in MLB history. This season will blow the ugliness of the 1998 season out of the water.
Excitement may be provided by Lewis Brinson in center field. He is a five-tool prospect who could go 30-30 if he puts everything together. Brinson struggled while making his MLB debut last year with the Milwaukee Brewers. The Marlins can afford to let him figure it out on his own schedule this year and should not consider sending him down to the minor leagues. Brian Anderson is another prospect to watch at third base. Right-hander Jose Urena won 14 games last year, but benefited from a very low batting average on balls in play.
Conclusion: The Marlins are a 100-loss team. Bet the under and wait to see a few more trade chips dealt away by the end of July.