Minnesota Twins: 82.5 wins
- Baseball Prospectus: 82 wins
- FanGraphs: 81 wins
A year after losing 103 games and having the worst record in the big leagues, the Twins were the surprise darlings of the American League in 2017. They returned to the playoffs for the first time since 2010 as the second Wild Card and actually gave the New York Yankees all they could handle before bowing out.
The Twins will no longer be a surprise team in 2018 and should be viewed as a very legitimate contender. Minnesota’s front office had an outstanding offseason, highlighted by a trade for Jake Odorizzi and low-cost signings of Lance Lynn and Logan Morrison. The Twins also signed Fernando Rodney, Addison Reed and Zach Duke to bolster their bullpen.
Minnesota quietly had one of the best offenses in the American League last year, finishing fourth in runs scored and fourth in OPS. There isn’t much star power in the lineup, save Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano, who finally put it all together last season. The Twins are very fundamentally sound as a group, but must get Sano through a full year to hit their ceiling.
Conclusion: If you can still find any bookmakers offering the Twins at 82.5 wins, hammer the over with the weight of your entire bankroll. The bottom of the AL Central is going to be an absolute mess this year, and the Twins stand to benefit the most.