Colorado Rockies: 82 wins
- Baseball Prospectus: 78 wins
- FanGraphs: 80 wins
None of the major outlets — Vegas or baseball media — are very bullish on the Rockies to build on their 87-win season and playoff berth. Colorado hit their Pythagorean record on the nose last year and did not lose any key contributors from last year’s Wild Card team.
The Rockies were able to get back to the playoffs thanks to solid pitching from youngsters Jon Gray, Kyle Freeland, German Marquez and Anthony Senzatela. Gray is absolutely an ace who has the right stuff to lead a staff at Coors Field. The rest of the group did outperform their peripheral statistics last season, but still managed to pitch well in the thin air at a young age. Betting on an implosion this early from a group that has been smartly groomed to pitch at Coors Field seems like a reach at this point.
Colorado’s offense will be explosive yet again, and could be even better than it was a year ago. David Dahl should return after a year lost to injury. He was one of the more exciting rookies to watch in 2016. Then, there’s always the trio of Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon and DJ LeMahieu to contend with. The Rockies also swapped out All-Star closer Greg Holland for Wade Davis.
Conclusion: The Rockies may be the team that loses out on the most wins due to the Giants if they are able to rebound from last year’s disaster. Still, 82 wins feels like selling a talented team very short.