Which draft prospects have the most at stake in the Sweet 16?
This year’s first weekend of the NCAA Tournament was a wild one, marked by several upsets of high-profile teams and NBA Draft prospects. Virginia’s legendary loss to 16-seeded University of Maryland-Baltimore County was the headliner, but over the course of the weekend, we lost DeAndre Ayton, Trae Young, Michael Porter Jr, Jaren Jackson Jr, Mohamed Bamba, Miles Bridges and Collin Sexton. That’s seven of the top 11 prospects on the Step Back’s pre-tournament big board. While high-level prospects suffering early exits are not uncommon, it’s notable to see so many names exit early, especially in what appears to be a front-loaded draft class.
While these players shift their focus to the draft process, the NCAA Tournament marches on with the Sweet 16 today, and the remaining players with NBA aspirations will attempt to capitalize on the exodus of their peers. The tournament isn’t the defining statement on how a player projects to the NBA — for good or bad — but it can be a valuable tool for solidifying stock, or at least putting your name on the map. The field will shrink from 16 teams to four, and no matter who those four teams are that punch a ticket to San Antonio, several players will come out of this weekend better off than when they entered it.
The player that likely has the most to gain from this weekend is the top-rated prospect left, Marvin Bagley of Duke. The ACC Player of the Year started strong in Duke’s first two games, posting 22 points and seven rebounds against Iona and 22 points and nine rebounds against Rhode Island in the second round. He’s been one of the more polarizing players in this year’s draft due to his high level of athleticism and production, but problematic defense and skill level, although he could definitely give himself a boost thanks to some strong performances as Duke tries to march to a title.
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In particular, Friday’s game against Syracuse will be interesting. In Duke’s regular season matchup with the Orange, Bagley had 19 points and seven rebounds in his first game post-injury, and nearly all of those came in the dunker role in their zone offense.
What will be worth monitoring this time around will be how Bagley has progressed as a decision-maker if he gets touches at the high post spot against the zone. Bagley isn’t a fantastic passer and he can be goaded into bad shots if given space, which is exactly what Syracuse wants. But with his driving ability and a progressing jumper (41.1 percent on 2-point jumpers, per Hoop-Math), Bagley can be a real threat to cave in the middle of the zone, opening things up for Grayson Allen, Gary Trent and the rest of Duke’s shooters. He should rip apart Syracuse’s back line when Carter is on the floor operating as the elbow man, but forcing Bagley to make reads in the zone offense would be valuable for some possessions.
A matchup with Kansas looms large as well for Bagley’s defense, as the Jayhawks will undoubtedly aim to put Bagley into some decision-making spots with their ball-movement, and Udoka Azubuike offers a threatening rebounder that can out-muscle Bagley for short stretches. Pass both of these tests, which will put the spotlight on Bagley’s weaknesses, and that may very well punch his ticket into a firm top-five draft pick, because he’s proving that his style of play, while potentially limiting his ceiling, is crucial to Duke’s potential deep run.
Other first-round level prospects have the chance to continue solidifying their cases for that distinction with a second solid weekend. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander of Kentucky and Robert Williams of Texas A&M will look to build on solid opening rounds in particular, hoping to secure lottery consideration. Gilgeous-Alexander has looked like Kentucky’s best prospect over the past two months, and after a slow start against Davidson, he went off for 27 points on 10-of-12 shooting, six rebounds and six assists against Buffalo. While his defense was lackluster against the Bulls, he is a more polished prospect on that end of the floor right now, and seeing him mature as a decision-maker and driver on offense has been exciting.
Williams, meanwhile, bounced back from a poor finish to SEC play with 27 rebounds in A&M’s wins over Providence and UNC. He’s taken a reduced role of late in the Aggie offense, but he’s now playing a role that’s more similar to what he’ll be asked to do in the NBA, and thriving.
A similar bounce-back should be the goal of Gonzaga prospect Killian Tillie as well, who struggled in the Zags’ first two games. UNC-Greensboro and Ohio State both exposed Tillie’s lack of size, and he suffered from getting man-handled throughout both games. That’s not going to get easier against Florida State, home of 7-foot-4 behemoth Christ Koumadjie, Michigan’s frontline of Moritz Wagner and Jon Teske or Williams and Tyler Davis of A&M this weekend. The advantage is that Tillie can drag some of those slower guys out to the perimeter, but still, continued issues with physicality are a problem for the Frenchman moving forward.
Finally, we have the players who have played or can play themselves into draft consideration, something Nigel Williams-Goss of Gonzaga and Sin’Darius Thornwell of South Carolina did in deep runs last season. The headliner here, of course, is Caleb Martin of Nevada, the 6-foot-7 junior fueling the Wolfpack’s Sweet 16 bid. The NC State transfer is an explosive driver to the rim and plays great team basketball, making extra passes and hustle plays, even defending the much larger Bamba with some success in the Texas game. He’s likely a second-round prospect, but one that should firmly be on radars thanks to his play in the tournament so far. Terence Mann of Florida State also has a chance to go from fringe prospect to firm second-round candidate with a successful showing against Gonzaga after an efficient offensive outing in helping the Seminoles put away Xavier.
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But perhaps no player has a better shot at securing a draft spot that he didn’t already have than Vince Edwards, the Purdue forward who scored 20 points on eight field goal attempts to help the Boilermakers put away Butler without star big man Isaac Haas. Edwards has a good frame to play both the three and four at the NBA level, and combining his efficient shooting with some standout defensive play has fueled Purdue’s Sweet 16 run.
The loss of Haas hurts the Boilermakers, but Edwards continuing to shoulder a big load against Texas Tech and potentially against Villanova should put him firmly on the NBA’s radar. He’s a very talented prospect at a position that unlocks a lot of lineup versatility for NBA teams, and if he leads Purdue back to the Final Four for the first time since 1980, expect Edwards to carry that momentum into the NBA Draft in a way that few other players can this weekend.