Fantasy Baseball 2018: 3 value picks in the top 100

The key to any successful fantasy baseball draft is to get value. Here are a few undervalued players with an ADP in the top-100.

We all love a bargain, and it is easy to see one when a player falls below his ADP. It doesn’t often happen in the first 100 picks, and if it does it is usually only by a few picks.

However, with a little bit of independent thought instead of blindly accepting ADP, there is value to be had even if you take a player at his recognized average draft position.

Here are three current top-100 players that we think represent excellent value for their draft position.

Anthony Rendon (ADP 47)

Last season, the former first-round pick produced the best year of his life with .937 OPS and career-highs with 25 home runs, 100 RBI, .301 AVG and .403 OBP.

His contributions were recognized by sixth-place in MVP voting, but the fantasy baseball world is either less impressed or just less convinced of a possible repeat performance.

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The 27-year-old has a legitimate shot at finishing in the top-10. He seldom swings and misses, and his excellent batting eye resulted in more walks than strikeouts.

Rendon has several double-digit stolen base seasons to his name and will likely hit cleanup in the stacked Nationals’ lineup behind Adam Eaton, Trea Turner and Bryce Harper.

At his current ADP of 47, Rendon offers exceptional value, and there is little to choose between him and first-rounder Kris Bryant.

Starling Marte (ADP 52)

With stolen bases more valuable in fantasy baseball this season than ever before, it is surprising that the Pirates’ center fielder is not more highly regarded. He is not even a top-50 player.

Since he debuted in 2012, Marte has swiped 181 bags at a rate of one every four games. The only players with better production on the base paths are Billy Hamilton, Dee Gordon, Jose Altuve, Jarrod Dyson and Rajai Davis. We can also include Trea Turner as well, as although he has stolen 100 fewer bases than Marte, they have come at a better rate.

You need to invest a top-5 pick to secure the services of Altuve or Turner. Dyson and Davis can be disregarded as one-trick, part-timers, and although Hamilton and Gordon offer elite levels of stolen bases, they give you nothing in the power categories of home runs and RBI.

Marte offers contributions in all five standard fantasy baseball categories at a level of production that is difficult to find outside of the first two rounds. If he swipes 40-45 bags with 15 home runs, 90 runs and a batting average of around .290, he will represent excellent fantasy value this year and will be a second rounder next season.

Just because they have traded Gerrit Cole and Andrew McCutchen, don’t write off the Pirates too early; there is still a lot of talent on their roster. Marte is likely to hit third, sandwiched between Corey Dickerson and Josh Bell.

Having missed a big chunk of last season due to suspension, Marte is making up for lost time with 1.208 OPS in Spring Training to go along with three home runs and six stolen bases.

Andrew McCutchen (ADP 79)

Yeah I get it, he had a bad year in 2016, but that doesn’t explain why the former MVP continues to slip down draft boards. 2016 was the only season the 31-year-old has ever only posted an OPS below .800, yet he bounced back last year with 28 home runs, double-digit stolen bases, 94 runs and 88 RBI.

My theory is that the fantasy baseball world gets confused when teams need to move their veteran players. McCutchen is the same age as first-rounder Charlie Blackmon, yet the way some people talk about him, he is on the verge of retirement.

With age has come greater selectivity of which pitches to hit, and McCutchen increased his walk rate while reducing his strike rate.

The move to San Francisco might seem like a slight downgrade but hitting third behind the OBP-specialists of Joe Panik and Brandon Belt will help his RBI-production, and he has Buster Posey and Evan Longoria hitting behind to drive him in.

Next: The worst draft slot this season is....

In my opinion, the worst value pick is the Brewers’ Domingo Santana (ADP 80 on Yahoo). Not only does he led Spring Training with 23 strikeouts in 46 plate appearances; that’s a 50% strikeout rate, but he faces a playing time squeeze in Milwaukee, sitting behind Ryan Braun and Eric Thames on the depth chart.

Thanks for reading. If you have any suggestions for future articles or just want to chat about fantasy baseball, find Gavin on Twitter @_tramps