Fantasy Baseball 2018: And the worse draft position is…
By Gavin Tramps
Draft strategy needs to change depending upon your draft position. Having participated in more mock drafts than I would like to admit, I’m convinced fourth is my least favored slot.
The first three or four rounds can make or break your fantasy baseball campaign. You can’t win with those draft picks, but it creates the base on which to build the rest of your roster.
I started writing an article about the pros and cons of the different draft slots and concluded that third, fourth and fifth were my least preferred positions. Predictably, I was drawn fourth for the JustFantasyBaseball.com Invitational League. I change my mind on an hourly basis about who to draft with my first round pick.
Fourth is so much worse than first, second or third. No one wants to finish fourth in the Olympics. So close to a medal yet you go home empty-handed.
There are many advantages in getting the first or second pick this season, namely that you are assured of one of the best two players in the game. Regardless of the format, Mike Trout and Jose Altuve should be the first two players off the board.
There have been too many stats thrown around and too many superlatives used to describe Trout’s ability, but it is still difficult to overstate his talent. Despite historic levels of production in previous seasons, his 181 wRC+ in 2017 was the best of his career, and he is still only 26 years old.
As if to signal his intention to expect further improvements in 2018, Trout has not struck out in his first 36 at-bats in Spring Training. Don’t over think it; it is not rocket science. Trout needs to be taken first.
Unlike many other seasons, there is an extraordinarily high level of talent available in the first two rounds. Wherever you pick, you can get two elite hitters if you want them.
If I can’t have Trout, then my ideal slot would be a pick at the end of the first round, to combine an elite hitter with one of the ‘big-4’ starting pitchers of Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Chris Sale or Corey Kluber.
There is a distinct drop off between these four starters and the next tier, headlined by the more risky picks of Stephen Strasburg, Madison Bumgarner and Noah Syndergaard.
Taking Kluber with Giancarlo Stanton back-to-back at the end of the first round would give you the NL MVP and the AL Cy Young Award winner. That is an excellent way to start your draft.
Missing out on one of the ‘big-4’ starters is one of the main reasons I dislike the third, fourth and fifth picks.
At least with the third pick, you can decide in advance who you are taking and plan accordingly. With the fourth pick, you are in limbo until you are on the clock in the first round.
Nolan Arenado is the safe, reliable choice. He has averaged 40 home runs with over 130 RBI for three straight seasons. If he has a downside, it is that he offers no speed, and perhaps his OBP is not as elite as other first-rounders.
The Dodgers’ ace, Kershaw, is the usual fourth pick on Yahoo. Without a doubt, he is the best pitcher on a ‘per inning’ basis, but over the last two seasons, he has thrown 100 fewer innings than Max Scherzer or Chris Sale. That significant difference makes it difficult to reach to take him this early.
The speed/power/average combination offered by Paul Goldschmidt could be the closest thing available to elite five-category production outside of Trout. The Diamondbacks’ star has hit .304 over the last five years with .410 OBP, averaging over 100 runs and 100 RBI with 30 home runs and 19 stolen bases.
He looks like the best option outside of the top-2 but let’s be honest, the humidor is scary. We don’t know how it will affect Arizona’s hitters, and most projection systems have a reduction in runs, home runs and RBI for Goldschmidt of around 20%.
Arguably, the player with the highest upside outside of the top-2 is Bryce Harper. In 2015, he hit 42 home runs and scored 118 runs with a .330 average. The following season he swiped more than 20 bags.
It would not be surprising if he won the MVP again but as he only stole four bases last season, his ceiling looks to be as a four-category fantasy player. Also, you need to accept that his high-intensity playing style will likely result in another DL stretch.
The Rockies’ Charlie Blackmon hit as many home runs as teammate Arenado but scored 37 more runs, while swiping 14 bags and posting the second-highest batting average of any of the players in the first two rounds.
He is a roto-superstar, but while most of his game is improving, his stolen bases are declining. The Rockies resisted moving the outfielder, so he will enjoy another season in the hitter-friendly environment of Coors Field and looks a safe bet for elite numbers unless there is a sudden drop off in production for the oldest player in the first round.
The Nationals’ shortstop Trea Turner is the trendy pick. Stolen bases are far less prevalent than home runs, and the 24-year-old has game-changing speed. Don’t think he is just a one-dimensional player; his 162-game Major League average is 109 runs, 20 home runs, 70 RBI, 66 stolen bases and .304 AVG. That is production worthy of the third or fourth overall pick, but Turner’s limited Major League track record makes him a first-round gamble.
The final player in the discussion as the fourth pick is Red Sox’ outfielder Mookie Betts. In a season widely touted as a disappointment for the 25-year-old, he scored over 100 runs with more than 100 RBI to go along with 24 home runs and 26 stolen bases.
His .264 AVG was pushed down by a BABIP 50 points lower than his career-average, so some normalization should return his batting average to the .300 range. Although, if his batting average slips below .270 again, that will really hurt from your first round pick.
By the time the second round pick comes around, the options are more limited from my No. 4 slot. Either I reach for a risky starter or take the best available hitter.
Anthony Rizzo and Freddie Freeman should be available. They are both safe, elite hitters, but will not combine well if a first baseman was taken with the first pick.
The Indians’ infield duo of Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez are sensational in real life and fantasy, but it feels like regression is inevitable. Ramirez matched Harper and Bryant in home runs, while Lindor went deep the same number of times as Trout. It doesn’t seem likely that will happen again.
Give me a pick at the wheel. It is not the downgrade of previous years. I used the FantasyPros Mock Draft simulator to see which players would fall to the wheel picks and Kershaw/Machado, Kluber/Votto, Sale/Blackmon and Bryant/Scherzer were the combinations for the four test runs.
All four are excellent pairings to start your draft.