The Milwaukee Brewers got aggressive during the off-season with money and a big trade but questions abound about the pitching.
It was a surprising season for the Brew Crew in 2017 as they finished with 86 wins and didn’t miss out on the playoffs by a whole lot. What’s kind of funny is the perception is the Brewers were a powerhouse offensive squad. The inverse was actually true as Milwaukee finished in the top 10 in team ERA and 20th in runs. That formula worked out in 2017 but is unlikely to repeat in 2018.
The offense should perk up quite a bit with the additions of outfielders Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain. Both players should benefit from switching from two of the worst ballparks for hitters in the majors to one of the best. Ryan Braun is still kicking around the middle of the lineup and they have a boatload of complimentary players. Outfielder Domingo Santana is an especially attractive trade chip if the Brewers struggle to get everyone consistent at-bats.
The rotation looks iffy at best after Jimmy Nelson injured his shoulder towards the end of last season. His timetable remains unclear and the men left standing don’t inspire a ton of confidence on paper. Chase Anderson, Zach Davies, Jhoulys Chacin, Brent Suter, and Wade Miley are the rotation that Milwaukee will enter the season with. Those players would be best served as either third or fourth options in better rotations. The bullpen looks formidable at the backend with the combo of Josh Hader and closer Corey Knebel.
Best Case Scenario
Milwaukee could eke their way into a Wild Card berth if the offense takes a nice step forward with their new players. Ryan Braun could be key and he’s still capable of being a very good all-around player if health is on his side. Of course, if he can’t stay on the field, there’s a ton of options to take his place. Manager Craig Counsell will have his hands full juggling his players and keeping them happy but the offense can explode on any given night. The best thing is there’s a variety of ways they can get the job done. They can hit for average, power, and they can steal bases. Watch for third baseman Travis Shaw. He carried an odd split last year and was much better on the road with a .937 OPS on the road. If he can do that at home as well this year, the offense swings pretty dramatically.
The rotation likely doesn’t have the highest ceiling out there but if they can just be average, the Brewers can win a ton of games. Jimmy Nelson is going to be a big gain towards the middle of the season. If at least two or three of the starters can keep their ERA in the high three’s, Milwaukee will be in a great spot. The bullpen can go a long way towards helping in the close games.
Worst Case Scenario
As exciting as it as to bring in Yelich and Cain, the Brewers may regret not using one of their big bullets on a pitcher. They spent $80 million on Cain and shipped off a significant group of prospects to Miami for Yelich. One could argue that the Brewers would have been a lot better if they had split their efforts and brought in at least one above-average starter. Their ragtag rotation could be their undoing, especially if the offense stays in the bottom half of the league.
One of the biggest issues for the offense is the number of strikeouts they have to deal with. They led all of baseball in that category last year and Yelich and Cain should help that number. However, Milwaukee’s offense is still very dependent on a lot of players performing despite their high strikeout rate. There’s not a lot of margin for error built into the offense. Even if the Brewers aren’t counting on Braun for a lot, they are banking on a lot of high variance players. If it goes poorly, the run production could dip even further. The pitching likely can’t make up the difference.
Team MVP
Christian Yelich – Outfield
Yelich is already a touch underrated around baseball as he’s a great all-around player. He can do a little bit of everything. Yelich hits for a good average, hits for some power, steals some bases and plays reasonable defense. The lineup directly around him isn’t really any better than last year as he batted around Marcell Ozuna and Giancarlo Stanton in Miami. He is in a better lineup than what the Marlins are going to trot out this season and has seen a night-and-day shift in his home ballpark. 2018 is going to be a true breakout season for Yelich as the Brewers try to make a postseason run.
Prediction
Milwaukee has a lot of the tools and the talent needed to make the postseason but are missing a key ingredient: a reliable high-end pitcher. In the end, it’s going to cost them if they can’t address it during the season. That’s certainly not impossible as they have a plethora of offensive players to move to fill that need. As exciting as the offense could be, it’s hard to see them get over the hump without some type of ace-caliber to put out every fifth day. It’s not impossible but the offense better improve and Jimmy Nelson can’t skip a beat when he comes back.