The Tampa Bay Rays are starting a new era without Evan Longoria, and there could be more moves in store to stoke the rebuild.
For the first time in a decade, the Tampa Bay Rays will begin a season without All-Star and franchise icon Evan Longoria. The best player in Rays history was traded to the San Francisco Giants in a move that signaled the beginning of a larger rebuilding effort. Before the end of the offseason, the Rays would move All-Star left fielder Corey Dickerson in a puzzling DFA and trade established big leaguers Jake Odorizzi and Steven Souza. The end result of all the moves leaves more questions than answers regarding the direction of the Rays as a franchise.
The Rays made a run to the top of the Wild Card standings in the first half of last season on the strength of homer-happy starts for Dickerson, Souza and Logan Morrison. All three cooled significantly in the second half, and the Rays offense cratered. The front office actually decided to go for it, trading for Lucas Duda and Steve Cishek, but it wasn’t enough. The Rays were a sub-.500 team again, with serious doubts about their future in the competitive AL East.
Unlike some of the other rebuilding teams in the league, the Rays roster has not been completely stripped of talent. Chris Archer remains atop the rotation, Gold Glover Kevin Kiermaier still patrols center field, while Alex Colome will handle the closing duties. Young starters Jake Faria and Blake Snell have flashed dominant stuff during their early MLB careers and will finally be given a chance at a full season in the big leagues.
If things break right, the Rays can still make a run at a playoff berth in 2018 on the backs of their starters. More likely, however, is a deepening of the rebuilding effort with Archer and Colome hitting the trade block by midseason.
Best Case Scenario
The Rays still have quite a few interesting pieces even after their spree of trades this winter. Chris Archer does have what it takes to lead a rotation, and he puts together a consistent season after two up-and-down years. Behind Archer, Blake Snell and Jacob Faria take things to the next level. In the hitter-friendly AL East, pitching is the one way for a small-market team to keep things even with the big spenders.
On offense, the Rays remain powerful, but more consistent than they were last year. Brad Miller bounces back from an ugly 2017 season and hits 30 home runs again. Behind the plate, Wilson Ramos approaches his strong 2016 numbers, while Carlos Gomez brings a dynamic presence to right field. In center field, Kevin Kiermaier continues to play all-world defense, but also kicks his offensive production up to a higher level.
It won’t take much more than 85 wins to claim the final playoff spot in the American League this year, and if everything goes 100 percent perfectly for the Rays, they can stay right in that conversation the entire year and surprise a lot of baseball fans.
Worst Case Scenario
In some ways, the worst-case scenario already started unfolding for the Rays when top pitching prospect Brent Honeywell went down with Tommy John just days after the start of camp. Losing Honeywell was a devastating blow for the Rays, as he was ready to have a big impact at the MLB level this year after being held back last year. If Archer, Snell or Faria are injured this year, Tampa Bay would be hard-pressed to recover.
The ultimate worst-case scenario for the Rays would be losing Archer, their top remaining trade chip, to a serious arm injury. It’s not a matter of if, but when, the Rays trade their ace, and an injury would significantly reduce his value. Archer could also start the season slowly, making trading him this summer more difficult.
Worst case — Tampa Bay suffers an injury in the starting rotation, making their experiment with a four-man staff that much more perilous. The Rays lose over 90 games, finish in last place and fail to make any more progress with their rebuild.
Team MVP
Chris Archer — SP
Chris Archer has one of the most electric right arms in baseball, but the results have been all over the place for the past two years. The 29-year-old is just 19-31 with a 4.05 ERA since 2016 despite striking out 10.8 per nine. By ERA+, Archer has been almost exactly league average despite having very strong peripheral numbers.
With the trade rumors continuing to swirl, Archer will shake things off in 2018 and get back to pitching like the budding ace who gave the Rays a 3.26 ERA from 2013 to 2015. The issue with Archer has been the home run, but if he commands all of his pitches, the right-hander is an easy Cy Young contender. He is the best the Rays have to offer in 2018.
Prediction
The Rays won’t be quite as hard to watch as the Miami Marlins, but they might be just as bad by the end of the year. Tampa Bay will hold onto their big trade chips like Chris Archer and Alex Colome until the trade deadline, but the offers coming in will be too strong to ignore. The Rays finish well below .500 this year and fall back into last place, but with strong returns from their midseason trades, the future is still bright.