To hedge or not to hedge: 300 to 1 bet on Loyola could pay $45K

ATLANTA, GA - MARCH 24: The Loyola Ramblers celebrate after defeating the Kansas State Wildcats during the 2018 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament South Regional at Philips Arena on March 24, 2018 in Atlanta, Georgia. Loyola defeated Kansas State 78-62 to advance to the Final Four. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images) /

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Harrah’s Las Vegas Hotel box dealer. (Photo by: Jeffrey Greenberg/UIG via Getty Images) /

Why let it ride on Loyola?

At the moment, Loyola is 12/1 to win the tournament. The spread against Michigan has the Wolverines favored by 5 points with a moneyline on Loyola around +200 (if you bet $100 on Loyola, you’d win $200).

Vegas, and most people, would say that Loyola’s chances of even beating Michigan are slim. The odds of them following with another win over Nova or Kansas are beyond long. 12/1 is a decent horse to take in the Kentucky Derby but in a field of four horses with the next lowest being 3/1, Loyola is like a 50/1 horse.

But bookmakers and college basketball experts have given Loyola long odds all along, so why start listening now? They’ve been the underdog in every tournament game so far, and it hasn’t mattered to them. They’re still playing.

They were under the radar for a game or two, but they’ve been the story of the tournament since they made the Sweet Sixteen. With all eyes watching, they’ve elevated their play to top a Nevada team that had just beaten a No. 2 seed and Kansas State that eliminated Kentucky in the Sweet Sixteen.

Loyola is seemingly getting better as the tournament goes on — two last second shots, then a one-point win in a game they controlled for the entire half, then a double-digit win over Kansas State.

Maybe the Ramblers are hitting their stride and have some of their best basketball in front of them.

They’re experienced, well-coached, balanced and share the ball as well as any team in college basketball. They’ve had four different leading scorers in their four tournament wins so who do teams focus on stopping? Their three starting guards are all great passers, can get to the basket, and can light it up from outside. Aren’t guard play and defense what every analyst says wins the tournament?

And do you really want to bet against Sister Jean?

I have. Twice. It hasn’t gone well.

How much sweeter is a Loyola win going to be if they finish it off? How much more are you going to enjoy the run and the $45,000 if you stick with the Ramblers all the way?

Sometimes a team is just a team of destiny. No stat, analysis, or rational explanation can account for it. Sometimes a bunch of unselfish guys and a 98-year-old nun were just meant to be. You got lucky enough to get in at the ground floor, why jump off near the top?

What would Nick Papagiorgio do?