To hedge or not to hedge: 300 to 1 bet on Loyola could pay $45K

ATLANTA, GA - MARCH 24: The Loyola Ramblers celebrate after defeating the Kansas State Wildcats during the 2018 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament South Regional at Philips Arena on March 24, 2018 in Atlanta, Georgia. Loyola defeated Kansas State 78-62 to advance to the Final Four. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images) /

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(Photo by Gordon Chibroski/Portland Press Herald via Getty Images) /

Why hedge?

As unbelievable as Loyola’s run has been, they aren’t in completely uncharted waters for a mid-major. Others have made it this far and even a game further, but none have finished it off with their fans being able to cash in a long shot title bet.

VCU in 2011, George Mason in 2006, and Wichita State in 2013 all made the Final Four. Butler, even with one of the best basketball coaches on the planet and two future NBA players, lost in the title game twice. Is this Loyola team good enough to do what none of those teams could?

And let’s look back at the teams Loyola has played so far.

It took a buzzer beater to survive No. 6 seed in Miami and a Clayton Custer mid range jumper rimmed in with 5 seconds on the clock to move past No. 3 Tennessee. Loyola survived a surge of late threes from Caleb Martin to top 7 seed Nevada. Finally, they beat No. 9 seed Kansas State handily to make the Final Four.

Nos. 6, 3, 7, and 9. That’s a collection of pretty highly seeded teams on the way to the Final Four, not to mention that Tennessee was without Kyle Alexander, their best interior defender, and Kansas State was without their leading scorer, Dean Wade.

Maybe Sister Jean’s magic has been as much about the path that the Ramblers have had as their actual wins.

Either way, they’ll be playing the two best teams they’ve seen all year and all tournament by a considerable margin in Michigan and the winner of Kansas and Villanova.

All three finished the season ranked in the top 10 and won their conference tournaments. All three have NBA players on their rosters, upperclass leadership, phenomenal coaching, and they all do the things that Loyola does just as well.

Michigan has won 13 straight games but they’ve been up and down when it comes to shooting in the tournament. So far they’ve gone back and forth between on fire and ice-cold. Their inconsistency could bode well for Loyola or the fact that they shot 18 percent from three in their last game could mean that they’re due for a game shooting 13 for 22.

The more you look at the three possible opponents, the taller the task looks. All that aside, these are the reasons I’m hedging in this situation — I’d have a heart attack watching these next two games and if I felt like I had $45,000 in my reach and let all of it get away, I’d have a hard time letting that one go.

So how do you hedge to protect yourself and make sure you still come away with a decent chunk of what you’d stand to win on Loyola?