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Matt Harvey owns Bryce Harper, and that won’t change

By Baasil Ebrahim

PHILADELPHIA, PA - SEPTEMBER 29: Matt Harvey #33 of the New York Mets pitches against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park on September 29, 2017 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)
PHILADELPHIA, PA - SEPTEMBER 29: Matt Harvey #33 of the New York Mets pitches against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park on September 29, 2017 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images) /
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Matt Harvey has dominated Bryce Harper, including Harper starting his career 0-20 against Harvey, here is how he’s done it.

Bryce Harper has five All-Star appearances and one MVP award under his belt, he is one of the best hitters in the game but cannot figure out Matt Harvey. Harper has a career OPS of .902, but his OPS against Harvey is .324 in 29 career at bats. This is by far the lowest of anybody Harper has faced 20 times. In comparison, he has a 1.664 OPS off of Julio Teheran.

Harper himself acknowledged this on Baseball Tonight’s Podcast. When asked who his least favorite pitcher to face was, he responded:

"“Matt Harvey, I don’t know why … I always seem to struggle a little bit against him. He knows that and I feel like all of baseball knows that”"

We can see exactly how Matt Harvey is able to neutralize one of the biggest bats in baseball by looking at the pitch mix he throws Harper, as well as where he locates his pitches.

Pitch-by-Pitch data from Baseball Savant – provides pitch types, pitch locations, and exit velocities

Starting with Harper, the area in which he has the highest whiff rate is just below the strike zone, where his whiff rate is around 20%. This would imply that the majority of the pitches against him should be there, yet Harvey throws 31.5% of his pitches against him high and out of the strike zone, compared to 22% low and out of the strike zone.

This counter-intuitive approach is founded in the fact that Harper also hits for a higher slugging percentage in the bottom of the zone, making that area high risk. It appears that Harvey pitches to areas where Harper is less likely to swing and miss but won’t hit for as much power. This is backed up by Harper’s exit velocity against Harvey. Harper has an average exit velocity of 88.22 mpg against Harvey, versus an average of 89.85 mph on average the last three years.

There is more to see when looking at the pitch mix Harvey throws to Harper. Against Harper, Harvey throws 71% fastballs, occasionally mixing in breaking pitches. This is significantly up from the usual 59% he throws to left-handed hitters usually.

Pitch location zones from catcher’s perspective; courtesy of Baseball Savant
Pitch location zones from catcher’s perspective; courtesy of Baseball Savant /

This is done for a specific reason as well. When looking at Harper’s whiff rate against fastballs, it is highest on pitches high and outside. Again, Harvey throws 26% of his pitches in Baseball Savant’s zone 11 which is high and outside, and the majority of the strikes he throws (53%) are in zones 1, 4, and 7 which cover the outside of the plate.

Harvey is daring Harper to catch up to high fastballs which Harper hasn’t been able to do over the course of his career. This plays into Harvey’s strength. The highest whiff rate on his fastball is above the strike zone.

The weakest part of Harper’s game when approaching the plate is the high fastball and that is the best place for Harvey to throw his fastball. It seems as though Harvey is simply the optimal pitcher to face Harper. He also sacrifices throwing his breaking pitches, which have higher whiff rates, to pitch specifically to Harper’s weaknesses.

Next: Best Starting Pitchers in MLB History

To put it simply, Harvey pitches to the spot where Harper has the least power with the pitch that produces the highest whiff rate.

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