MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – Opening Day
Welcome to the Opening Day edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind MLB DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s MLB DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference, to help you build your best line-up and win big!
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your MLB DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
MLB DFS – Welcome Back Baseball:
It certainly does not seem that long ago we were watching the Houston Astros celebrate their World Series title and now we sit just mere days away from the start of another MLB DFS season.
For those of you who have followed my Picks and Pivots column throughout the NBA season, you should expect a similar look and feel to the MLB season as each day I will bring you my top plays and slate thoughts using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference. Please keep in mind that just because I am using FantasyDraft as the platform in this instance it should not prohibit you from applying the same logic and thought process to other DFS sites as you see it.
My first piece of advice as we head into this MLB DFS season is to familiarize yourself with the scoring and roster set-ups for the various DFS platforms as it is important to understand the slight pricing differences and roster builds you can utilize across the different sites. Do not simply jump into building a roster, although I certainly understand the excitement, for some this is a new sport to attack and for others it is worth the refresher after an MLB DFS off-season that has seen big changes on sites like FanDuel where they eliminated the Catcher position and have gone with a C/1B hybrid as an example.
Below you will see the scoring for FantasyDraft which is very similar to my experiences on DraftKings with perhaps the biggest difference being the roster build with allows for the most flexible roster construction across the major sites as you are required to roster two SP’s, 3 IF’s, 3 OF’s and 2 UTIL spots.
On FantasyDraft as an example, the Opening Day slate will start at 3:05PM EST which means we have nine baseball games to choose from as we break down our rosters. Remember that this is a first look so feel free to reach out to me on Twitter @2LockSports for my latest thoughts as I will always do my best to answer reader’s questions – now let’s get into the action!
MLB DFS – Top Starting Pitcher Options:
If there is one stat that tends to dominate your MLB DFS pitching selections more than any other it is strikeouts, as the elite strikeout arms tend to be the prefered target especially when shooting for upside in tournaments. On Opening Day especially we have our pick of some of the best strikeout arms in the business as four of the top 15 strikeout arms in baseball last season will take the hill for the FantasyDraft Main Slate.
Chris Sale ($22.9K) is the cream of the crop on this slate as he was not only the top strikeout arm in all of baseball last season with an absurd 36.2% K rate while generating a swinging strike rate just under 15% which was 4th in all of baseball. No matter the metric, Sale stands out as an elite play and when you look at the match-up with a Tampa Bay Rays team that struck out at the third highest clip in all of baseball last season, this looks like the ideal match-up to pay up for.
Last season, Sale faced the Rays six times and struck them out 12 or more times in four of those games and racked up 9, 12 and 13 K’s in his three starts in Tampa Bay. Now it is worth noting that Sale did leave his last Spring Training start after being hit with a come-backer but it looks like there are no serious issues here and Sale should be good to go for his first start of the season.
Chris Sale diagnosed with a bruise in his left hip. No fracture.
— Jorge L. Ortiz (@jorgelortiz) March 24, 2018
One other key-note here, the Rays are not even remotely close to the same team that we saw last year as the three biggest strikeout bats in the line-up in Steven Souza Jr. (29%), Logan Morrison (25%) and Corey Dickerson (24%) are all now in other cities which in theory should bring down the K upside of Sale just a bit. The other side of the coin is that they were replaced with guys like Carlos Gomez (29%) and CJ Cron (25%) so not only will we still have strikeouts, we have one of the weakest line-ups in all of baseball to attack here.
The current Rays roster is batting .191 against Sale in their careers with a whopping 31% K rate over 89 plate appearances so in my mind the combination of a weak hitting line-up and the K upside makes Sale the easy play in cash games and a tough fade for me in GPP’s.
UPDATE: Initially I had Max Scherzer in this spot but we got word on Wednesday afternoon that the Nationals/Reds game would be PPD which has massive implications on this slate.
First off, on FantasyDraft this will now flood ownership towards Sale as Scherzer was the only true elite pivot so be prepared for massive ownership numbers on Sale. Secondly, the Nationals bats against Homer Bailey were going to be a popular stack so you will see inflated ownership now on the other key stacks of the day (more on that in a moment).
What this means for me – I think you just have to lock in Sale (even more so now) on a site like FantasyDraft where you roster two pitchers. The difference between Sale and the second highest scoring pitcher on the slate could be massive so I would make locking in the Red Sox ace priority #1 on Opening Day.
MLB DFS – Pivot Pitching Options:
There is an interesting second tier of arms on this slate including Luis Severino ($18.7K) and Aaron Nola ($17.8K) who ranked 6th and 14th respectively in K rate across all of Major League Baseball last season. Severino at 29.4% and Nola at 26.6% both bring solid strikeout upside to the table and are viable mid-range options but frankly I think if you are paying up at all, it needs to be to get Sale so both pitchers noted here are more GPP options for me than core plays. I will say that the Scherzer scratch makes this tier a little more appealing than it was at first glance but it will be tough to get Sale in a line-up you like with one of these two higher priced arms.
The one value option that stands out to me is Chase Anderson ($13.8K) as he will get the Opening Day nod for the Brewers in one of the best pitching spots in baseball, Petco Park in San Diego. At first glance, Anderson’s numbers from last season may not stand out but as FanGraphs pointed out in their player profile there was a change in his pitching methodology that resulted in an uptick in his K rate over the remainder of the season.
"“Something happened to Chase Anderson in 2017. No, not the oblique strain that sidelined him for nearly two months, and definitely not the queasy first nine starts of the year that returned a 4.25 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, and ghastly 10.3% K%-BB%. Rather, Anderson was a new man for his final 16 starts, adding a tick of velocity to his fastball while turning into a pitcher’s pitcher as he utilized each weapon in his arsenal. From setting up batters with cutters catching the corners and changeups keeping batters off balance to ground ball-inducing curveballs and elevated four-seamers, Anderson was a pure stud across four months. Seriously, a stud: 25.8% K rate, 6.2% BB rate, 1.94 ERA, and 0.90 WHIP across 92.2 frames.”"
When you dig deeper and do some more research on Anderson you will find this is a pitcher who reduced his HR rate, saw an uptick in velocity and with it came a boost in his swinging strike numbers as Paul Sporer from FanGraphs pointed out. If you look from the first half to the second half of the season, almost every meaningful metric improves as his GB rate went up, his hard contact rate came down 3% while his walk rate dropped at the same time his K rate sae a slight uptick.
What Anderson gives you on this slate is a viable SP2 to pair with Sale while opening up some salary to stack up some big time bats. The match-up with the Padres is one that in Petco Park should limit the damage on the offensive side as even with the addition of Eric Hosmer, this is not a team we should be afraid to attack with opposing pitching.
At the same price point, I also like the idea of using Garrett Richards ($13.7K) who in limited innings last season had a 25% K rate, 6% BB rate and 13% swinging strike rate. As you can see below in the FanGraphs player profiles, Ruchards has an elite ability to limit hard contact while generating not only a lot of swings and misses but his career 53% GB rate would put him in elite company behind only Clayton Richard of all the pitchers on this slate.
"Profile: Richards’ past two seasons have resulted in just 12 starts due to arm troubles, and it’s really unfortunate. Richards possesses great talent not only from a velocity perspective (96 mph with both a four-seamer and two-seamer) but he also carries excellent contact management skills, inducing just 26.1% hard contact across his entire career. The secret is in his repertoire. His four-seamer and two-seamer play well off each other, each darting in different directions at elite velocities as his four-seamer features a hint of cut action. With batters already struggling to barrel up his heat, Richards features a slider he favors nearly 30% of the time that gets plenty of chases off the plate, helping create its career .189 BAA. While he’s been tinkering on-and-off with a changeup, his real third option is a big curveball that freezes batters in the box constantly. Don’t let its 11.4% career whiff rate fool you – its 35.7% swing rate has allowed Richards to boast a 43.0% career strikeout rate with the pitch. The mix of heaters and breaking balls work well for Richards, though there is one area for improvement: a career 8.4% walk rate. If he can focus on throwing his slider early in counts for strikes more often, it’s a good enough pitch that could help hold back the walks and push toward a lower ERA and WHIP. Just stay healthy, please. (Nick Pollack)"
Personally, I love that Richards and Anderson are interchangeable in this price tier as you can submit multiple line-ups with the same base core while only swapping out the two pitchers who both have a high K rate and are priced at a significant discount compared to the other high K arms on this slate.
Lastly, if you need a super cheap punt to go high/low with Sale, I would not be opposed to using Clayton Richard ($10.9K) who is the cheapest pitcher on the FantasyDraft slate now that Homer Bailey is PPD. Richard was not a guy initially on my radar due to his lack of K upside but one of the things I do religiously in MLB DFS is to read around the industry to see if people I respect are touting a guy like Richard who I was not even considering and then I will dive in some more.
The knock on Richard is really that he gets lit up by RHB and although the Brewers do have some solid ones in Lorenzo Cain and Ryan Braun, I think the fact Richard is pitching IN San Diego could be what sways me. Last year for example, Richard gave up 1.42 HR/9 to RHB but that was driven by an over 2 HR/9 mark on the road as compared to 0.9 HR/9 at home. It is also interesting to note that Richards K rate went up at home by over 2% while his walk rate decreased to 6% while maintaining an elite 58% GB rate.
Last year, Richard faced this Milwaukee team once at home and there were some wildly different outcomes you can point to. First the good – he gave up 0 HR, 0 walks and had 7 K’s – all good right? Wrong – he also gave up 10 hits and 6 ER – on a series of singles and doubles albeit with a 39% hard contact rate.
Listen there is risk here but I do think it is worth noting that Richard’s xFIP was a run lower than his home ERA which is a signal that regression/bad luck played into his runs allowed. Even just using that Milwaukee game last year as a sample size, if you told me my SP would give up no home runs, not walk a single batter and strike out 7, you would sign up for that right now before lineups lock and move on. There is risk here but also some sneaky upside that allows you to pair Sale with a monster line-up.
MLB DFS – Offensive Stacks:
If there is one team in MLB DFS this season that is going to be stacked early and often it is the New York Yankees who added slugger Giancarlo Stanton ($10.2K) to an already stacked line-up that included Aaron Judge ($10.3K) which makes this one of the most dangerous DFS stacking duos you can roster this year.
The first test of the year will come in Toronto against lefty J.A. Happ which could be a troublesome spot for the Jays southpaw against this right-handed power line-up. At home last season, Happ surrendered a 31% hard contact to RHB while his HR rate and BB walk rose at home and he saw his K rate drop compared to being on the road. So let’s see, walks, hard hits and less K’s against this line-up – oh boy.
Now don’t get me wrong Happ is hardly the worst SP on the slate (more on that in a moment) but what you are banking on here is the upside of the Yankees bats and with so much focus on the high dollar pitching it will be tough to fit these guys in unless you get creative elsewhere. One of the ways I think you can make this duo work is to pair them with the secondary cheaper Yankee bats like Brandon Drury ($6.8K) and Aaron Hicks ($6.5K) as we could see them bat 5/6 in this New York line-up on Opening Day with the latest injury to Greg Bird who is out 6-8 weeks. If Drury/Hicks or even Neil Walker ($5.9K) find themselves in those prime RBI spots behind Stanton/Judge it would make for an elite stacking spot as the RBI opportunities should be plentiful assuming Happ can keep the ball in the ballpark against the Yankees Bash Brothers.
One thing to note on FantasyDraft is that you can stack up six batters from the same team so there is merit to mixing/matching a view of the secondary Yankee options once we know the line-up with Judge/Stanton and even including a third big bat like Gary Sanchez ($9.4K) as there is enough secondary value to open up the salary needed to stack this team up and down!
UPDATE: The Yankees have now released their line-up and not surprisingly it is Judge-Stanton-Sanchez batting 2-4 and now that we know Aaron Hicks is batting 5th I simply love him as the 4th member of that stack when you consider his price and line-up spot. I do think you can make the case for a wrap-around stack as well with Walker (8th), Tyler Austin(9th) and Brett Gardner(1st) batting ahead of the big boppers in what will likely be a contrarian way to stack a very chalky Yankee lineup.
It may seem crazy to think we can stack up the Yankees studs AND still pay for Sale but one of the key paths to this build is locking in some of the Royals batters tonight as they get to face arguably the worst pitcher on the slate in James Shields. Shields against LHB is one of the most exploitable match-ups in baseball as evidenced by his numbers last year – 2.82 HR/9 with a 16% K rate and 12% walk rate while giving up a 33% hard contact rate to hitters from both sides of the plate.
The Royals line-up lost Eric Hosmer and Lorenzo Cain but there are still some cheap lefty power bats here we can exploit including Mike Moustakas ($7.7K) and Lucas Duda ($7.6K). Moose is 5 for 10 in his career against Shields with an HR while Dude is 3 for 9 with 1 HR and both have the ability to pay off their salary with one swing of the bat here. In MLB DFS, if I am going to play a one-off or a mini stack then I want to shoot for power and on this slate the Royals LHB allow me to chase upside while keeping my salary commitments to a reasonable level.
MLB DFS – Sample Line-Up and Slate Overview:
Below please find a sample FantasyDraft MLB line-up that is used for illustrative purposes only to emphasize the logic laid out in this article. This is not meant to be an optimized line-up and may differ from the roster construction I personally use.
More from FanSided
- Cardinals Rumors: Surprise extension, Dylan Carlson-Yankees link, Rays trade idea
- USWNT vs. Vietnam: Key takeaways before they take on the Dutch
- NFL rumors: 49ers trending toward contract drama with defensive star
- Steelers avoid any camp drama with latest roster move
- MLB Rumors: Potential Braves reunion, Lance Lynn no-trade clause and Orioles deadline intentions
FantasyDraft MLB DFS Sample Line-Up:
SP: Chris Sale ($22.9K)
SP: Chase Anderson ($13.8K)
IF: Gary Sanchez ($9.4K)
IF: Mike Moustakas ($7.7K)
IF: Lucas Duda ($7.6K)
OF: Aaron Judge ($10.3K)
OF: Giancarlo Stanton ($10.2K)
OF: Brandon Drury ($6.8K)
UTIL: Neil Walker ($5.9K)
UTIL: Luis Valbuena ($5.4K)
Slate Overview: Obviously we have a ton of time before Opening Day so we are still waiting on some line-ups to come through before we can finalize and with a ton of weather concerns we may get more PPD news like we have with the Reds/Nats. There seems to be enough value in the NY secondary pieces and with some of the Royals left-handed bats to make a Sale/Judge/Stanton trio work and it would be hard to argue with the upside there. I cannot wait to write-up MLB DFS for you each day and please do not hesitate to reach out to me each day with questions or comments on Twitter. WELCOME BACK BASEBALL!
Next: DFS MLB - Top Five Hitters in Chase Field
Best of luck across all your MLB DFS contests on FantasyDraft, FanDuel and DraftKings and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR as we break down our top picks and plays across all three sites!