The Toronto Blue Jays have what it takes to shake off last year’s disappointing season and make a playoff run.
After two straight trips to the ALCS, the Toronto Blue Jays entered 2017 with expectations as high as ever. An 8-17 start in the month of April with a sputtering offense put them in a hole that would prove impossible to dig out of. The Blue Jays would not spend a single day above .500 the entire year, and were only bailed out of a last-place finish when the Baltimore Orioles packed it up in September after falling out of contention.
The Blue Jays fielded one of the oldest starting lineups in the league last year, and that will again be the case in 2018 as the roster is essentially locked in with prospects still a year or two away from being ready to take over. Minor moves were made around the fringes to upgrade the roster, but swapping out 37-year-old Jose Bautista for 37-year-old Curtis Granderson isn’t much of an upgrade. Randal Grichuk, though is an intriguing player who never quite figured it out in St. Louis.
Toronto scored the fewest runs in the American League and had the second-worst OPS last year, so there’s only one direction for the offense to go. Josh Donaldson has to stay healthy and have a huge year before he hits free agency. Devon Travis returns at second base after another injury-plagued season, and has always hinted at All-Star potential when able to take the field.
For the Jays, the biggest rebound will have to come from the starting rotation. Aaron Sanchez’s battles with blisters last year are one of the most puzzling injuries in recent MLB history. The young right-hander was dominant in 2016, and there’s no reason to believe he won’t be the same in 2018 if his fingers allow it.
It’s far from time to pack up and start over for the Blue Jays, but 2018 will be a year that defines the direction of the franchise going forward. The current roster is on its last legs, but help is on the way in the form of Vladimir Guerrero Jr and Bo Bichette, two elite prospects. There’s still no reason the core that helped usher winning baseball back into Canada can’t go on one last big run together.
Best Case Scenario
Losing MVP Josh Donaldson for nearly 50 games last year was a blow too great for the Blue Jays to overcome. When he was healthy, the third baseman was still a force, hitting 33 home runs in 113 games. In and of itself, not losing Donaldson for two months of the year is probably enough to get the Jays back to .500.
Devon Travis is the second key cog that must give the Blue Jays a full healthy season. The 27-year-old has seen his last two seasons derailed by all sorts of injuries, but is a career .292/.331/.462 hitter in the big leagues. He is the sparkplug the lineup needs at the top. In the best-case scenario, the Jays unlock Randal Grichuk’s considerable potential and turn him into a 20-20 threat, while running a solid platoon in left field with Curtis Granderson and Steve Pearce.
It will all come down to keeping Aaron Sanchez and Marcus Stroman healthy for the Blue Jays. Both right-handers throw the types of heavy sinkers that combat the new hitting approach focused on launch angle that most MLB hitters are deploying today. Sanchez and Stroman both have 15-20 win potential.
Toronto can challenge New York and Boston in the AL East, and will be one of the two Wild Cards left standing at the end of the year if everything breaks their way.
Worst Case Scenario
Injuries are a constant threat to any team that leans heavily on players over the age of 30. Donaldson has never had a history of injuries, but he is now in his age-32 season and has played a hard seven years in the big leagues and spent five years catching in the minor leagues. It’s just a matter of time before he tweaks a muscle and spends two weeks on the disabled list.
For the Jays, betting that they will be the team to take Grichuk to the next level after the Cardinals failed, comes with long odds. The 26-year-old is coming off two poor seasons in a row and has poor plate discipline and contact skills. Over in left field, Curtis Granderson continues declining and does not even match Jose Bautista’s production from last season.
On the mound, Marco Estrada and J.A. Happ fail to continue defying the odds and regress to the mean. Even if Sanchez and Stroman make over 30 starts, seeing their three and four struggle would sink the Blue Jays. The bullpen has the potential to be even worse, with a collection of reclamation projects.
With things starting to spiral out of control, the Blue Jays shop Donaldson on the trade market in July and pull the plug on 2018. That won’t be all bad, as it will allow a few prospects to begin injecting life into an aging roster.
Prediction
The Blue Jays did not do enough to upgrade their flagging offense, but the lineup is slightly better than it was last year simply due to the fact that Donaldson is not starting the year with a nagging calf injury. Toronto will avoid last year’s slow start and keep themselves at or slightly above .500 long enough to avoid having to entertain the idea of trading their star third baseman. Unfortunately, the Jays just run out of gas in the second half and finish in fourth place in the division.