The Boston Red Sox are set to rebound from a season-long power outage and look to win a third AL East title in a row.
For the first time in franchise history, the Boston Red Sox enter a season looking to win their third division title in a row. It won’t be easy, especially with the hated New York Yankees loaded with star power, but the Red Sox made upgrades of their own this winter and look to bring their offense back up to the high-octane levels of the 2016 team led by David Ortiz.
Replacing Big Papi was never going to be an easy task for the Red Sox, and the lineup felt his absence in a major way last season. Boston led the American League in runs, batting average and OPS in 2016, but could not muster much pop without the presence of Ortiz in the middle. Across the board, the Red Sox saw their young players’ numbers tumble.
Growing pains are natural with a core of players under the age of 30, but the struggles of Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaers and Jackie Bradley Jr. were not expected. The core group seemed to have turned a corner the year before, with Betts nearly winning the MVP.
For most of the offseason, the Red Sox loomed as the most obvious landing spot for free-agent slugger J.D. Martinez. It took a few more weeks than most Boston fans would have liked, but a deal was finally worked out. The addition of Martinez should go a long way to replacing Ortiz and helping flip the power back on in Beantown.
The starting rotation, led by Chris Sale, did their part to carry the team last season, and all key members of the staff return in 2018. Minor injuries will keep a few members of the rotation out for a week or two in April, but the group should be one of the best in the league when it’s all said and done.
Even with the Yankees adding Giancarlo Stanton, the Red Sox may have the more complete unit thanks to their superior rotation. Two straight early exits in the ALDS led to the replacement of manager John Farrell with Alex Cora, but the Red Sox are still in good hands. With a more potent lineup, a deeper playoff run should follow.
Best Cast Scenario
This is a team that won 93 games and a division title last year while hitting the fewest home runs in the American League and posting the second-worst slugging percentage. Even with the power numbers way down, the Red Sox still managed to finish sixth in the league in runs thanks to their ability to put the ball in play and draw walks. This lineup will be deadly again with J.D. Martinez in the middle serving as protection for Mookie Betts and Hanley Ramirez, who were both at their best in 2016 hitting around David Ortiz.
It was the pitching that propelled the Red Sox to their second AL East title in a row, and the entire rotation returns, including a seemingly healthy David Price backing up Chris Sale at the top. The injuries that will start Drew Pomeranz and Eduardo Rodriguez on the DL appear minor for now, and both should be back by the end of April. There are enough early off days that their time on the DL will have minimal impact on the team’s hopes.
With Martinez providing the extra thump in the middle of the lineup, the Red Sox once again look like the team that led the AL in runs scored in 2016. This time around, though, the rotation is a force to be reckoned with as well. Boston is a legitimate World Series contender and holds off the Yankees for one more year.
Worst Case Scenario
The Red Sox are already starting the season with three likely members of their starting rotation on the disabled list in Drew Pomeranz, Eduardo Rodriguez and Steven Wright (who will also have to serve a 15-game suspension for domestic violence when he is activated, effectively putting him out at least a month). Pomeranz made only one start in Spring Training before coming down with a flexor mass strain. Rodriguez is dealing with knee issues for the second year in a row and made only 24 starts last year.
Starting the year with three pitchers on the DL is already not great, but there’s the continued concern over the health of David Price’s elbow to worry about. The left-hander logged only 74.2 innings last year and did not pitch much in Spring Training. Another injury to Price, or a setback to Pomeranz, Rodriguez or Wright would leave the Red Sox with an extremely thin rotation. Mix in a thin bullpen behind Craig Kimbrel, and the potential is there for an ugly season on the mound in Boston.
The addition of J.D. Martinez should be enough to jumpstart last year’s sputtering offense, but he has only played 239 games over the past two seasons. Putting away his outfielder’s glove should allow Martinez to avoid injury. The Red Sox should be fine offensively after last year’s hiccup, but the pitching staff looks like a potential house of cards. One or two minor injuries could send them falling out of playoff contention.
Team MVP
Mookie Betts — RF
Mookie Betts was not just Boston’s team MVP in 2016, he finished second in the AL vote and won a Gold Glove and Silver Slugger. It appeared as though Betts was gearing up to make a run at Mike Trout for the title of best overall player in the league. Instead, the 25-year-old saw his OPS plummet 94 points. Betts was a victim of the teamwide drop in power after Big Papi’s retirement.
The arrow is still pointed all the way up for Betts’ career — heck, he still managed to finish sixth in the AL MVP voting with a subpar year — and he will bounce back with the added protection that J.D. Martinez brings to the lineup. Pencil Betts in for 30 homers and 30 steals. His stellar defense in right field makes him a five-tool threat, and another top finish in the league MVP vote follows.
Prediction
The Red Sox aren’t able to hold off the Yankees, but they do win the AL’s top Wild Card and host the play-in game at Fenway Park. J.D. Martinez is able to avoid the minor injuries that have kept him off the field the past two years and turns in a 45-homer season. Mookie Betts goes for 30-30 and Hanley Ramirez is in a good mood all year.
Boston will roll right through the AL Wild Card Game, but unfortunately, their run of losses in the ALDS reaches three in a row. They are just a notch below the best teams in the American League.