Melvin Frazier is a ball of role player clay

Melvin Frazier of Tulane declared for the 2018 NBA Draft yesterday, a move which may be surprising to some, but was expected by those who have followed the Green Wave forward this season. Frazier was an afterthought heading into the year — a competent starter on an AAC team that went 6-25 last season — but quickly established himself as one of the most improved players in college basketball, taking over as Tulane’s best player while helping the team improve by eight wins. In doing so, Frazier began showing some traits that could be projected to an NBA role, and even better, still showed some untapped potential which could raise his ceiling even higher.

Frazier appears to have been a late-bloomer physically, and that really started to manifest this season. A cursory look at his high school tape shows a rail-thin athlete, who didn’t have much to offer outside of his vertical athleticism. The 6-foot-6 junior has filled out his frame now, which enabled him to grow into a more well-rounded player on both ends. He also hasn’t lost that vertical pop, which is a nice starting point to his NBA potential. It allows him to be a good transition and slashing weapon, which definitely puts him on the map.

Frazier’s frame improvement is most notable on the defensive end, where he truly blossomed this year as a perimeter defender, and brings the most potential value at the NBA level. Frazier already has the length with a reportedly 7-foot-2 wingspan, and as he’s matured, he’s turned into a pretty decent shot-blocker and rebounder.

He slides well and navigates screens with good discipline, and he’s incredibly disruptive, generating a 3.5 percent steal rate and consistently finding ways to generate turnovers on the defensive end.

However, while the defensive improvements are the real value for Frazier, his most impressive improvement came from 3-point range. Frazier shot 26.4 percent from 3 last season on 106 attempts, but through improvement in his release motion, he finished at 38.5 percent this season on 91 attempts. Nearly all of those attempts came off catch-and-shoot looks, per Hoop-Math, and most importantly, he shot 41.7 percent on 48 NBA-range 3s, per Will Schreefer’s shot chart data. His shooting motion isn’t aesthetically pleasing, but he’s fairly fluid, and comfortable shooting under pressure.

The beginnings of a 3-and-D skill set are here, and while the sample size of Frazier’s improvement isn’t large, he has displayed enough skills to build off of at the NBA level. If he can prove in workouts his shooting is consistent, he will get drafted around the late-1st or early 2nd round, simply because of the value he could bring as a relatively cheap 3-and-D wing. He’ll almost certainly take a reduced role in the NBA, and that may work to his benefit, as he often looked miscast as the number one option for Tulane.

More exciting, though, is Frazier has shown several additional skills that look ready to be developed. Some will unlock additional value at the NBA level, while others are more pertinent to build upon, to make sure he can stay on the floor. The most immediate need of the latter is in off-ball defense, where his footwork is relatively poor. Frazier has the length to stay in front of college guards with relative ease — but in closeout and one-on-one situations, he is very twitchy, and his overactive feet can put him in bad situations where an NBA guard is going to just blow by him. For example, Frazier gets credit for the steal here, but stood no chance of containing Joel Berry because of his poor closeout.

His choppy steps and overactive feet on the defensive end are problematic, and he almost appears sped up in off-ball situations, panicking when he has to transition from defending off-ball actions to defending when the opponent has an advantage. His length helps him compensate, but this type of defense won’t work consistently at the next level.

A similar problem affects him on closeouts, where he consistently is just a half-step slow reading and reacting to the action. Again, he gets the block here, but he’s ripe for getting attacked on closeouts because he’s slow to react.

Frazier has several positive defensive attributes, but this is a fairly big impediment to consistent value from him on this end. He’ll need significant coaching on discipline and footwork to achieve his defensive ceiling.

His offensive ceiling hinges on the development of his jumper’s consistency and his self-creation ability. Frazier’s mechanics are fairly fluid, but his previous struggles stem from his release, which still needs work. He uses his wrist a little too much when shooting, and while that’s been improving, it can still be seen in his free throw attempts.

While his improved numbers are nice, more data is needed to really prove his shooting is for real, and not just an outlier season. The NBA 3-point range is promising, but he did shoot just 5-of-18 from the right side of the floor, and 33 percent on long 2s. With such a marked improvement on a low number of attempts, Frazier still has the burden of proof to be considered a strong shooting prospect.

The on-ball creation abilities he’s shown this year are much more promising, and they extend his ceiling upward, even if the jump shot doesn’t continue progressing. Frazier’s improvement as a driver this year with stark — he has developed his left hand significantly, and now appears to be capable of attacking the rim with either hand.

His touch at the rim is also promising — he finished as an 85th percentile shooter at the rim per Schreefer, and he uses his athleticism and his fluid movement to overcome his lack of high-level strength. He struggles with contact still, but soft finishes like this one, especially out of the pick-and-roll, give hope to some further self-creation exploration.

Helping that hope is his handle, which has been improving rapidly as well. Frazier doesn’t attempt to go one-on-one often, but he got more chances out of the pick-and-roll or on secondary actions as the season went on, and there were some intriguing results.

He still struggles with pressure, though, and the looseness of his handle is the biggest impediment to making full use of that creation ability.

Melvin Frazier has gotten some push as a potential first-round prospect because of the potential value he can bring at the next level. His size for his position and the array of potentially valuable skills he could bring make him a decent investment for a patient team willing to explore what he can do offensively. However, he’s still very raw at 21-years old, and that likely limits his ceiling despite the flashes he’s shown.

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He is testing the waters and looking for feedback, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him return to school. He’s likely going to need significant tutelage in the G League to harness his capabilities, as he tries to iron out his shot, continue to improve as a driver and gets his footwork sorted out defensively. However, if a team is willing to put in the time and resources to work with him in this way, he could easily be a valuable role player that can be stolen as a projected late-first or early-second round pick.