After a 102-win season that included a 22-game win streak, the Indians are ousted from the postseason by the Yankees, falling short of their goal once again.
This seasons, the Indians have the same mindset and goals, they just need “finish the job” according to superstar shortstop Francisco Lindor. For a team whose season has ended in the World Series and ALCS the last two years, the Indians are not assuming anything. In terms of additions, Cleveland didn’t make any major moves, adding Yonder Alonso on a two-year deal to replace Carlos Santana at 1B and bringing back 2016 World Series Game 7 hero Rajai Davis back on a cheap one-year deal.
However, the team will be relying on the duo of Lindor and 3B Jose Ramirez to the majority of the heavy lifting on offense. With veteran big bat Edwin Encarnacion and his parrot protecting the young sluggers in Cleveland’s lineup, the Indians will once again be a top 10 offense. Parring the offense with what might be one of the best rotations and bullpens in baseball, the Indians are true contenders once again in 2018.
The rotation is led by the reigning two-time Cy Young winner Corey Kluber, who continues to post elite-level seasons of 200+ innings and an average strikeout per nine innings of 10.3%. Kluber will be followed by Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer, Josh Tomlin, and Mike Clevinger with Danny Salazar close to being back. Combine their starters with an incredibly deep bullpen featuring proven arms like lefty Andrew Miller and Cody Allen – who saved 30 games last year. Miller and Allen are supplemented by power arms like Nick Goody and Tyler Olson with veterans Dan Otero and Zach McAllister in tow as well.
Best Case Scenario
The Indians are putting the pressure on themselves to winning it all in 2018, and rightfully so. They are in their peak years of contention, their top prospects are either play in the major leagues or are close to helping their club soon, the Indians know they need to take advantage of the moment now.
With Kluber as the team’s ace, the Indians perennial all-star pitcher who should once again be in the Cy Young conversation. The offense should be able to pick up where it left off last year, despite losing long-time catcher/1B Carlos Santana and OF Jay Bruce, who was acquired at the deadline last year. Even if the offense takes a step back, the Indians have enough on pitching alone to make a serious run in 2018. Kipnis reverts back to the near 5 WAR player he was in ’15 & ’16 and a healthy Michael Brantley, the Indians are a team nobody wants to meet in the postseason.
The Indians should win the division relatively easily but will likely still have to face one of the Yankees, Red Sox, in the first round. Their starting pitching should be better than most in the AL, and with Terry Francona’s aggressive bullpen usage, the Indians will shorten games for starters and force batters to perform against the likes of Miller and Allen.
Worst Case Scenario
The two things that could ruin the Indians chances in 2018 are a lack of offensive production or a less effective bullpen. Their offense essentially stays the same, with Alonso replacing Santana and his on-base ability, but are relying more so on their young stars in Lindor and Ramirez. But if either of those two were to have a slow start or suffer an injury, the Indians don’t have the depth to survive a blow like that. They are also counting on some production from oft-injured players in Jason Kipnis and Michael Brantley – both spent time on the DL last year.
If Kipnis and Brantley put up subpar seasons or can’t stay healthy, Cleveland might need to look towards the farm system for either a trade piece or for a potential replacement for either. Right now, the Indians do have two of the top 25 prospects in baseball, according to MLB Pipeline, but beyond them, the minors don’t have many elite prospects to flip.
Their bullpen, while anchored by Miller and Allen, lost Bryan Shaw and Joe Smith this off-season. So the Indians are relying on some of their younger arms who extremely talented, but have little to no MLB experience. It’s not hard to envision the young guys struggling through the year as they grow accustomed to their more integral bullpen roles.
Team MVP
Jose Ramirez – 3B
The easy pick is Francisco Lindor, who could easily take home the AL MVP award if the Indians can win it all in 2018. But Jose Ramirez and his power numbers exploded last season, jumping from 11 to 29 home runs, finishing with a 6.6 WAR in 2017. Ramirez adding the power to his to already elite contact numbers makes him the most dangerous hitters in the Indians lineup. He can take you deep or he can continue to spoil pitches until he gets what he’s looking for at the plate. He’s a tough out and threat to go deep in any count, but with Encarnacion behind him, pitchers will be forced to throw to him. I already feel sorry for the 30+ baseballs he clubs over the fence.
Prediction
The Indians are one of the few teams in baseball who have a legitimate shot at winning it all in 2018, with a pitching rotation that will be tough to beat and an offense with serious upside, the Indians should push for a title once again. Their biggest question mark will be whether or not they can continue to score close to five runs again, and if they can’t, can Kluber and the rotation hold teams below five runs again? The odds favor the Indians on both counts.