Kansas City put together two consecutive seasons of reaching the World Series, winning one in 2015 after a 20-year championship drought, but now look to rebuild for the future.
The Royals teetered between rebuilding or retooling, staying in contract talks with All-Star 1B Eric Hosmer until he decided to sign with the Padres this off-season. They did retain 29-year-old Mike Moustakas, agreeing to a 1-year deal worth $6.5 million along with veteran shortstop Alcides Escobar on another one-year deal for $2.5 million.
They took some chances on few players who, if they perform in 2018, will likely finish the season playing for a different club. Two starters in former Brewers ace Wily Peralta and former Red Sox all-star Clay Bucholz, as well as 1B/DH Lucas Duda and OF Jon Jay, as the Royals are hoping the trio can turn into trade chips or at the very least, league average players.
Of course, they still have one of the game’s best catchers in Salvador Perez, who looks like the lone All-Star caliber player still left on this roster. OF Whit Merrifield could be an ideal leadoff candidate if he can improve upon his .324 on-base percentage, and should lead the team in runs and steals in 2018. The 10-year vet Alex Gordon will attempt to resurrect his career, but the now 34-year-old outfielder figures to put up numbers closer to last year than what he did in his 2014 6.4 WAR season.
The rotation is led by Danny Duffy, who hasn’t pitched more than 179.2 innings in a season mainly due to injuries, and after him, the rotation is essentially a bunch of reclamation projects. Ian Kennedy, Jason Hamel, Nathan Karns, Jakob Junis, and Eric Skoglund make up the rotation for now, as veteran Clay Bucholz works his way back to the majors. Outside of Junis and Skoglund, none of these pitchers will be on this team when they are competitive again.
Best Case Scenario
The Royals are going to be bad, but aren’t one of the worst teams in baseball. If players like Perez, Mousakas, and Merrifield can perform to their highest level and a guy like OF Jorge Soler, who was the big trade piece in the Wade Davis deal with the Cubs, continues putting numbers like he is this spring (.902 OPS with 6 home runs) their offense could be ok.
However, their pitching does not have that much promise. Danny Duffy, if he remains healthy, is best suited as a trade piece at this point for the Royals. Duffy was able to post a sub-four ERA and FIP last season, and if healthy, should replicate those numbers. But the rest of the staff isn’t going to do much to help win them games. The bullpen had some pieces like former Cub Justin Grimm and Kelvin Herrera, but both look like their best days are behind them. Peralta has had an awful spring, struggling to locate his pitches and control, as has become the norm for him. Maybe Bucholz finds himself once again and can prove useful this season.
Best case, this team competes for a bit and the front office sells any pieces that have aged themselves out of Kansas City or would bring back a massive haul of prospects. The remnants are there from KC’s 2015 World Series team and that might be enough to attract their loyal fans, but it won’t translate to wins.
Worst Case Scenario
At this point, the Royals’ biggest fear would be an injury to a player like Danny Duffy or Mike Moustakas, who both could potentially hold trade value later this summer. If they lose one of their trade chips, it might force the team to consider moving a player like Perez, something they should probably consider anyways but won’t initially.
The gamble on a player like Clay Bucholz could end up hurting the Royals, especially if Bucholz doesn’t get healthy in time for his required May 1st. If the 33-year-old veteran never made it to the Royals big-league club, it’s another potential trade chip down the drain.
But even with all that, the Royals being bad does help the club in the long term, but short term the team loses a money in ticket sales. Small market teams rely heavily on the influx of cash they receive from concessions, merchandise, liquor etc. If the team is bad like it is expected to be, the ticket prices might have to come crashing down to keep the seats filled. Never a good thing for a team, but a necessity for most small market teams.
Team MVP
Salvador Perez
Despite clubbing 27 home runs last year, ‘Salvy’ only registered a 2.1 WAR for 2017. However, Perez did have the best wRC+ over the last four seasons at 103, as nobody besides him, Hosmer, Merrifield, or Moustakas drove more than 54 runs in last season. Perez also proves so much stability behind the plate, and for a team that doesn’t have much behind its ace in Duffy, having an experienced backstop can help make up for other shortcomings the staff may have. But to be perfectly honest, unless somebody has a breakout season for the Royals, Perez very well could end up being the teams All-Star by default.
Predictions
The Royals will be towards the bottom of the league, but likely won’t be bad enough to truly benefit from it. If the Royals truly want to rebuild, they should consider accelerating the process and move as many pieces as possible to revamp the farm system. Sadly, ownership knows how nostalgic their fans are of their players, and very well could hold onto to certain players to ensure people stay somewhat interested in the club. Either way, Royals lose a lot of games, but won’t be a bottom five team in the league.