DraftKings NBA Picks March 30: KAT, A.D., or LBJ?

There are nine games on our NBA Friday. Some big names are in action tonight, but where is the value to play them? Is Lillard going to go off in his first game as a father? Let’s check out some story lines and bargain plays.

Point Guards:

Best Bets:

Russell Westbrook ($11,300): Westbrook has a great matchup against Denver here, a team that he has averaged 56.4 DraftKings points per game against this season. Expect Westbrook to be on track tonight as the team jockeys for playoff seeding after a down game in the loss to the Spurs last night.

Damian Lillard ($9,600): Lillard was a beast with 70.75 DraftKings points against the Pelicans before heading home for the birth of his child. A somewhat rested, but very proud Lillard returns to the court tonight in a favorable matchup against the Clippers.

Ben Simmons ($9,400): Simmons put up 52.25 DraftKings points in the first meeting against the Hawks this season. With Embiid out again, Simmons is going to be leaned on a little more. Simmons has produced everywhere but points lately. We may even see a few more triple doubles now!

Honorable Mention:

Eric Bledsoe ($7,200): Bledsoe is about as consistent as you can get at the point. He is a good facilitator for the Bucks, but his upside is capped due to the wealth of talent around him. Still, the middle tier is loaded with bad matchups and inconsistency. Bledsoe has neither of those.

Ricky Rubio ($6,700): Rubio gets a Memphis team that doesn’t have Tyreke Evans to defend him. Rubio was two rebounds short of a triple double against Boston on Tuesday. Rubio could put up big number against Memphis unless this turns into a blowout.

Dennis Smith Jr. ($6,500): This is a tougher sell despite the great matchup against Minnesota. Smith has played 25 minutes or less in three of the last four games. He still hit at least 28 DraftKings points in each of them. If he plays 30 minutes against Minnesota, look out.

Dark Horses:

Isaiah Taylor ($4,800): The Hawks have no reason to rush Schroder back, so expect Taylor to make another start. In the last three games Taylor has started, he has at least 30 DraftKings points. I don’t care if he is playing the Sixers. Taylor will still hit 5x value without a problem.

Tyler Ulis ($4,700): Ulis has regained the starting point guard job in Phoenix. Ulis has 70.5 DraftKings points over the last two games. Elfrid who?

Markelle Fultz ($4,100): Fultz has amassed a 15-1 assist to turnover ratio in just 28 minutes since his return. Despite Fultz playing hardly any minutes, he has picked up 50.25 DraftKings points in two games. His upside is capped, but Fultz is a very strong value play at this price.

My pick: Taylor(PG), Ulis(G), Fultz(UTIL)

Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

James Harden ($11,500): Harden is well rested, and that’s not a good thing for the Suns. Harden has 125 DraftKings points in just two games against them this season. There is blowout potential here, but if Chris Paul is out (likely), Harden could throw up a 60 in 30 minutes against this team. There is still some potential here.

Jrue Holiday ($8,200): Holiday torched the Cavs for 48 DraftKings points in the first meeting. The Cavs aren’t any better on the perimeter than they were then. Look for another strong game from Holiday. He could be a safer play than Harden because this game shouldn’t be a blowout.

Honorable Mention:

Khris Middleton ($7,900): Middleton has been a very consistent producer as well. His consistency makes Middleton a superb play in cash games. There is solid GPP potential for him tonight as well against the Lakers.

Donovan Mitchell ($7,500): The Grizzlies are terrible guarding the two guard, and Mitchell takes a whole lot of shots. Expect Mitchell to hit value here. For some reason, the Grizzlies are beating playoff bound teams now. Maybe they are looking for lottery karma. Can the Grizzlies poach the Jazz like they did Minnesota and Portland?

Will Barton ($6,800): Barton couldn’t buy a shot against Toronto. Just chalk that up to a bad game and move on. There is solid potential here against the Thunder. Barton has been very good with Gary Harris out. He may have to shoulder a little more of the load with Jamal Murray having a very tough matchup here.

Dark Horses:

Austin Rivers ($6,000): Rivers put up some really good numbers with MIlos Teodosic out. More foot problems are nagging Teodosic now, which means more run as the point guard for Rivers. That’s where the value comes from. Rivers had eight assists on Wednesday. Look for more of this as long as Teodosic remains sidelined.

Shelvin Mack ($4,600): Augustin has put up some really inconsistent stat lines. He got close to a triple double, then followed that up with less points than Mack. Meanwhile, Mack has 22 or more DraftKings points in six straight games. Mack is a solid value play with the Magic backcourt still beaten up.

Shaquille Harrison ($3,600): Harrison get some playing time on Wednesday, and turned that into 33 DraftKings points. There is huge risk here with the whole Suns rotation in flux, but the Suns have nothing to lose by playing the youngsters. For that reason, we could see some nice run from Harrison over the next couple of weeks.

My pick: Mack(SG)

Small Forwards:

Best Bets:

Paul George ($8,100): George has a nice 41.1 DraftKings points per game average in three meeting with Denver so far this year. George was the one that kept the Thunder in the game against the Spurs, going off for 51.75 DraftKings points. They will likely need George here as well.

Josh Jackson ($7,400): Jackson has been outstanding filling in for T.J. Warren. I am a little concerned about the return of Booker sapping some of the scoring from Jackson. That would be bad since he is so reliant on his scoring to hit value. Stay tuned in to news about Booker throughout the day and be willing to adjust accordingly.

Honorable Mention:

Taurean Prince ($7,300): Prince was huge in his only game against the Sixers this year, racking up 44.75 DraftKings points in that one. Prince is back on track after a brief two game lull. There is a lot of potential attached to Prince lately. Can he do it to the Sixers again?

Al-Farouq Aminu ($6,200): Aminu has taken it to the Clippers this year. Aminu carries at 37.2 DraftKings points per game average through three games with the Clippers this year. We have seen some down games from Aminu this year, but he matches up well with the Clippers. Expect Aminu to get back on track here.

Robert Covington ($5,900): Covington put up 36.25 DraftKings points in the first meeting with Atlanta. Covington has put a rough February behind him, and is producing like he did last year and earlier this year. He continues to be a very good value source, and has nice upside against Atlanta tonight.

Dark Horses:

Mario Hezonja ($5,600): Jonathan Isaac is out again, and Hezonja is starting with Fournier and Simmons still out. Hezonja has put up 79.75 DraftKings points over the last two games. In fact, Hezonja may even be doing better than when he filled in for Aaron Gordon. he should be in for a big night against the Bulls.

Jabari Parker ($4,900): Parker got back on track against the Warriors on Wednesday. It’s tough to count on Parker since he is still on a pretty strict minutes limit. However, there is decent value here when the matchup is right. It is against the Lakers tonight.

My pick: Covington(SF)

Power Forwards:

Best Bets:

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,800): Giannis roughed up the Lakers for 60.25 DraftKings points in the first meeting. There is good potential here once again. With so many places to spend, where is the best? I would say most will be on A.D. or Harden, which could make Giannis a sneaky pivot play.

Julius Randle (8,600): Denver is the only team to hold Randle under 35 DraftKings points in March. You know that Milwaukee wont be able to hold him here. Randle is one of the most consistent power forwards out there right now.

Honorable Mention:

Tobias Harris ($7,400): It’s really hard to trust Aaron Gordon. He has been unable to find any consistency since his return, so I will most over to Harris. Harris has hit 5x value in four of the last five games. He should do the same against Portland tonight.

Dario Saric ($6,800): Saric was a monster with Embiid out on Wednesday. He put up 56.5 DraftKings points as the Knicks were powerless to stop him. Look for Saric to pick up a lot of the scoring load with Embiid out for a while. That makes him a huge DFS value right now.

Dark Horses:

Lauri Markkanen ($5,400): Markkanen should be back after resting on Wednesday. Bobby Portis could still be worth a look at a fair price, but I’m liking Markkanen for $400 less. Orlando isn’t that strong in the frontcourt, so there is potential here.

Richaun Holmes ($4,200): Holmes picked up 25.25 DraftKings points in 22 minutes after Embiid went down against the Knicks. Holmes likely wont start, but he seems to be more productive off the bench anyway. That makes him a great value play tonight.

My pick: Holmes(F)

Center:

Best Bets:

Anthony Davis ($11,600): I’m not a big fan of LeBron against the Pelicans. The King only put up 32 DraftKings points in the first meeting with New Orleans. I am more comfortable using Davis, who torched the Cavs for 61 DSraftKings points in the first meeting. The Pelicans are still fighting for their playoff lives, so expect Davis to have to come up big for them again.

Karl-Anthony Towns ($10,100): What was I saying about inconsistency and Towns? Yeah, he showed that in spades with a 86.25 DraftKings point outburst against the Hawks on Wednesday. That will make Towns a very popular pick tonight against a similarly undersized Dallas team. I still don’t know that I trust him though.

Honorable Mention:

DeAndre Jordan ($8,300): Jordan has put up back to back 40+ DraftKings point games lately. That could continue against Portland. Jordan’s production has dipped a little with Harris on a roll, but not to the point where I would consider not using him in a favorable matchup.

Nikola Vucevic ($8,100): Vucevic has had back to back games of more than 45 DraftKings points against two suspect interior defenses. He gets a third tonight in the Bulls. Chicago has been knocked around by centers at times this year. This is another strong place for Vucevic. Can he keep it going?

Clint Capela ($6,900): We saw Vucevic take apart the Suns on the interior earlier this week. Capela could do the same so long as this game doesn’t get out of hand. The Rockets have already locked up the one seed. They have no reason to push anyone right now, so that leaves added risk for Capela.

Dark Horses:

Jusuf Nurkic ($6,500): Wow, who would have thought that if you gave Nurkic more minutes again that he would be productive? I wonder if the Blazers are taking notes here. They are a better team when Nurkic plays more than 30 minutes. When Nurkic does that, he is 5x value at a minimum. I dont’t fully trust Brook Lopez, but if you do, he has a great matchup with the Bucks.

My pick: Towns(C), Davis(PF)

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