NCAA Final Four 2018: Michigan Preview

Between last year’s Big 10 tournament and this year’s run in March it should become fairly evident that you should not bet against Michigan in the postseason.

Last season, the Michigan Wolverines used a magical run to win the Big 10 Tournament, but were bounced by Oregon in the Sweet 16. This season they’ve been able to ride this momentum all the way to the Final Four, and there hasn’t been a lack of dramatics on the way there either.

Michigan has struggled offensively in the tournament with the exception of their game against Texas A&M. During the season Michigan averaged 1.08 points per possession which isn’t bad at all, but during the tournament, including the game against the Aggies, they’re averaging 0.907 points per possession, which is very unlike them.

Michigan has really gotten to this point in the Tournament thanks to their defense. Only one opponent they’ve faced so far has scored more than 63 points, and that was Texas A&M. Florida State averaged over 80 points per game this season, and Michigan held them to 54 points.

Now they’ll face a team in Loyola-Chicago that’s equally as good on the defensive end. If you like offensive shows then this might not be the game for you.

Player to watch

The player to watch for Michigan is obviously Moritz Wagner. The guy is just pure energy whenever he’s on the floor. Not only does he provide a boost for Michigan, but he’s a match-up nightmare when he has his A-game going.

Wagner averaged 14 points and 7 rebounds on the season, but does his best work when he’s able to knock down the long ball. He’s shooting almost 40 percent from 3 this season, and his eFG percentage is a healthy 60 percent.

All of this really spells bad news for Loyola because they don’t really have anybody that can guard Wagner. Loyola dominated the paint in the Elite Eight matchup against Kansas State, but it wasn’t because they had a dominant big man. They really just used dribble drives and the occasional post bucket from freshman center Cameron Krutwig.

That’s probably not going to cut it against a talent like Wagner. Look for Michigan to try and take full advantage of the mismatch with Wagner and whoever has the privilege of guarding him on Saturday.

Strengths

Michigan’s biggest strength is their defense. Loyola is ranked fourth in the country, only giving up 62 points per game, but right behind them is Michigan, only giving up 63.1 points per game — and they’re 14th in defensive efficiency.

On the season Michigan is 7-3 when scoring less than a point per possession on offense. In the previous 10 seasons they were 12-84. That means even if Michigan can’t get it done on the offensive end they can still win games with their defense.

It’s a definite added benefit for a team that is still capable of putting up points in a hurry. Michigan held Florida State to 0.844 points per possession which was by far FSU’s worst offensive performance of the season.

Michigan is going to ride their defense to a possible victory on Saturday just like they have all tournament long. Add in the fact that they only turn the ball over nine times a game, and it should be a fairly clean game. Michigan isn’t going to shoot themselves in the foot and neither is Loyola. It might just be a case of who’s going to make the big mistake first.

Weaknesses

Michigan doesn’t really have a ton of weaknesses. They play outstanding defense, and they’re more than capable of putting up points on offense.  Florida State is another great defensive team, but Michigan got easy looks and just couldn’t knock shots down, especially down the stretch. Overall, they only shot 38 percent from the floor and an abysmal 18 percent from 3-point range.

It’s pretty much been the same story all tournament long minus the Texas A&M game. In fact, their shooting struggles almost cost them the game against Houston. Thankfully, Jordan Poole managed to save them, but they couldn’t buy a bucket down the stretch.

This team is also pretty awful from the free throw line. They only shoot 66 percent from the free throw line, and as we all know free throw shooting could ruin everything for you.

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Biggest key to victory over Loyola-Chicago

If Michigan wants to beat Loyola they just need to do what they’ve done the entire tournament — play good defense, and don’t turn the ball over. Both of those things are staples of what they’ve done, not only during the tournament but all season long as well.

Michigan cannot become turnover prone in this game. They have to take care of the ball, because even though Loyola isn’t the most potent offense they can turn turnovers into points. As long as Michigan takes care of the ball they’ll be there at the end of this game.

They’ll also need to take advantage of the mismatch that Moritz Wagner has against Loyola. Michigan’s offense should run through Wagner on Saturday. If they can do those things then they’ll have a chance to play for the National Championship.