DraftKings Early NBA Picks March 31: Build around Drummond

There are two early games on Final Four Saturday. We have three night games, so it’s pretty light night in the NBA so some GM’s can tune in to check out players they can draft next year. Of the four team in action this afternoon, only the Knicks have no shot at the playoffs. The Hornets and Pistons need a lot of help, but they aren’t out of it yet. That should mean a pretty straight-forward tournament since we don’t have any tankers besides the Knicks, but they have been that way for a while. We are used to it by now.

Point Guards:

Best Bets:

Kemba Walker ($8,500): I don’t think Kemba hits value today, but he is also one of the few that should be around 40. Walker has averaged 38.3 DraftKings points in three games with the Wizards. The real story here is the return of Wall, which will do nothing but destroy the value of all Washington point guards.

Trey Burke ($6,200): From the scrap heap to starting point guard for the Knicks. It’s been a wild ride for Burke this year. Burke has at least 25 DraftKings points in seven of the last eight games. He has gone over 30 in four straight and five total over that span. I see no reason not to play him right now. You know the potential is there after what he did to Charlotte on Monday.

Honorable Mention:

John Wall ($7,400): How brave are you? The Wizards still have Wall listed as questionable, but considering he was in uniform on Thursday, most think that he will play. More than likely, Wall will have a minutes limit. I would say it will be somewhere around 20. So the question is can Wall put up 37 DraftKings points in limited minutes? I highly doubt it.

Reggie Jackson ($5,500): Jackson’s minutes appear to be capped around the 28 mark. However, with his price this manageable, Jackson will still hit 5x value more often than not. This is a good matchup against the Knicks, so Jackson is a solid value pick on a short slate.

Dark Horse:

Emmanuel Mudiay ($4,300): Burke is still putting up those numbers with Mudiay playing half the game. The Knicks are going to have to decide between the two of them sooner or later, but as the season winds down, expect the minutes allocation to remain where they have been for the last couple of weeks. I do like Mudiay as a value play here.

My pick: Walker(PG)

Best Bet:

Bradley Beal ($7,900): Beal has averaged 41.1 DraftKings points in three games against Charlotte this year. That would put him a shade over 5x value. However, that is an optimistic goal. Beal hasn’t even cracked the 30 DraftKings point mark since the 23rd. Beal hasn’t hit 5x value, even at this price, since March 14th. Beal has gone cold. That price makes it tempting, but the risk here is pretty big, especially with Wall’s return looming.

Honorable Mention:

Kelly Oubre ($5,600): I literally hate every mid range option here. Batum is still on a minutes limit. Hardaway is very inconsistent right now. Even Oubre has substantial risk if Wall returns. If Wall it out, I love Oubre to keep doing what he’s doing. Oubre has five straight games of more than 5x value, even at this price. If Wall is out, Oubre is easily the best option here.

Reggie Bullock ($5,000): Bullock continues to be a solid producer for Detroit, even though there are times when he does nothing but score. He is one of the few outside options for the Pistons right now, so I don’t see his role decreasing before the end of the year.

Dark Horse:

Luke Kennard ($4,500): The Pistons seem to have Kennard in their long term plans, so they have been giving him decent run down the stretch. Kennard is mostly a shooter, and that is reflected by his volatility in fantasy output. As long as Detroit keeps playing him around half the game, he has a puncher’s chance at hitting value.

My pick: Oubre(SG)

Small Forwards:

Best Bets:

Otto Porter ($6,600): There are a lot of things to watch from the Washington side of things tonight. First the status of Wall. If he plays, I like everyone else a little less, mostly Porter, who has shouldered a lot of the scoring load lately. We also have to watch the status of Porter since he tweaked his knee after just 16 minutes on Thursday. If Porter is out, Oubre is a must play, even with Wall on the floor. If not, Porter is still a risk with the knee and the impending return of Wall.

Michael Beasley ($6,400): Beasley has led the Knicks in scoring over the last two games. If he keeps this up, Beastley is back to bargain status. Of course, his success has been kind of fleeting lately. Still, on a short slate, there aren’t a lot of options who can score like Beasley can. He is a bargain compared to Beal, and likely to Kemba as well.

Honorable Mention:

Jeremy Lamb ($5,200): Lamb is still the scorer on the second unit for Charlotte. His numbers have dipped a little since Batum’s return, but Batum is nowhere near 100%. That should give Lamb minutes in the high 20’s and some time with the starters as well. There is still decent upside here with Lamb because of his scoring prowess.

Dark Horse:

Stanley Johnson ($3,900): Johnson turned in a very nice game getting the start with Blake Griffin out. It look as though Griffin will be out for another couple of games, so all aboard the Johnson value train! It isn’t that important this afternoon, but it will be sometime this week!

My pick: Beasley(SF), Johnson(G)

Power Forwards:

Best Bet:

Markieff Morris ($5,900): If Porter is ultimately held out, it will result in more minutes for Morris. Morris played 36 minutes on Thursday with Porter playing just 16 before leaving the game. We also saw Morris pick up a lot of the slack with Porter out, kicking up 36 DraftKings points in that one. Morris is a decent play anyway, but he become an elite value if Porter sits.

Honorable Mention:

Anthony Tolliver ($4,900): Tolliver moved from the three to the four with Griffin out. His fantasy value didn’t change much, but Tolliver garnered some more defensive stats. If he can get the rebound up to where he was at SF, Tolliver could play with 7x value.

Dark Horses:

Marvin Williams ($4,200): Williams has virtually no upside. That’s why you rarely see him here on normal nights. However, Williams boasts four straight games of 20 or more DraftKings points. You can do worse on a short slate. It all depends on if you are just trying to cash, or if you are taking huge risks trying to take down a GPP. Williams will never be a part of a winning lineup.

Frank Kaminsky ($4,100): Frank the Tank is producing about the same as Williams is right now, but I would say that he has more upside. Not much more, but enough to pocket the $100 and use him. I prefer Williams in cash games though.

My pick: Morris(PF), Tolliver(F)

Center:

Best Bets:

Andre Drummond ($10,100): Drummond had a huge game without Blake on Thursday, racking up 61.75 DraftKings points on Washington. Now he gets a Knicks team that will likely be without Enes Kanter. This is low hanging fruit. I will be shocked if Drummond isn’t more than 75% owned. I will be one of those 75%.

Dwight Howard ($8,900): That’s where DraftKings still has one distinct advantage on FanDuel: we can use two centers. Howard has a decent floor right now, but it seems as though if he gets involved early and off to a fast start, his head is more in the game. That results in bigger games when Howard gets involved early. Of course, the bad part is that we don’t know which D-12 we are getting before the end of the first quarter. Today it doesn’t matter. If you can use both Howard and Drummond, do it.

Honorable Mention:

Marcin Gortat ($4,700): There is a steep drop off at center. Gortat is actually serviceable right now though. He has at least 20 DraftKings points in five of the last six games. I’m not crazy about the matchup, but Gortat has a solid 21.8 DraftKings point per game average against Charlotte in three games this year.

Dark Horses:

Kyle O’Quinn ($4,400): O’Quinn is tentatively expected to play. If he does, this could be a huge game for O’Quinn with Enes Kanter now doubtful. Of course, this game tips off two hours after the other game, and the fascists at DraftKings still haven’t brought back late swap for basketball. KOQ is a huge risk if there is no official word, but the upside is enormous.

Luke Kornet ($3,600): If we do get word that O’Quinn is out as well, I’m all for taking a shot on Kornet. Kornet doesn’t always do much with his minutes, so there is risk here. However, Kornet will have the upside for GPP deployment if O’Quinn is ruled out.

My pick: Drummond(C), O’Quinn(UTIL)

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