DraftKings Main NBA Picks March 31: Can Durant stay in the game?

DraftKings Main NBA Picks March 31: Is Whiteside worth the risk?

The three night games feature a lot of injured stars, so there is value to be found here to afford the studs that are left. Of the six teams in action, four of them are in the playoffs right now. Only the Kings and Nets are not, but both of those teams use pretty consistent rotations anyway. They aren’t blatantly tanking like some teams are.

Point Guards:

Best Bets:

Kyle Lowry ($8,400): As usual, choosing players on a short slate isn’t about hitting value. It’s about finding the players who will outscore the rest of their position by the largest margin. I’m not crazy about the matchup with Boston for Lowry, but Kyrie Irving is still out, and Lowry has averaged 39.4 DraftKings points on them in three games so far. There is still enough potential here for Lowry to outscore the field by enough.

Goran Dragic ($7,100): Dragic carries a 31.3 DraftKings points per game average in three tries against the Nets this season, but that is in just 27 minutes per game. There is potential for this game to get out of hand, but still see Dragic somewhere over 30. I’m not sure he hits value though.

Honorable Mention:

Terry Rozier ($6,700): This is a pretty tough matchup for Rozier as well, but Rozier’s floor is what has me looking here. Rozier’s floor is higher than both Dragic and Russell, and it rivals Lowry’s. Rozier may be safer in cash games despite the tougher matchup. Russell has the most upside for GPP usage, but the high ownership will come with that. Rozier can help you avoid that.

Quinn Cook ($6,600): Cook put up a stat line on the Bucks that would make Curry jealous. Cook was 12-15 from the floor and 5-5 from three. He wont have shooting nights like that very often, but that just goes to show you how high the upside is for Cook. This matchup with the Kings is also better than anyone else’s in front of him.

Dark Horses:

Fred VanVleet ($4,800): VanVleet has turned into an elite scorer off the Raptors bench. He has five straight games of more than 20 DraftKings points. Four of those are more than 5x value. There is good potential here against a Boston team that is still a little thin at guard with Irving and Smart out.

Frank Mason ($4,300): Mason is getting more run than Fox right now, and he is performing at a high enough level to keep the minutes coming his way. Mason has at least 20 DraftKings points in five of the last seven. The Warriors are also a little thin at guard, so this could be the night for backups to shine against guys that don’t always see the court.

My pick: Cook(PG), Dragic(UTIL), VanVleet(G)

Best Bets:

DeMar DeRozan ($7,400): DeRozan has a respectable 32.8 DraftKings point per game average in two meeting with Boston this year. Those were both with Marcus Smart on the court. DeRozan should have an easier time since he doesn’t have the deal with Smart here. He is still capable of putting up a big night here and there, but there is still risk involved.

D’Angelo Russell ($6,800): I’m not crazy about this matchup for Russell, but he has topped 45 DraftKings points twice in the last three games. I wont say he does that against Miami, but it makes me believe that 5x value is possible here.

Honorable Mention:

Buddy Hield ($6,100): Hield continues to put up good number since the break. His floor right now is the low 20’s, which hurts when you spend 6k, but it is still better than Hield’s floor used to be. Hield is still a backup to Bogdanovic, but that is often in name only. Hield is the better option with the higher ceiling.

Josh Richardson ($5,900): Richardson’s funk seems to be over. He hit a rough patch last week, but he now has 69.5 DraftKings points over his last two matchups. He should hit 30 again against the Nets.

Dark Horses:

Dwyane Wade ($5,400): The Heat have used Wade sparingly, but Wade is playing fast and furious during his 20 minutes of court time. It’s not like Wade in his prime, but he is still putting up good numbers when he is out there. Wade put up 32 DraftKings points in the first game against the Nets, but that was in 28 minutes. I doubt he plays that much tonight, but he should still score in the high 20’s.

Bogdan Bogdanovic ($4,900): The main thing to take away from Bogdanovic’s big game on Thursday was that it was Justin Jackson who lost minutes when Bogdanovic had the hot hand, not Hield. Bogdanovic is mostly a dart throw at this point, but he can still hit the bullseye once in a while.

My pick: Russell(SG)

Small Forwards:

Best Bet:

Kevin Durant ($10,900): If Durant can keep his cool tonight, he has a good shot at hitting value. Durant was ejected after racking up two technical fouls in just 17 minutes. He was making up for lost time during his two week absence, I guess. If only he could make up for lost points now….

Honorable Mention:

Jayson Tatum ($6,300): Tatum has come up big lately, only dropping under 32 DraftKings points twice in the last eight games. It’s nice to see Tatum becoming more consistent at the end of his rookie season, Much like Hield, Tatum’s floor is high enough to use him now with very little second guessing.

DeMarre Carroll ($6,100): Carroll has back to back 35+ DraftKings points games. Against a Miami front that is still a little battered, Carroll has good potential here again tonight. That is, as long as the Nets keep playing their veterans. Despite being a veteran, Carroll still fits into the team’s plan. They probably want he, Russell, and RHJ playing together as much as possible.

Dark Horses:

Caris LeVert ($5,100): LeVert has not been under 20 DraftKings points in the month of March. That makes him a very strong value play in all formats. His upside is capped with the Nets fully healthy, but LeVert still gets enough run to be in the 30’s most nights.

Justise Winslow ($4,500): Winslow is a very good rebounder, but he is starting to rack up some points to go along with it. Miami is running Winslow out there a lot because of his versatility. If he can keep scoring like he has been, Winslow is a bargain at this price.

My pick: Tatum(SF), LeVert(F)

Power Forwards:

Best Bet:

Draymond Green ($9,100): Green has averaged 39.6 DraftKings points in three games against the Kings this season. Despite the Warriors missing a vast array of stars over the last month, Green has not taken over the team like KD does. The Warriors bench is good enough that they can keep scoring on their own. That leaves Green to frustrate opponents and rack up defensive stats.

Honorable Mention:

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson ($6,500): RHJ has not been under 25 DraftKings points since March 11th. He has not been under 20 since before the Break. That gives RHJ a pretty high floor. That kind of consistency does well in cash games, but there is still enough upside to use him in GPP formats, especially on light nights like tonight.

Skal Labissiere ($5,500): Skal had a miserable night against Indiana on Thursday, but he has been decent against the Warriors this year. The inconsistency is maddening, and we have yet to see the big upside on Labissiere yet. I’m not sure the reward is worth the risk you have to take to get it.

Dark Horses:

Kevon Looney ($4,500): Even with Draymond back, Looney is still getting decent run off the bench. Why? He is essentially a mini Draymond. Looney doesn’t score much, but he racks up defensive stats with the second unit. That gives him a solid floor, but the upside isn’t significant.

Pascal Siakam ($4,300): Siakam has picked it up lately. He has five straight games of more than 20 DraftKings points. That makes him an easy value pick, though there is no upside here.

My pick: N/A

Center:

Best Bet:

Hassan Whiteside ($7,600): The only question here is how many minutes Whiteside will play. The Heat want to start getting him into playoff shape. Whiteside only played 19 minutes against the Bulls in his return, but he still put up 27.75 DraftKings points. There is enormous potential here because the Nets’ horrible interior defense is the stuff of DFS legend. If Whiteside plays 25 minutes, he is going to blow value away. Keep an eye out for minutes restrictions here.

Honorable Mention:

Jonas Valanciunas ($6,400): Valanciunas has struggled against Boston this year, but he has only been under 25 DraftKings points once since March 1st, and has only been under 5x value three times. His recent performance speaks louder than the 39 minutes logged against Boston earlier this year. He almost hits that mark in a single game now.

Greg Monroe ($5,600): Monroe came up huge with Horford out on Wednesday. Being that the Celtics are pretty much trapped in the two seed, they don’t have much of a reason to put Horford out there. That makes Monroe a must-play if Horford is indeed held out.

Dark Horse:

Jarrett Allen ($4,400): We all know that Whiteside is not a great defender, so Allen has solid upside here. Allen has at least 5x value in three of the last four games after a mid March lull. Allen seems safe to use again.

My pick: Whiteside(C), Monroe(PF)

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