DraftKings Early NBA Picks April 1: Is there any reason to fade Harden?

We have a busy Easter Sunday in the NBA. There are 12 games, but only three of them take place earlier in the day. This contest is nice though because it consists of the three games that all start at 3:30 eastern. We should have all of the starting lineups by the time the lineups lock. Should is the operative word.

Point Guards:

Best Bet:

Lou Williams ($7,600): Williams blew up the Pacers for 55.5 DraftKings points in the first meeting, but the chances of him doing that again are not good with the Clippers mostly healthy in the backcourt. LouWill has only hit value once in the four games since that performance against Indiana. However, the potential is there.

Honorable Mention:

Tomas Satoransky ($5,900): John Wall had a superb return to the court yesterday, but the Wizards are going to rest him to ease the strain on his knee. That means we can fire up Satoransky again. Satoransky was a solid contributor with Wall out, and looks like a great option against the beat up Bulls backcourt.

Darren Collison ($5,800): Collison put up 33.5 DraftKings points on the Clippers about ten days ago. The Pacers have eased Collison back into the fold with mostly favorable results. Satoransky has a better matchup, but Collison is a more talented player, giving him higher upside.

Dark Horses:

Cameron Payne ($5,500): Payne is still the starter at the point, but he hasn’t had a game where he hit value since March 23rd. The Wizards may be a tad better against the point without Wall in there. However, if you need to save money, there aren’t a lot of places to do it.

Cory Joseph ($4,200): Joseph has moved back to the bench, but it still producing decent numbers for the price. That said, Joseph’s output is far more inconsistent, making him pretty tough to rely on. He is a decent punt option still since the bench minutes are consistent.

My pick: Satoransky(PG)

Best Bets:

James Harden ($12,000): It’s tough for me to spend this much on Harden, even with Chris Paul out. Harden has averaged 50 DraftKings points per game against the Spurs this year, so he should at least be near value. That gives Harden a solid floor if you are willing to pay up for it. The Beard is about the only one that can drop 50 today.

Victor Oladipo ($9,100): Oladipo put up 39 DraftKings points on the Clippers last week, but that is still slightly disappointing for his price point. However, Oladipo has topped 40 in each of the last two games. He could end up giving you more per dollar value than Harden, but don’t expect a huge game.

Honorable Mention:

Bradley Beal ($7,300): Beal put up 90.75 DraftKings points in his first two games against the Bulls this season. With Wall off the court, Beal has a chance to go off on the Bulls again with Wall taking off the second night of a back to back. Just keep in mind that Beal has not played all that well lately.

Austin Rivers ($5,600): Rivers had a poor night on Friday, but should be able to bounce back against an Indiana team that ceded 24.5 DraftKings points to him a little over a week ago. Rivers still has nice upside due to him being able to put up points in a hurry.

Dark Horse:

Tyrone Wallace ($4,200): Wallace has put up three straight games of over 5x value since getting back in the starting lineup due to more foot problems for Milos Teodosic. There isn’t significant upside here, but Wallace is a sure value pick right now. You can’t underestimate the importance on that, especially on a short slate.

Sean Kilpatrick ($3,400): The Bulls are so ravaged at both guard position that the Nets castoff is putting up some good numbers lately. Kilpatrick put up 21 DraftKings points against Orlando on Friday. Look for him to do something close to that again today.

My pick: Harden(SG), Kilpatrick(UTIL)

Small Forwards:

Best Bets:

Thaddeus Young ($6,900): Young put up 30 DraftKings points in the Clippers in the first meeting. That was part of his six straight games of 30 or more DraftKings points. Young has a solid floor, which makes him especially attractive in cash games, but due to the lack of depth at the position today, he is worth a look in GPP formats as well.

Otto Porter ($6,600): Porter had a huge night with 53.25 DraftKings points. His production wasn’t lacking even with John Wall back. Now with Wall out again, Porter has the potential to take on more of the scoring load again. If he slump is over, which it looks to be, look out!

Honorable Mention:

Kelly Oubre ($5,800): Oubre has seven straight games of more than 20 DraftKings points. There is really good potential for Oubre here tonight with Morris out. The Wizards may have to move Porter to PF, which would leave Oubre to start at the three for a very nice price.

Bojan Bodganovic ($5,400): Bogdanovic lit up the Clippers for 41 DraftKings points last week. That game sparked a four game run with at least 5x value that is still going. It looks like another good situation for Bogdanovic here.

Dark Horses:

Trevor Ariza ($5,300): Ariza has 68 DraftKings points over the last two games, but those were against Phoenix and Chicago. The Spurs are a different animal. Ariza has been solid against the Spurs this year, putting up 48.25 DraftKings points on them this year in two games. I like Ariza as more of a cash game alternative to Bogdanovic.

Danilo Gallinari ($5,200): Gallinari looked pretty good in his return after missing more than a month with a hand injury. He only took six shots in 25 minutes, but he made both three point attempts and contributed across the board. When Gallinari is on, the upside is very good. That makes him an intriguing GPP option.

My pick: Porter(SF), Oubre(G)

Power Forwards:

Best Bet:

Tobias Harris ($7,200): I don’t want any part of Aldridge against Houston, who has allowed the second fewest fantasy points to power forwards this season. They have held Aldridge to a 30 point average as well. Harris wasn’t much better against the Pacers last week, but he still has a better chance of hitting value than LMA does.

Honorable Mention:

Lauri Markkanen ($5,400): Markkanen has picked up 51.75 DraftKings points in two games with the Wizards. He could have a bit easier go of it tonight with Morris out. If you are going to use a Bulls power forward, Markkanen is the one to go with right now. Portis still gets minutes, but his production is far more sporadic than Markkanen.

Dark Horses:

Domantas Sabonis ($4,700): Power forward is thin tonight, otherwise I wouldn’t be all that interested in Sabonis. He was slumping before he went down, and has done little to suggest that the slump is over. Sabonis has a respectable 40 DraftKings points in 48 minutes since his return. That makes him a decent value play, just don’t count on him putting up numbers like he did earlier in the season.

Mike Scott ($3,600): The absence of Morris should throw more minutes Scott’s way. He put up 22.5 DraftKings points in 23 minutes last night. I would expect at least that tonight against the Bulls, which makes Scott an outstanding value.

My pick: Markkanen(PF), Scott(F)

Center:

Best Bets:

DeAndre Jordan ($8,500): Jordan struggled against the Pacers despite a 6-6 night from the floor. He only had 11 rebounds, which is an off night for Jordan. The Clippers have been giving away some of Jordan’s minutes to the youngsters now that they are out of the playoff race, but Jordan still had 40.75 DraftKings points in only 27 minutes against Phoenix on Wednesday. That said, the huge upside is no longer there.

Clint Capela ($7,100): On paper, this matchup with the Spurs doesn’t look so great. However, Capela has averaged 35.1 DraftKings points in three games with the Spurs this year. He looks a lot more likely to hit value than Jordan does right now.

Honorable Mention:

Myles Turner ($6,200): Turner is mired in a horrible slump lately, so despite this being a great matchup, I just don’t know if I can play him tonight. Turner only put up 145 DraftKings points on the Clippers just nine days ago. There is significant risk, but that upside is large.

Dark Horse:

Cristiano Felicio ($4,300): Felicio continues to play very well for the Bulls down the stretch. He has at least 6x value in each of the last six games except for the one against Houston that he was forced to leave. Felicio is one of the safer value plays out there right now.

My pick: Capela(C)

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