We’ll always have Moritz Wagner

Early in the National Championship game  between Michigan and Villanova, certain screenshot from Wikipedia began making the rounds on Twitter, highlighting the fact that notable Michigan basketball alumni — Mitch McGary — was apparently now making his money as a professional bowler.

It was a bittersweet reminder of intriguing a prospect McGary was at Michigan and how quickly that intrigue eroded under the force of NBA basketball. To McGary I offer a thousand well wishes on his bowling career, and a reminder that he’s not the first or last player to look deceivingly potential-laden on the stage of the NCAA Tournament.

Take Moritz Wagner, whose 7-foot frame, polished offensive game, German heritage and beguiling enthusiasm have drawn more than a few Dirk Nowitzki comparisons. Size and accent are two of the laziest ways to compare basketball players, but Wagner’s strong tournament — 14.8 points, 7.4 rebounds, 1.4 assists per game, shooting 59.4 percent from the floor and 40.9 percent on 3-pointers have certainly brought some heat to his NBA Draft prospects.

But if you want to fully understand Wagner’s potential, you could probably boil it down to two plays. One, him frozen on a Eric Paschall jab step, watching as the Villanova big slides past him on the baseline for a dunk. Two, Wagner using his frame to get a step on the smaller Jalen Brunson and slicing through the Villanova defense for a dunk of his own.

Wagner is ranked No. 40 on our latest NBA Draft Big Board, with questions about his defense and athleticism as primary concerns. If you’d like a bit more detail, here’s Trevor Magnotti from a breakdown of Wagner matched up against Michigan State big and future lottery pick Jaren Jackson Jr.

"Jackson only faced one possession with his Wagner as his primary defender, and it is a good starting point for this discussion because it makes it perfectly clear why Jackson is a lottery pick and Wagner’s probably a future second-rounder — athleticism."

Need to hear it again? Here’s Ben Ladner from a look at the five best NBA Draft prospects playing in the Final Four.

"Wagner’s strengths (shooting, rebounding and feel) are obvious, but his weaknesses are equally clear. He isn’t a particularly high-level athlete relative to most players at his position in the NBA, and it is unclear if he will ever become passable on defense."

All this is not to say Moritz Wagner is bound to disappoint. He will almost certainly log some NBA minutes and there’s a chance he could land in the right context, where his strengths are valued and unpacked, where his weaknesses are minimized. Where what he can do on a basketball court is useful. Frank Kaminsky is reasonably positive player, firmly entrenched in an NBA rotation. That outcome is certainly in the ballpark for our German friend. But, like Wagner, Kaminsky was also a Tournament hero who, for a few weeks, looked like much more.

The college game has a way of accentuating certain strengths and weaknesses. It’s not just that the level of competition is lower, it’s a different game, with different rules and a different style. Players can score in different ways, and be stopped in others. Even different aspects of a player’s personality can be highlighted by the game and the media coverage. Dominance, fleeting or otherwise, is simply not guaranteed to translate from one level to the next.

Next: Following the New Orleans Pelicans through five games in six days

Moritz Wagner may be a very good NBA player, but this Tournament is almost certainly the most impactful he’ll ever be, the closest to basketball transcendence. He may still be the hero, or the toughest obstacle for another Wildcat hero (as of this writing Michigan was trailing by 15 points with just under 12 minutes remaining).So, hold your memories close and pour one out for context and situational excellence. Whatever Moritz Wagner is going to be, he will almost certainly never be this Moritz Wagner again.