This Week in Stats: Have Tottenham wrapped up top four race?

Manchester City are almost there, Liverpool got away with a lucky win and Tottenham may have ensured Chelsea spend next season in the Europa League.

For Manchester City, victory at Goodison Park meant almost everything. By beating Everton, Pep Guardiola’s side can now clinch the title in front of their own fans against Manchester United. They’ll no doubt have to break down Jose Mourinho’s parked bus to do it, but they’re more than capable of that.

On Saturday, it wasn’t clear Everton were even playing the same sport, never mind being in City’s league. The theme of the importance of taking top quality chances runs through this column this week, and had Yannick Bolasie scored his clear-cut chance when the score was only 1-0, City may have had to work harder for their win.

As it was, they were out of sight by halftime, and could take their foot off the gas in the second half. With one eye no doubt on their massive match at Anfield on Wednesday, this was ideal for City. The match stats may appear to show it was a close run thing, but in truth it was anything but.

Exhibit A: The expected goals timeline for the match. The final xG tallies of 0.8 vs. 1.9 would suggest City deserved to win narrowly. Yet when Raheem Sterling put the visitors 3-0 up in the 37th minute, the figures were 0.4 to 1.7.

In other words, very little happened after City had put the game to bed. The match was played entirely on their terms, with Everton reduced to hapless bystanders.

Bolasie did pull a goal back, and Oumar Niasse missed a clear-cut chance with six minutes to go, but the result was never in doubt. Manchester City’s next three matches could turn an already great season into the stuff of legend.

Benteke, not Salah, saved Liverpool

Liverpool claimed a win of massive significance at Selhurst Park. And not just because the victory opened up a 10-point gap on Chelsea, though more on that shortly.

It was significant, as it was the Reds’ third away win in the last two seasons where they were spared from defeat by poor opposition finishing.

In the past three seasons, there have been just seven Premier League games where the home side has had fewer than 10 shots, but at least four clear-cut chances. The only away team to feature more than once in one of these games is Liverpool. In fact, they’ve been on the receiving end of it three times; at Swansea and Stoke in 2016-17, and at Crystal Palace on Saturday.

Somehow, Liverpool have won every time. No other away side involved in such matches has managed to, and Jurgen Klopp’s team have also come from behind to win 2-1 on each occasion.

In this match, while Mohamed Salah scored the winner, it was two misses from Christian Benteke when the score was 1-1 which gave Liverpool a chance of victory.

The Belgian is having a remarkably bad season in front of goal. He has had 22 clear-cut chances, yet has only scored two of them. He missed two on Saturday when he had the Liverpool goal at his mercy.

Across the last seven seasons, a player has had at least 22 clear-cut chances 46 times. On average, 44 percent of their collective chances have been scored, but Benteke has only netted nine percent of his. He isn’t just bottom of the pile for conversation rate, but almost twice as bad as the next worst offender; Olivier Giroud only scored four from 23 in 2012-13, in case you’re wondering.

Mohamed Salah may have scored the winner, but it was Benteke who gave him that chance.

Next: Lukaku joins elite company in United win

Tottenham’s win at the Bridge has been a long time coming

Tottenham won the final match of the weekend, despite conceding the opening goal. When Alvaro Morata gave Chelsea the lead, many people would’ve assumed the home side would probably go on to win.

After all, they’d won 16 of the 17 league matches when scoring the opening goal. However, in two of their last four league games, including this one, they’ve now scored first and lost.

The Antonio Conte era at Chelsea has been unwinding for a while, but now it appears to be collapsing in a heap. The three previous Chelsea managers who won the league or Champions League lasted no more than a year afterward, and Conte will surely make it four.

Chelsea’s goal is not one which Hugo Lloris will want to see again. The French international got nowhere near Victor Moses’ cross, which left Morata with an easy header.

Lloris has now made four Opta-defined errors leading to goals this season; only Petr Cech (with six) and Asmir Begovic (five) have made more. For a top goalkeeper, Lloris commits too many howlers.

All four of the Blues’ shots on target in the match occurred before Spurs got back into the game. Some better finishing may have seen them extend their lead, but it wasn’t to be.

And how costly it proved. Christian Eriksen equalized for Tottenham with a screamer on the stroke of halftime. He’s scored 16 goals from outside the box since his league debut in September 2013; the most of any current player in the Premier League. Philippe Coutinho has scored more, but now plays in Spain. Still, there’s no doubt the Dane can be deadly from distance.

Eriksen also played a fine pass in the build up to Dele Alli’s second goal, though perhaps the champions’ catastrophic defending was the biggest contributing factor. Despite having 28 minutes to muster a response, Chelsea created little of note and lost the match in meek fashion. With that, their quest for a top four finish is almost certainly over.

Chelsea’s talented squad is certainly capable of winning their last seven matches. Aside from Liverpool’s visit to Stamford Bridge, their remaining fixtures aren’t too daunting. However, they’ve only won seven of their last 16 league matches, and never more than four in a row at any point in 2017-18.

The Blues may yet win the FA Cup, and they have the easiest draw in the semifinals, but it appears they’ll be playing in the Europa League next season. The only question now is who their new manager will be.