DraftKings NBA Picks April 3: Stack the Denver frontcourt

The NBA let their farm system (the NCAA) have center stage last night with their rendition of Donte’s Inferno, so the Association is back with 26 of the 30 teams in action! This huge slate can be intimidating, but let’s try and pick through this. There are some important games like Raptors-Cavs, Warriors-Thunder, and Pacers-Nuggets. How should we approach players from these games? Let’s start going through this huge slate!

Point Guards:

Best Bets:

Russell Westbrook ($11,800): Westbrook has averaged 56.3 DraftKings points in three games against the Warriors this year. Russ may come up a little short of value, but there is also a good chance that he feasts on the Warriors with Curry out in a game that the Thunder need a lot more than the Warriors do.

Ben Simmons ($9,600): Simmons has put up 117.5 DraftKings points in the last two games with Embiid out. It seems as though the do-everything guard is doing more scoring to help the team hang on to that number four slot. In fact, the Sixers still have a shot at the three slot, which would keep them from facing Toronto in the second round. Simmons has been outstanding lately, I don’t see that changing tonight.

Damian Lillard ($9,000): This is a pretty nice matchup with a Dallas team that has allowed 89 DraftKings points to Lillard over two games. That is almost exactly 5x value. Lillard has at least 42 DraftKings points in each of the last five games as well, He is playing well, but with Portland comfortably in the playoffs, they may choose to rest Lillard a little more than usual. He played only 33 minutes against Memphis on Sunday.

Honorable Mention:

Kyle Lowry ($8,400): Lowry put up 42.5 DraftKings points in the first meeting, which puts him right about at 5x value. Now, the Raptors don’t really need to win this game, but their psyche does. The confidence that they would get from beating Cleveland would be a huge boost entering the playoffs. Therefore, I think this plays more like a playoff game. I see a nice game from Lowry here again.

John Wall ($7,500): Wall was not on a minutes limit in his returns, so it would make sense that he wouldn’t be here either. The Rockets still have no reason to play Chris Paul with the playoff still a couple of weeks off. I see a lot of potential for Wall here at this price.

Ricky Rubio ($6,800): Rubio put up 37.25 DraftKings points on the Lakers in his only game against them this year. The Jazz are only a half game back of the Thunder and a full game back of the Spurs. It would be huge for them if they could move up to that four spot, so I expect to see them giving it all against the Lakers. With as poor as the Lakers guard defense is, this could be a big game for Rubio.

Trey Burke ($6,600): Burke put up 44.5 DraftKings points on the Magic against them earlier this year. Burke had an amazing March, and is showing no signs of slowing down. The Knicks are starting to think that he may have a place on the team going forward. Burke should still see plenty of minutes down the stretch, so I have no issues with him playing for a lame duck team.

Dark Horses:

Tyler Ulis ($6,200): Ulis now has at least 30 DraftKings points in four of the last five games. Payton isn’t getting his job back anytime soon. The Suns are going to let Ulis run with this job. The experience should prove invaluable come next season.

Isaiah Taylor ($5,800): I’m willing to forgive Taylor for his transgressions against my lineup on Sunday because the volume of shots was still there, he just didn’t hit many of them. In fact, Taylor set a career high with 18 shot attempts. I’m thinking that nights like that are going to happen once in a while, but it shouldn’t be a nagging problem. Taylor is a decent option, even against the Heat.

Dante Exum ($4,200): Exum is largely an afterthought after a few injury plagued seasons, but he is starting to realize some of that enormous potential. Exum has 59 DraftKings points in 54 minutes over the last two games. He fits in well with this team and lineup, and should only see an increase in usage going forward. I’m a huge fan at this price.

My pick: Ulis(PG), Exum(G)

Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

Victor Oladipo ($9,200): The top of the position is littered with bad matchups, and Oladipo fits that bill. However, he racked up 71.75 DraftKings points in the first meeting with Denver this season. Now, this was at a time that Oladipo was mostly operating as the point guard. He could have a much tougher go of it if he spends the whole game off the ball.

DeMar DeRozan ($7,600): If you are a Raptors believer, play DeRozan. For the rest of us, this needs to be taken with a grain of salt. Despite the great matchup on paper, the Cavs have tied down DeRozan this season. He is only averaging 31.3 DraftKings points per game against the Cavs. Of course, he has only averaged 32 minutes per game. If Toronto can keep the game close, DeRozan should have a sizable impact. If they fall flat again, he can destroy a lineup.

D’Angelo Russell ($7,300): The Saturday benching must have done some good because Russell was hustling on Sunday. He was around 5x value at this price again. We all love the upside here, but this is not a great matchup with Philly, especially if he plays point most of the game. There is upside here though.

Honorable Mention:

Tim Hardaway Jr. ($6,700): Hardaway is definitely in the future for the Knicks, so he is going to be out there in full capacity. He has 83.5 DraftKings points in two games against Orlando this season. Hardaway isn’t the most consistent guy, but he can put up numbers in a favorable matchup like this.

Will Barton ($6,600): Barton put on a full out assault on the Pacers in the first meeting. He put up 47 DraftKings points in that one doing a little bit of everything in that game. Barton has not been putting up huge numbers in the absence of Gary Harris, but the Pacers are a top five team defending the point. Barton should get a whole lot more open looks than Murray does.

Buddy Hield ($6,400): Hield has three straight games with exactly 34.25 DraftKings points. If that isn’t consistency at it’s finest! There is a ton of upside against Phoenix tonight. Hield may actually get off that 34.25 kick!

Dark Horses:

Dwyane Wade ($5,400): Wade has lit up the Hawks for 89.75 DraftKings points in just 54 minutes this season! There is a lot of potential for Wade here. If the recent rotations are any kind of indicator, the Heat see Wade as a valuable piece of their playoff puzzle. Wade wont play 35 minutes like he used to, but he is doing a lot of damage in his 24-28 minutes.

Bogdan Bogdanovic ($5,100): Bogdanovic continues to play consistent minutes for the Kings despite the success of Hield. He is a solid play in this price range, but he isn’t quite as capable of the explosive lines as Hield is. Still, it’s pretty easy for Bogdanovic to hit value at this pirce.

Malik Monk ($3,900): The Hornets are out of the playoff chase now, so they are giving the youngsters some run. Monk has been a big benefactor of that. He has 50.75 DraftKings points over the last two games against two playoff teams in Philadelphia and Washington. He can do a lot of damage against the Bulls tonight.

My pick: N/A

Small Forwards:

Best Bets:

Kevin Durant ($11,200): Both of the studs at the position tonight are hard sells for me. LeBron put up a triple double on Sunday, but still fell short of value at his outrageous price. He isn’t hitting 60 against the Raptors either. Durant has only averaged 40.3 DraftKings points per game against his former team this year, but with Curry out, Durant is the focus of the offense. The potential is here for him to have a huge game.

Paul George ($7,700): George carries a 44.1 DraftKings point per game average against the Warriors this year. While Westbrook and Durant get all of the attention, it has been George who has provided more value for the price in this series. Expect that trend to continue for tonight.

Josh Jackson ($7,500): The Suns have no reason to play Booker or Warren again this season. God forbid they actually win another game. That leaves plenty of run for Jackson, who has ten straight games with at least 30 DraftKings points. He is a low risk option due to that high floor, and he has quite a bit of potential against the Kings tonight.

Honorable Mention:

Taurean Prince ($7,100): Prince has 80 DraftKings points in two meetings with Miami this season. He is the offense for the Hawks right now. Keep riding Prince. The chance of the wheels falling off is pretty slim at this point with half a dozen games left.

Michael Beasley ($6,800): Beastley has three straight games of 40 or more DraftKings points. This game is early enough that we should have word on whether or not Beasley plays by the time the lineups lock. If Beasley is in there for the Knicks, he’s in there for me as well.

Marcus Morris ($6,400): The rash of injuries for the Celtics has opened the door for Morris to pick up serious minutes. Not only has he done well, but he has propelled the Celtics back into the race for the top overall seed in the East. Even if Boston gets healthy now, they have to keep riding Morris while he is hot. We should too.

Dark Horses:

Josh Richardson ($5,900): Richardson is closing out his breakout season on a pretty impressive run. The presence of Wade has shifted Richardson to the three, and he is just as hot there. Richardson has 83 DraftKings points in two games against Atlanta this season. They obviously can’t guard him. That makes Richardson a safe value play.

Ersan Ilyasova ($5,600): Ilyasova was rescued from purgatory (Atlanta), and wasn’t thought to be much of a factor for the Sixers. However, his strong play after Embiid went down has afforded him more minutes in the frontcourt. His production is not that consistent, but Ilyasova is capable of bigger games than Holmes or Johnson. And this is Brooklyn. Someone is going to abuse them in the frontcourt tonight.

Jabari Parker ($4,400): The Bucks played Parker 39 minutes on Sunday. He responded with a vintage game. 35 points, ten rebounds, and 58 DraftKings points. Don’t expect a repeat against Boston, but if Parker can get some consistency, he is going to make the Bucks a very tough out in the playoffs.

My pick: Jackson(SG), Ilyasova(SF), Parker(UTIL)

Power Forwards:

Best Bets:

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,800): Of all of the high priced options out there tonight, Giannis may be the best. Boston has allowed a 59.3 DraftKings points per game average to Giannis in three games so far. Boston can’t defend him anywhere on the court, especially when he plays the four. There is serious potential here tonight.

LaMarcus Aldridge ($8,900): Aldridge is trying to keep the Spurs in the mix for the four seed practically by himself. LMA has at least 45 DraftKings points in seven of the last eight games. You think Harris is going to stop him? Don’t count on it. Aldridge is an acceptable pivot off of Aldridge.

Honorable Mention:

Kevin Love ($7,400): Two weeks ago Love racked up 49 DraftKings points on Toronto. Whether you are willing to play Love or not will depend on how you feel Toronto will respond to being beaten up by the Cavs in that game. I don’t know that Love will drop 49 again, but it’s certainly possible.

James Johnson ($6,900): The Hawks are weak up front, so Johnson has a lot of potential here. The only question is how many minutes he will play. If the Heat run off with this, they will rest players later in the game. That makes Johnson a bit of a risk since he needs 35 DraftKings points just to hit 5x value. The money line hasn’t been right at 5x value for a while, so for me, Johnson is a no. I just don’t think he ends up playing enough.

Paul Millsap ($6,700): Millsap is back and he is not priced like it. Millsap has 105 DraftKings points in the last two games, and his price has been an average of $6,250. That makes him a huge value tonight!

Dark Horses:

Marquese Chriss ($5,900): Chriss has three straight games of more than 36 DraftKings points. The Suns are obviously going to let Chriss have run to close out the season. Just like Millsap, he has huge bargain potential tonight

Lauri Markkanen ($5,700): Markkanen is back to full strength, and despite only playing 28 minutes or less in the last three games, he has gone over 30 DraftKings points in all of them. Markkanen is a solid value pick, but in a GPP, there are far more explosive options.

Richaun Holmes ($5,100): Holmes continues to get solid run with Embiid out, but the emergence of Ilyasova has taken a lot of his thunder. That said, Dario Saric is out tonight as well, so Holmes should see a nice amount of minutes tonight.

My pick: Millsap(PF)

Center:

Best Bets:

Nikola Jokic ($9,800): Jokic is trying to drive Denver into the playoffs almost by himself lately. If the Nuggets get in, they are tough up front with Millsap finally healthy again. Jokic has three straight games of more than 58 DraftKings points. Are you going to bet against him doing it again? I’m not sure I would.

Nikola Vucevic ($8,500): Vucevic has rattled off four straight games of more than 40 DraftKings points. Another one against the Knicks without Enes Kanter is virtually a given.

Honorable Mention:

Hassan Whiteside ($7,300): Whiteside let out that he was frustrated with his playing time after Saturday’s game. Us DFS players feel his pain. Will it do any good? If it does, this is a fantastic matchup against the Hawks, who are one of the bottom five teams in the league defending centers. His price is also very low for what he is capable of. This is a huge risk though.

Jonas Valanciunas ($6,600): Valanciunas is one of the few Raptors that have handled themselves against Cleveland. Valanciuas has 69 DraftKings points in just 38 minutes against Cleveland this year. The risk is that the Raptors often go small against Cleveland leaving Jonas on the bench. Maybe they should rethink that.

Myles Turner ($6,000): Turner is always like playing roulette no matter the matchup. He ravaged Denver for 45.5 DraftKings points in the first meeting. What are the chances he does it again? It’s not better than roulette, that’s for sure.

Dark Horses:

Dewayne Dedmon ($5,700): Dedmon has picked up an average of 35.1 DraftKings points per game over the last three games. Depending on what Miami does with Whiteside, Dedmon could have a big game or a huge game. At any rate, he’s a strong bet tonight.

Kyle O’Quinn ($5,100): O’Quinn had a big game against Detroit with Kanter out. He will have no problems doing that against Orlando tonight as well. You may not need another value play, but O’Quinn should destroy value again tonight.

My pick: Jokic(C), O’Quinn(F)

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