3. Alex Noren
The European Tour has produced numerous quality PGA players — look no farther than all-time Masters dark-horse winner Danny Willett as an example — and Noren is the latest success story. The Swede played a career-high 11 PGA events last season after qualifying full-time for the tour, and this year he’s played seven, splitting time between Europe and North America.
He has managed a top-25 finish in five of those seven tournaments, rising to 18th in the FedEx Cup standings and 17th in the overall world rankings. Noren ranks ninth on tour in shots gained approaching the green, meaning he has been efficient on the fairway, and he’s sixth in total shots gained, simply indicating how good of a season he’s had.
Despite a lack of pure strength off the tee, Noren is one of the PGA’s best on par 5s. He ranks third in average par 5 scoring, with a 4.47 mark, and he has scored a birdie or better on 52 of the 92 PGA par 5s he’s played this season, placing him fifth. He is a solid, if unspectacular, 41st in club head speed (117.02 mph), and he ranks 47th in average driving distance (302.2 yds). This presents a stark contrast to others on the tour who fare well on par 5s. Dustin Johnson and Bryson DeChambeau, who rank first and second in par 5 scoring average, are off-the-charts with the driver in their hands.
Noren hits fairways and can handle himself when forced to hit woods long. His finesse game is good too, as his average distance from the hole after approach shots from 125-150 yards places 21st.
To win a green jacket, he’ll have to put the rest of his game together. He putts well, with a ranking of 20th in putting strokes gained, but he’s below average at chipping, and he struggles when forced to scramble. While Noren is a well-rounded player, he’ll have to go from above-average to elite for four days.