DraftKings NBA Picks April 4: Should we pay up for A.D.?

We have a lighter night in the Association with six games tonight. The Spurs-Lakers game starts 3.5 hours after lineup lock and 2.5 hours after all of the other games. It may be worth fading that one just on principle since late swap is no longer involved. Only the Boston-Toronto tilt is between two teams bound for the playoffs, but it is also a battle for the top seed in the East.

Point Guards:

Best Bets:

Ben Simmons ($10,200): These are still important games for the Sixers, so Simmons should continue doing what he does. He could be the best triple-double threat in the league outside of Oklahoma City with Embiid out. This is another pretty good matchup for Simmons, but he is still a rookie. There is a chance that he still has some off games.

Kyle Lowry ($7,900): Kyrie Irving is still out, and Terry Rozier missed last night’s game. If both of them are still out tomorrow, I really like Lowry against the likes of Shane Larkin, assuming he is over his illness, and Kadeem Allen. Keep an eye on the Celtics’ injury report to see just how good of a play Lowry is tonight.

Honorable Mention:

Dennis Smith Jr. ($6,800): Smith put up 39 DraftKings points on the Magic in the first meeting this season. The team is marginally better defending the point since then, but not much. Not enough to keep Smith under 30. I see a solid value from Smith tonight.

Dejounte Murray ($6,000): Murray has picked up 71.5 DraftKings points in two games against the Lakers this year in just 50 minutes. That means that Murray is playing his normal rotational minutes, but the output is way up. I could see something like that going on tonight regardless of whether Ball plays or not.

Dark Horses:

Reggie Jackson ($5,700): Jackson has at least 25 DraftKings points in each of the last four games. The minutes keep steadily increasing, so expect Jackson’s output to stay in this area over the rest of the season. He has played at a nice level for the price lately, so it seems safe to roll with him.

Isaiah Taylor ($5,200): So much for the tough matchup against Miami. Taylor put up 35.75 DraftKings points on the Heat last night. There is reason to believe that he can at least hit 5x value once again, if not come close to that score.

Shelvin Mack ($4,300): Mack continues to be far more consistent and at least $1,500 cheaper than Augustin. Mack sits a touch above 5x value over the last ten games. That kind of consistency is big in cash games, but Mack is about as safe as it gets for a cheap play in GPP tournaments as well.

My pick: Simmons(PG), Mack(G)

Shooting Guards:

Best Bet:

DeMar DeRozan ($7,800): DeRozan put up 52.25 DraftKings points against Boston on Saturday in a losing effort. The Raptors just lost to both the Cavs and Celtics, and now they have to face Boston again. They need this win, and DeRozan will have to be a huge part of that again.

Honorable Mention:

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($5,400): Usually playing anyone against the Spurs defense is ill advised, but KCP has 73.75 DraftKings points in two games against San Antonio this season. The minutes are still there for KCP, he is just doing almost nothing besides scoring, and he hasn’t hit a shot from beyond the arc since March 26th. Can he get back on track.

Dwyane Wade ($5,200): Wade’s sterling average against the Hawks went down last night as he only had 27 DraftKings points. Hey, I’m not complaining. That’s still 5x value, which will mean a lot more on tonight’s slate than last night.

Dark Horses:

Damion Lee ($4,800): Lee put up another big game with 37.25 DraftKings points last night. That was his largest total so far as a member of the Hawks. Lee is getting good run on a bad team. Expect that to continue for the rest of the season. Lee is somewhat inconsistent, but he have seen his upside. It is definitely worth a look in GPP formats.

Stanley Johnson ($4,600): The Pistons are taking scoring help from anywhere with Blake off of the court. Johnson plays big minutes on this team, so the opportunities will continue to be there for him. He does carry a solid amount of risk though since he is relatively new to this scoring thing.

My pick: DeRozan(SG),

Small Forwards:

Best Bets:

Kyle Kuzma ($7,200): The cold shooting has limited his value, but Kuzma is still playing a big role in this offense. However, this is going to be a tough game with the Spurs. Even on a short slate like this and at a shallow position, we should be able to do better. However, if he can get that percentage up there is potential here, even against this team.

Marcus Morris ($6,400): Morris came crashing back to earth last night, but the volume was still there. He just wasn’t hitting any shots. So long as Morris remains this involved in the offense, he is a strong value play in the mid range.

Honorable Mention:

Robert Covington ($6,200): Covington has at least 30 DraftKings points in nine of the last 12 games. He is getting back into form just in time for the Sixers push for the playoffs. Not only are they pushing for the playoffs, but Philly has a legitimate shot at hosting at least one playoff series. This is the process that Sam Hinkie preached about.

Ersan Ilyasova ($5,600): Phiilly had eight players score in double figures last night, so they attacked the Nets form all over the court. Ilyasova was one of those, posting his third straight double-double in his third straight start. So long as he is starting, Ilyasova is a strong value play. it should continue at least until Embiid gets back.

Dark Horses:

Rudy Gay ($4,700): Gay is a fraction of the player he once was, but much like the other aging Spurs, the team has put him in a position to succeed. Like Ginobili and Tony Parker, Gay now comes off the bench behind a younger player, but he still plays around 27-30 minutes per game. Gay is constantly at or around 5x value. He has averaged 27 DraftKings points per game against the Lakers this year. Expect another strong game from Gay at his price point.

Dillon Brooks ($4,600): Brooks put up a huge night on Sunday. Was it just an April Fool’s joke, or is this something he can sustain over the rest of the season? We will find out tonight since the Pelicans have allowed the most fantasy points in the league to small forwards. Brooks is a huge value pick tonight.

My pick: Ilyasova(SF), Brooks(G)

Power Forwards:

Best Bets:

Anthony Davis ($11,800): Davis might have the highest ceiling of anyone in the NBA right now, but his floor is one of the lowest of the five figure guys. We have seen Brow under 5x value at this price seven times in the last ten games. We have also seen him over 70 in that span. The Pelicans still need wins, and the Grizzlies will surrender them pretty easily, but there is no guarantee that Davis will hit value anymore.

LaMarcus Aldridge ($9,300): LMA turned in another strong performance against the Clippers last night. This would be one of the places where you may expect Pop to rest a guy like Aldridge, but with the season winding down, the Spurs need all the wins they can get. I expect Aldridge to perform at his game high level in this one for as long as he is needed.

Honorable Mention:

Kelly Olynyk ($6,400): Since Miami clinched a playoff spot last night, I have a feeling that they are going to rest some starters tonight. The leading candidates would be Dragic and James Johnson, but it is possible they could rein in Whiteside or Richardson as well. This Olynyk play once makes sense if he starts. Otherwise, he wont see the court enough to hit value at this price. Keep an eye on this throughout the day.

Jayson Tatum ($6,100): We saw Kevin Love take it to the Raptors again last night. Tatum hasn’t done a lot against Toronto this year, but he has been far more involved in the offense with Horford struggling and Irving out. There is good potential here for Tatum tonight. He has four straight games of more than 30 DraftKings points.

Dark Horses:

Mario Hezonja ($5,300): The Magic are still beat up across the board, and they have no incentive to rush Fournier, Simmons, or Isaac back, so Hezonja should see another start. Over the last five starts, Hezonja has hit 5x value in four of those. He has topped 6x value twice. There is decent upside here.

John Collins ($5,100): Collins put up another double-double on Miami last night. He has now averaged just over 28 DraftKings points per game in three games against the Heat this year. The Hawks are going to roll Collins out there for about 30 minutes a game for the rest of the year. That makes him a solid value.

My pick: Aldridge(PF)

Center:

Best Bets:

Nikola Vucevic ($8,300): I don’t really trust Detroit to ride Drummond like they have been now that the playoffs are off the table. I expect solid numbers from Drummond, but not enough to trust the five figure salary. I will go with Vucevic against a weak Dallas interior, though Orlando may start limiting the minutes of Vucevic as well.

Marc Gasol ($6,900): Gasol has averaged 41.2 DraftKings points in three games against the Pelicans this year. The caveat here with Gasol is his limited minutes. He is still producing huge numbers on a per minute basis, but the Grizzlies haven’t ran Gasol out there for half a game or more in over a week. This is a very tempting matchup though.

Honorable Mention:

Hassan Whiteside ($6,600): Whiteside got 28 minutes, the most since his return, last night. He responded with 40 DraftKings points. We do have to be careful here since the Heat may want to rest Whiteside since they are in the playoffs now. Keep an eye out for the status of Whiteside tonight. If he plays, I want him in there.

Jonas Valanciunas ($6,200): Valanciunas held strong against Cleveland last night, putting up his sixth straight game of more than 30 DraftKings points. This is not a great matchup for Jonas, but it’s not bad either. This is a huge game for the Raptors. They need guys like Valanciunas to step up.

Dark Horses:

Richaun Holmes ($4,300): Holmes put up 31.25 DraftKings points on the Nets last night. It’s going to be a little tougher sledding against Detroit, but we know that Holmes is going to see good minutes. With only 21.5 DraftKings points needed for 5x value, Holmes is a solid value play.

Maxi Kleber ($3,800): Kleber hasn’t been the most consistent guy around, but he has put up more than 25 DraftKings points twice in the last three games. This is a good matchup for Dirk lite. Dallas wants to see what he has. That makes him worth using in GPP lineups.

My pick: Kleber(C), Holmes(F)

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