How far can the Boston Celtics go without Kyrie Irving?

Let’s be honest, as fun as this Boston Celtics season has been, they were always playing with found money. Boston’s championship hopes were dashed on Opening Night when Gordon Hayward was lost for the season to a gruesome leg injury. They sat in the No. 1 in the Eastern Conference for most of the season but, statistically, they appeared to be a tier below some of their competition.

Boston has won four games more than we would expect given their point differential. On Feb. 11, the last day they were in first place in the Eastern Conference, Boston’s point differential was fourth in the NBA, and less than half the mark the Raptors had set. They won games, they were fun, but they probably weren’t good enough without Hayward.

With the announcement today that Irving would need a second operation on his knee, keeping him out of the playoffs entirely, things open up for the Celtics even more. Any hint of unrealistic expectations have been thoroughly snuffed out. The Celtics weren’t winning the title and now it should be obvious to even the most die hard fans.

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This news is certainly not a good thing — especially if it leaves any lingering issues for Irving into next season and beyond. However, it is an opportunity.

Going into the postseason without their leading scorer and with expectations seriously diminished means the Celtics can feed opportunities to Terry Rozier, Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum, giving them more reps as primary creators in (relatively) high-leverage situations.

Brown and Tatum have both had usage rates over 23.0 with Irving out. They were 18.7 and 20.6, respectively, before Irving left the lineup. That pair is also combining for 14.2 drives and 8.7 potential assists per game, compared to 9.8 and 5.8 when Irving was playing. Opportunities to create offense off the dribble should serve them well next season, when those skills will be relied on less frequently and in more advantageous matchups.

Boston haven’t been particularly good with Irving out, managing a point differential just barely on the right side of zero. However, their defense has been predictably exceptional and they’ve managed some big wins over this Irving-less stretch. The Celtics will likely see Milwaukee, Miami or Washington in the first round. All three of those matchups present problems and Boston could easily get upset. However, their defense has been good enough that they can also beat all three of those teams, even without Irving.

The issue is whether Boston can manufacture enough offense to allow their defense to be the difference. Their point differential per 100 possessions since Irving went out, plus-0.6, would rank last among the season-long marks of the Eastern Conference playoff teams. Their offensive rating in the time Irving has been out, 101.9 points per 100 possessions, would rank 26th if stretched across the entire season.

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Boston’s roster has played better basketball this season and it’s possible that the muscle memory from those healthier days, as well as whatever short-term developmental upside Brown, Tatum and Rozier sill have, could raise the Celtics ceiling. But while their record and seed will tag them as favorites, any first round matchup will probably be closer to a 50/50 proposition. Advancing beyond that would be a considerable longshot.

The good news is that it was always about next year anyway.