DraftKings NBA Picks April 5: Fire up LeBron against the Wizards

We have a lighter night in the Association with six games tonight. The Pacers/Warriors game that tips at 6pm Eastern gets the exclusion treatment tonight, and is only available in the showdown format. Wouldn’t it be easier to just add late swap back to the NBA and be done with it? We still have five games in the main tournament. Eight of those ten teams are either fighting for playoff positioning or to get in. That makes this a pretty safe slate to play on!

Point Guards:

Best Bets:

John Wall ($8,200): I’m not entirely sure that the Wizards are ready to really turn Wall loose yet, but he has played 33 minutes in both of his games back. If he gets that against Cleveland tonight, 5x value should be cake. Wall has 91.5 DraftKings points in 70 minutes against Cleveland this year. He is easily the best option with Lillard out.

Chris Paul ($8,000): Paul has averaged 52.3 DraftKings points per game in three games against the Blazers this year. Shots are going to be even easier for Paul to come by tonight since Lillard is out. The only thing that makes me nervous is that this game might get ugly, and the Rockets may rest their stars for a lot of the fourth quarter.

Honorable Mention:

Eric Bledsoe ($7,900): Bledsoe was held in check by the Celtics, but in his three games before that, Bledsoe was destroying value. He has a chance to do that against the Nets again tonight, but there is also the possibility that this game gets out of hand. Bledsoe has only played 62 minutes in two games against Brooklyn so far this year. He has 69.25 DraftKings points in that span. That would leave him under value if Bledsoe got in that range at this price.

Ricky Rubio ($7,000): Rubio has three straight games of 42 or more DraftKings points. For whatever reason, Rubio has struggled against the Clippers this year, averaging just 28.5 DraftKings points in 29.6 minutes per game in those three contests. However, with the way Rubio is playing right now, he should increase those averages.

Dark Horses:

Jamal Murray ($6,300): Murray has 87.25 DraftKings points in two games against Minnesota so far this year. His price is way too low for taking on the horrid point defense of the Timberwolves. Take full advantage of this one tonight!

Shabazz Napier ($5,300): Napier is the one who usually starts when Lillard is out. He put up 26.75 DraftKings points in his last start. And we all remember what C.J. did. Napier is a solid value play here, but the upside is capped taking on Chris Paul.

My pick: Murray(PG), Napier(G)

Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

James Harden ($11,400): This looks like a tougher matchup for Harden, but looks can be deceiving. Harden has 130 DraftKings points in two games against Portland this season. Harden has the potential to be a bargain here, and may not be highly owned with LeBron on the slate.

C.J. McCollum ($7,500): The last time that Lillard missed a game, C.J. went off for 55.75 DraftKings points . Harden is a better defender than he used to be, as you can see by McCollum’s 31.2 DraftKings point per game average in three games against Portland this year. I like him here tonight though. McCollum will see a huge increase in usage with Lillard off the court.

Honorable Mention:

Bradley Beal ($7,300): In three prior games against Cleveland this year, Beal has averaged 43.1 DraftKings points per game. That leaves Beal as a pretty good bargain here. Cleveland’s defense is better than it was two months ago, but no one is going to mistake them for Utah anytime soon, especially on the perimeter. There is still potential for both Beal and Wall tonight.

Donovan Mitchell ($7,100): The consistency from Mitchell is impressive, even more so when you consider that this is his rookie season. Mitchell has at least 30 DraftKings points in all but one game since March 1st. That makes him gold in cash games, and a solid play in GPP’s since he has been in the mid 40’s or higher a few times in that span.

Dark Horses:

Kelly Oubre ($4,900): Oubre is still seeing around 30 minutes a night even with Wall back. He is mired in a horrible slump right now, so his production is down across the board. However, Oubre makes a nice GPP dart because the shots are still there. The last thing Washington wants to do is head into the playoff with a cold Oubre. They may even give him more minutes to try and bring a halt to the slump earlier!

Jamal Crawford ($4,400): Crawford continues to dump in points off the bench with Butler out. Since Crawford is almost exclusively a shooter, there is some risk involved here, and the reward isn’t that high with the price in this range. However, if you need a cheap option that is going to get shots, Crawford will get you just that.

My pick: McCollum(SG)

Small Forwards:

Best Bet:

LeBron James ($11,600): It’s the Wizards. Lock in LeBron. The King has averaged 70.3 DraftKings points per game in three tries against the serfs (Wizards). Don’t overthink this. Just use LeBron tonight.

Honorable Mention:

Will Barton ($6,800): Barton continues to put up big numbers against everyone not named the Jazz or Raptors with Gary Harris out. Minnesota’s wing defense isn’t terrible, but Barton is plenty good enough to get his shots here. Barton has 65 DraftKings points in 66 minutes against Minnesota this year. That should put Barton right around 5x value.

Joe Ingles ($5,900): Yeah, there’s not much upside with Ingles. I get it. He is mostly a cash game staple at this point. However, Ingles has topped 5x value in seven of the last ten games. He has been over 6x value in three of those. There is enough potential here to use him in GPP formats as well.

Dark Horses:

Jabari Parker ($4,900): Parker was pretty quiet against Boston on Tuesday, but he still played 31 minutes. That is the stat that I am most concerned with. If the Bucks are going to leave Parker out there for 30 minutes a game, he will hit value against most teams. Brooklyn’s defense is not great, but it’s not terrible either. I can see Parker around 30 DraftKings points tonight, which makes him a solid bargain play.

Jae Crowder ($4,300): Crowder always carries some risk around, but he has proven to be a valuable part of the Utah rotation. That keeps his minutes in the high 20’s, so the potential is there in this price range. Crowder is far too volatile to use in cash games though.

My pick: James(SF), Parker(F), Crowder(UTIL)

Power Forwards:

Best Bets:

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,100): Giannis continues to propel the Bucks into the playoffs. However, with his price this high, it’s increasingly more difficult for him to hit value. There is plenty of talent on this team around him, so Giannis doesn’t have to do everything. He still does a lot, but Giannis has only hit value at this price twice in the last seven games.

Paul Millsap ($6,900): On paper, this is a tougher matchup for Millsap. I expect it to be within the game as well. However, Millsap’s price still isn’t at the point where I wouldn’t play him here. Millsap has averaged 48.4 DraftKings points per game in his last three outings, all Denver wins. The Nuggets need him to come up big here again. There is a good chance that he does.

Honorable Mention:

Markieff Morris ($5,700): Morris continues to play a big part for the Wizards up front, and Love is a notoriously weak defender. There is potential here for Morris. He has struggled with his shot against Cleveland this season, which has a lot to do with Love’s height. However, the minutes are still there. If Morris can get the shots to fall, he could be a bargain at this price.

Derrick Favors ($5,100): Favors has averaged 27.8 DraftKings points per game in three tries against the Clippers, and two of those came with Griffin guarding him. Harris is going to be easier to deal with. There is really good potential for Favors here tonight, though he wont put up any really big numbers. Cap your expectations around 6.5x value on the high end.

Dark Horses:

Montrezl Harrell ($4,200): Harrell is little more than a bench scorer, which makes him a risk on any given night. However, the Clippers have been giving him more minutes going down the stretch here. There is solid potential with Harrell, even against the Jazz so long as they keep playing him half the game.

Zach Collins ($3,600): The Blazers have been giving the rookie solid run lately. There is almost no upside here, but with all of these stars on the slate, you may have to go really cheap somewhere. This is one of the safer places to do it, especially if Portland struggles to score without Lillard in there.

My pick: Favors(PF)

Center:

Best Bets:

Nikola Jokic ($10,400): Something has to give here. The Timberwolves have held Jokic to 80.25 DraftKings points in 76 minutes this year. However, Jokic is riding a streak of four games with 58 or more DraftKings points. We all know that Towns is not a great defender, but I have a feeling that Denver may get more going from outside against Minnesota than they have been able to in the recent run Jokic has been on. He could come back to earth here.

Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,800): Towns has 96.75 DraftKings points in two games against Denver this season. There is solid potential here since Towns is the most reliable scorer that Minnesota has with Butler out. However, his production has been all over the place lately. Towns has had a 30 DraftKings point game and an eighty DraftKings point game within the last week.

Honorable Mention:

DeAndre Jordan ($7,200): The Jazz are really good against on the interior, but Jordan has averaged 5x value in his three games against them this year. Why? Rebounding. Jordan’s elite rebounding skills have kept him at value even against this tough interior. That is also the reason that Gobert has struggled some against the Clippers.

Jusuf Nurkic ($6,600): Portland seems to have realized that they are better with Nurkic in there. Nurkic has at least 30 DraftKings points in every game that he has played at least 28 minutes in in the last month. If Nurkic gets the minutes, he produces. Nurkic is averaging 38.4 DraftKings points per game in just 24 minutes per game against Houston this year. There is value here.

Dark Horses:

John Henson ($5,000): Henson has 86 DraftKings points in just 58 minutes against the Nets this year. The Nets are getting a little better on the interior, but not enough for me to think about not playing Henson here. He could be a huge value tonight, especially if Thon Maker sits again.

Jarrett Allen ($4,500): We all know that the Nets are the worst team in the league against centers, but who’s the second worst? That’s right, it’s the Bucks. Allen has 47.25 DraftKings points in 47 minutes against the Bucks this year. Allen is a decent value pick.

My pick: Henson(C)

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