Welcome to the Thursday edition of the FanDuel picks and lineup column. We have a sizable slat with a lot of day baseball so let’s dig in!
We’ve got another very fun day of fantasy baseball on tap and yesterday saw some good and bad. the early slate didn’t go so hot because of weather concerns in the New York area. I had too many concerns with those games being played but I was in the minority. The Yankees were very highly owned and wound up costing us the slate. The lineup scored a 95.6 which didn’t cut the mustard.
The evening was much better with a 149.3. The Rockies stack came through early and then went quiet the rest of the way. Fortunately, those four and Aaron Sanchez were plenty to carry us over the cash line.
Thursday is very similar in that the bulk of the games are early. The main slate only has four games, so it might be a better slate to not play as much money and maybe try your hand at some GPPs. Cash lineups are going to have some pretty serious overlap with one pitcher and a couple hitters. Let’s see what MLB has in store for us today!
Starting Pitcher, High End Spend
Early
David Price, $9,400
.126(14 for111), 25.6 strikeout rate
If you want access to either Jacob DeGrom or Stephen Strasburg, you’re gonna have to venture into the All Day slate.The Nationals offense is just ridiculous right now and DeGrom is risky. Strasburg has an incredible ceiling, but it’s worth noting that the Mets were above average against two of three of the main pitches Strasburg throws.We’re just gonna stick to the Early only and main which is referred to as late today.
The lefty for the Red Sox draws the Rays again in Boston and they were just terrible against lefties in 2017, with a .702 OPS and .303 wOBA. Price diced up the Rays last time, only giving up four hits while striking out five over seven innings. There is a narrative of an offense seeing a pitcher better if they play him twice in a short span. That’s fair but the Rays just can’t hit lefties well enough to make me worried about that.
Late
Robbie Ray,
.462(12 for 26), 3.0 strikeout rate
The last time Ray was in Busch Stadium, he took a line drive off his head. Hopefully, we don’t see a repeat of that scary incident again. Tonight, Ray has incredible upside. He got shelled in his first start of the season but he’s got a bad track record against the Rockies and has severe home/road splits. He had an ERA of 1.86 to go along with a strikeout percentage of 32 and a WHIP of .99. The matchup looks scary on paper but Ray should be the highest scoring pitcher on the slate tonight.
Mid-Range
Early
James Paxton, $8,800
.226(7 for 31), 33.3 strikeout rate
The mid-range is awfully thin for the early only and Price is likely to be chalky. Paxton got whacked his last time out and that may scare some players off. Target Field isn’t the greatest park for pitchers and the Twins haven’t struck out much so far. They also were league average against lefties last year in wOBA at .320. This is a GPP play only because Paxton is capable of dominating any lineup in any park in the league.
Late
The pitching on this four game slate is mighty ugly after ray and he’s going to be highly owned. About the only other option you can deploy with any confidence is Masahiro Tanaka($9,300) against Baltimore. He carries good career numbers against the Orioles, but is pitching in Yankee Stadium. That’s always a little dangerous and Baltimore does have power to spare. It’s a little riskier than normal with Tanaka.
Value
Early
Caleb Smith, $6,000
N/A
This is strictly for the players who want to live dangerously but Smith could be an interesting dart in a large field tournament. He pitched really well against the Cubs in his first start and Philly is having an awful time offensively right now. They’ve not scored 20 runs yet and are top 10 in strikeouts. They did add Carlos Santana, but last year were below league average against the four seam and slider, both of which were Smith’s main pitches in his first start. Don’t be shocked if he gets blasted but he could be a difference maker if he score 37 FanDuel points again.
Late
I’m not going there at all. If you want to roll the dice on Homer Bailey against the Pirates, that’s about the only route worth taking. Even then, the odds are he’s going to get beat up a little.