When we last checked in with Bosnian guard Dzanan Musa in November, he was just starting to find his way into first round big boards and mocks. The 19-year old Cedevita scorer had just finished lighting up Eurocup opponent Unics Kazan for 20 points and 18 minutes, and the takeaway from that performance was that Musa probably should be a lottery-level prospect by the year’s end. He really struggled on defense, but his offensive creation ability appeared so high that he might have potential as an elite bench scorer.
Flash forward to April, and Musa’s talent has secured him a place in the lottery conversation. He ranks 14th in the Step Back’s latest Big Board, and his performance has been pretty consistent from the beginning to the end of the year. Now that Cedevita has been eliminated from Eurocup and the Adriatic League playoffs, we have our sample for Musa. Outside of some World Cup qualifying games for Bosnia and Herzegovina, we’ve probably seen the last of Musa on the court before the draft. However, the question of whether his offensive talent outweighs his defensive holes has not been answered. The problem with Musa’s consistency is that he’s been about the same player on offense and defense in 2017-18 — that is to say, he still looks like an excellent initiator, but also looks like a turnstile on defense. How Musa is going to fit on an NBA team is a challenging question, because his offensive game has to outweigh the negative effect he’s going to have on team defense.
Guard defense isn’t the biggest deal in terms of overall value. Backcourt players, particularly primary initiator types, can get some slack in terms of how much value they have to bring to be effective, because their influence on their team’s scoring output is so high. However, there is a point of no return for how bad a defender can be before those offensive contributions are outweighed, and Musa is pretty firmly in that camp at this point.
The numbers paint a pretty bad picture — as Cedevita was 7.1 points per 100 possessions worse defensively in 323 minutes with Musa on the floor than when he was sitting, per Overbasket. Now, their offense also dipped significantly when Musa sat (97.6 ORtg to 91.3), but that’s a pretty stark drop, from about the level of Kazan’s 4th-ranked Eurocup defense to the level of Paris Levallois’ 17th-ranked defense. Unlike many international prospects, Musa was playing a regular role for the Zagreb side, so this isn’t really a sample-size issue. Musa was a drain on his team’s defense this season, and if you watch him play defense, it immediately becomes clear why this is happening.
Musa is in the top corner at the start of this clip (in the mask — he broke his nose over the summer), and you get a pretty good representation of his activity level on defense. Off-ball, Musa is less defending, and more waiting to get the ball back. He routinely wanders off into nowhere, and is rarely seen in a stance. Any NBA team is going to see this habit and just back-cut him to death.
Musa has a decent frame for a guard — he’s 6-foot-9 and while he has a negative wingspan, that still puts him at 6-foot-8.5 — but that almost doesn’t really matter because of how bad his technique is. He’s essentially a turnstile defending on-ball, opening up with ease and giving up on plays when his opponent gets the smallest amount of separation.
He has the footspeed to navigate pick-and-roll, but the will to do so just isn’t there.
The one area he does show signs of life in is rotations, where he more willingly closes out on opponents, especially in close or big games. The technique on those closeouts isn’t good enough, but we’re just looking for a baseline of effort at this point.
But again, that effort isn’t consistent. Too often, this is the rotation you’re getting from Musa instead.
It’s almost not even worth discussing what Musa’s ceiling could be on this end. The combination of low effort and poor awareness on this end put him in such a hole that it’s doubtful he even becomes a Kyrie Irving-level defender, who you can at least put in the right spots and get steals on occasion. He’s shown some flashes of some skill as a one-on-one defender, but nothing consistent enough to rely on. He’s not even a good rebounder despite being a 6-foot-9 guard — a 10.1 percent rebound rate isn’t terrible, but if he’s playing like this on defense, he better at least have Troy Brown’s motor on the glass.
There’s no way around this — Musa has real potential to be the worst defender in the NBA at some point in his career, and that’s a very big red flag even if his offensive game translates at a high level. He’ll need to more fully flesh out his promising offensive value to even be a rotation player. However, the reason he’s being considered a lottery-level talent is because he absolutely can make that happen.
Musa’s frame is a little thin at this point, but his biggest improvement as a scorer has been his ability to get into the lane, draw contact, and finish. As his body matures, he’s gotten better at finishing in traffic, and he drew 6.6 free throw attempts per 40 minutes this season. His finishing craft is strong, and it’s helped him post a 61.8 true shooting percentage despite shooting just 33.6 percent from 3 this year. Here, he takes the ball right at fellow draft prospect Goga Bitadze, and draws the and-one:
Musa’s never going to power through anyone, but his touch around the rim has helped him compensate to this point. He’s doing a better job of getting into the body of the rim protector, and then delivering a nice floater over the top.
He’s also adept at getting to the rim, which highlights the athleticism that he’s still developing. Musa isn’t an above-average athlete by any means, but he’s very skilled at snaking through a perimeter defense and finding his way to the rim. In the NBA’s spacing, he should be able to find the rim consistently out of the pick-and-roll.
Musa’s real draw as a primary initiator comes from his pull-up game, which is consistently improving, and where he’s the most comfortable on the ball. The diversity of Musa’s pull-up game is exciting. He’s comfortable pulling from NBA range:
After stopping on a dime:
And off screens:
He’s also a pretty good passer, further diversifying his on-ball skill set. The outside shot is the main threat, but if he gets by his defender, he has a lot of crafty moves that can set up assists like this one.
Musa’s on-ball skill set gives off Jamal Crawford vibes, which is pretty promising. His ideal role is probably coming in off the bench for 20-25 minutes a game, commanding second units, and carrying an astronomical usage while being supported by role players. When the starters are in, he can still mix in with his outside shooting. Musa’s 3-point percentage has historically been low due to the number of pull-up 3s he takes, but he’s comfortable shooting on the move, and there’s definite room for expansion of this part of his game in a lesser role.
Is that worth a lottery pick though? That’s the ultimate question. Musa definitely has the makings of a thrilling offensive player, but he’s always going to have the issue of his defense hanging him back. He’ll need significant investment from the team that draft’s him into just the very basics of how to make reads, and that’s if they can get buy-in from him at an effort level. Even then, it might not even be worth it, because there are questions about his shooting consistency and willingness to accept a smaller role that could linger over him. As we’ve seen with players like Alexey Shved and Sergey Karasev in the past, that knowledge that Musa’s almost assuredly headed for stardom in Euroleague if he flames out of the NBA may influence how he approaches playing a small role, and that may make that buy-in harder to obtain.
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Musa should end up being a very polarizing prospect in NBA front offices this year. On one hand, you have the player who will be the last high-level primary initiator on the board, which could entice a team like the Clippers or Bulls who could definitely use that extra scoring juice. But at the same time, that comes with the knowledge that he’s going to end up getting exposed frequently for his defensive deficiencies, and if he doesn’t bring that same value that a player like Isaiah Thomas or James Harden brings on the offensive end, that could really limit his ability to contribute to winning basketball. How that evaluation shakes out will make Musa one of the bigger wild cards in the middle of the first round.