DraftKings Early MLB Picks April 7: Which ace should we use?
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings Early MLB Picks April 7: Which ace should we use?
We have yet another split slate early in the MLB season. There are eight early games, which makes this larger slate of the day. There are several ways to get exposure to every game today, but the two 6:05 Eastern games are only available in the all day or the turbo tournaments. They don’t fall into the early or late.
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There was one game rained out again yesterday in San Francisco. None of the day games are threatened by rain, so we should be good to go.
We will provide you with several options to build your lineup here. Want to spend all your money on pitchers and play bargain bats? We will highlight who is worth the money. Want to punt arms and pay up for the big boppers? We can help you with that as well, and everything in between!
These tips are based mostly on past performance. This is a nice tool for building a lineup, but should not be the only pieces of information you use. Stacking against a bad pitcher is always a good idea!
For you first time players, if you would like a free $20 in DraftKings dollars, use this link for the referral bonus with your first deposit of $5 or more! Then continue reading for tips on how to turn those DraftKings dollars into more!
Next: DraftKings Pitcher Plays
Top Tier:
Zack Greinke ($11,100): The Cardinals have solid stats against Greinke, but the strikeout potential here is enormous. The Cards are hitting .248 with five homers and 14 runs in 105 at bats, but he has racked up 32 strikeouts. 11 of those are by Dexter Fowler alone! Greinke is 5-2 with a 2.42 ERA in seven career starts at Busch Stadium. That’s why Greinke is so expensive.
Gio Gonzalez ($10,300): The Mets are only hitting .226 with five homers and 14 RBI in 168 at bats against Gonzalez. His 36 strikeouts aren’t usually enough to have Gio priced in the elite tier, but there is huge win potential here against the Mets. If Gio can limit the damage, he could be in line for pretty big numbers.
Jose Berrios ($10,000): Many are going to jump on Berrios due to potential and his shutout in his first start of the season. The Mariners are 4-18 with two runs and only three strikeouts against Berrios so far. The sky is the limit for Berrios, and what we saw this spring and in his first start says we may see his potential earlier than we thought.
Middle Tier:
Yu Darvish ($9,700): Most days Darvish would be a top option, but here he is priced below elite. It’s easy to understand after his rough opening day start. However, the Brewers are hitting only .226 with two homers and five RBI in 53 at bats against the Brewers. The 15 strikeouts are what could put Darvish over the top. He has the strikeout potential that Gio lacks. There is still some risk here though.
Rick Porcello ($8,400): Porcello has allowed a .268 average with seven homers and 19 runs to the Rays in 198 at bats. Pedestrian numbers. Same with the 31 strikeouts. His price is inflated based on win probability against the rebuilding Rays, but I prefer more of a sure thing. I would much rather roll the dice with his mound opponent for $2,400 less.
Lucas Giolito ($7,100): Giolito pitched pretty well against Detroit last year, surrendering three hits in seven innings, but he only struck out four. The good news is that the White Sox have hit Michael Fulmer well. There is good potential here for Giolito.
Bargain Pitchers:
Jake Faria ($6,000): I’m surprised that Faria is this cheap. Faria pitched well once he made it to the majors last season. He has a 3.38 ERA in 15 career starts. The current Red Sox are hitting just .116 in 43 at bats against Faria with just one run and seven strikeouts. There is not a lot of strikeout upside here, and Faria has never pitched at Fenway Park. However, he is facing human pitching machine Rick Porcello. There is pretty good upside here if you are willing to take a risk.
Steven Matz ($5,800): You have to have a tough stomach for this one, but the Nationals are only hitting .185 in 65 at bats against Matz, but the do have two homers and three RBI. The thing that really sets this apart is the 14 strikeouts that Matz has notched on Washington. There some big potential here, but his first start didn’t give a lot of hope.
Top Tier:
Jose Abreu is 5-14 with two walks, a double, a homer, two runs scored, and four RBI in his career against Michael Fulmer. Welington Castillo is a bit higher priced for a catcher, but he is 3-3 with a RBI against Fulmer. Matt Davidson is 2-6, but has no counting stats.
You have to like Kris Bryant here. Bryant is 11-28(.393) with two doubles, a triple, a homer, a steal, six runs scored, and five RBI in his career against Zach Davies. Keep an eye on the status of Anthony Rizzo. If he is out, Victor Caratini is 1-3 with a solo homer off of Davies, and he would be the one starting for Rizzo.
Middle Tier:
Anthony Rendon is 3-12 with a homer and two RBI in his career against Steven Matz. He is about the only National that has any success against Matz.
Yonder Alonso is 6-16 with a walk, a homer, and six RBI in his career against Ian Kennedy. Kennedy had a good start to open the season, but this is Cleveland. This offense is very good, and has hit Kennedy well over his career.
Bargain Shoppers:
Jason Castro is 3-7 with a walk, a double, a run scored, and a RBI against Mike Leake. Eduardo Escobar has a walk and a RBI double. The Twins as a whole have very little past experience here against Leake, but he is not that strong of a pitcher. Leake does have the advantage of taking the mound in a pitcher’s park today.
Matt Carpenter is 8-24 with two walks, two doubles, two homers, two solo homers, and five runs scored in his career against Zack Greinke.
I’m pretty surprised that the Orioles are this cheap against Sonny Gray. Danny Valencia is 2-3 with a solo homer off of Gray. Caleb Joseph is a nice catcher option. Joseph is 4-11 with three doubles, two runs scored, and two RBI off of Gray. Chris Davis is off to a slow start, but he is 4-14 with two walks, a double, four runs scored, and a RBI against Gray. Manny Machado, fresh off his huge game yesterday, has worse stats than the rest. Machado is 4-15 with two walks, two runs scored, and three RBI off of Gray.
Top Tier:
Didi Gregorius is off to a fast start anyway, and he has absolutely clobbered Chris Tillman in his career. Gregorius is 11-20 with two walks, five doubles, a triple, a homer, six runs scored, and four RBI in his career against Tillman. Neil Walker is 2-3 with a walk, a double, a run scored, and two RBI in his career against Chris Tillman.
Jose Ramirez is 5-16 with three doubles, a homer, two runs scored, and two RBI in his career against Ian Kennedy. Jason Kipnis is only 5-21(.238) against Kennedy, but he has two walks, three doubles, two homers, four runs scored, and three RBI in his career against Kennedy.
Brian Dozier is only 1-6 in his career against Mike Leake, but that hit is a three run homer.
Middle Tier:
Tim Beckham is 6-13(.462) with a walk, a double, two homers, four runs scored, and six RBI in his career against Sonny Gray. Gray may get away with this though since Beckham is in a slump to start the season. Jonathan Schoop is 3-8 with a run scored, but that’s it for counting stats.
Yolmer Sanchez is off to a good start anyway, and he is 3-5 with a walk, a double, two runs scored, and a RBI in his career against Michael Fulmer.
Look out for Addison Russell. Russell is 5-18(.278) with a walk, a double, a steal, a run scored, and four RBI in his career against Zach Davies. Javier Baez and Tommy La Stella have also hit Davies well if you need to save in the middle infield.
Bargain Shoppers:
If you believe in BvP stats, Brad Miller will be in your lineup. Miller is 11-40(.275) with two walks, four doubles, five homers, eight runs scored, and nine RBI in his career against Rick Porcello.
Kolten Wong could be worth a look here. Wong is 4-13 with two doubles and a run scored in his career against Zach Greinke.
Alcides Escobar is 8-25(.320) with two walks, a double, a homer, a steal, three runs scored, and three RBI in his career against Trevor Bauer. Tyan Goins is 2-8 with a walk, a homer, two runs scored, and three RBI against Bauer.
If Eric Sogard starts for the Brewers, you may want him in your lineup. Sogard is 5-16(.312) with six walks, two doubles, two steals, four runs scored, and a RBI in his career against Yu Darvish.
Jose Reyes and Wilmer Flores are really cheap, and they have hit Gio Gonzalez well. Reyes is 7-19(.368) with a walk, two doubles, two solo homers, and seven runs scored off of Gonzalez. Flores is 5-23(.217) with two walks, a homer, and two RBI against Gio.
Next: Top Outfield Plays
Top Tier:
Andrew Benintendi and Mookie Betts are going to be popular picks against Faria, especially since they have three of the five Red Sox hits against Faria. J.D. Martinez is only 1-6 with four strikeouts though.
Aaron Judge is 2-5 with a walk, three runs scored, and a solo homer off of Tillman. Look for more of the same here. Brett Gardner is 12-45(.267) with eight walks, three doubles, a homer, six runs scored, and five RBI in his career against Tillman.
Kyle Schwarber is 3-12 with a walk, two solo homers, and three runs scored in his career against Zach Davies. There is stack bait all over this slate. Davies is definitely one of them.
A.J. Pollock is 3-7 with three walks, a double, a homer, two runs scored, and three RBI in his career against Michael Wacha. Pollock has been good so far this year. If he can stay healthy, he is going to be in a lot of DFS lineups this year.
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Middle Tier:
Adam Jones didn’t come through for us last night, but he is on here again since he is 5-14 with a double, a homer, two runs scored, and three RBI in his career against Sonny Gray.
Yoenis Cespedes is 7-13(.538) with two walks, a double, two solo homers, and six runs scored in his career against Gio Gonzalez. He is about the only Met besides the cheap infielders that I would trust against Gio.
Marcell Ozuna is 4-11 with a walk, three homers, four runs scored, and four RBI in his career against Zack Greinke.
Bargain Shoppers:
Both Hernan Perez and Christian Yelich have hit solo homers off of Yu Darvish. Not only that, but they are 3-7 off of him as well.
Cheap outfielders! Cheap outfielders for sale here! Carlos Gomez is 2-6 with a double and a solo homer against Rick Porcello. Denard Span is 14-38(.368) with two walks, a steal, a run scored, and four RBI off of Porcello. Kevin Keirmaier is only 10-45, but he has scored six runs. All of them are $3,200 or less.
Rajai Davis is 9-23(.391) with a homer, two steals, five runs scored, and three RBI in his career against Ian Kennedy.
Leury Garcia is really cheap, and he is 3-9 with a run scored and five RBI off of Michael Fulmer.
Michael Taylor may be the guy to go with against Steven Matz. Taylor is 3-10 with two walks and a solo homer against Matz.
Next: Main Slate DraftKings Picks
Good luck out there, and check out our picks for FanDuel baseball, along with our PGA picks. We also have the NBA still winding out the season, but DFS is still going strong!