DraftKings Early NBA Picks April 8: Is Simmons a safe play?
There are seven NBA games on our Sunday. The 2:30 pm Detroit/Memphis tipoff is off on its own little island, so we have three early and three evening games. The Memphis/Detroit tilt is only available in showdown formats, but there is plenty of hidden value with Memphis essentially running out a G-League team.
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The money line was right at 300 tonight, which was actually down a bit from last night. I checked in with a solid 306.75. Lack of value from Darius Miller hurt the bottom line.
The winning lineup was way down from last night at 362.5. He built around the same core as I did except he went further with the Pelicans stack adding Rondo and Holiday.
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Ben Simmons ($10,200): Simmons put up 51.25 DraftKings points against Dallas earlier this season. There is some potential here as we have seen Simmons put up more than 60 DraftKings points twice in the last four games. The Sixers are red hot right now even after almost blowing a huge lead against the Cavs. Look for that to continue.
Terry Rozier ($7,500): Boston has been involved in a few lopsided games lately, so Rozier’s minutes have been limited. I’m guessing that Atlanta will be a blowout as well. Therefore, using Rozier or anyone else in green is a sizeable risk today. Still, Rozier should put up solid numbers before this game hits the skids.
Darren Collison ($5,400): Collison was ice cold from the floor against Toronto, which resulted in a far below average night from Collison. He has performed well against Charlotte so far this year, and with the Hornets using a bunch of kids on the court, Collison should have no issues hitting value before he leaves the game.
Malik Monk ($5,200): Monk has been outstanding after Kemba Walker checked out. Walker is still playing around 25 minutes a game, but this is Monk’s team right now. Monk has 73.75 DraftKings points over the last two games. That makes Monk a very strong play in all formats lately.
Tyler Dorsey ($4,300): Dorsey has destroyed value over the last three games. Taylor is still picking up quite a few minutes, but the focus has shifted to Dorsey. This is a tougher matchup against Boston, but 93 DraftKings points over the last three games for this price can’t be ignored.
Markelle Fultz ($3,800): Fultz has put up some big numbers in very small minutes at times. However, he is still not a very consistent option. That said, this game should be a blowout, and there is a chance that they will turn Fultz loose a little more than usual. At this price, it’s worth checking it out.
My pick: Simmons(PG), Dorsey(G)
Taurean Prince ($6,600): Prince carries a lofty 31.4 DraftKings point average per game against Boston into this one. That means that Prince did well agianst Boston prior to his huge March. There is serious potential here. Like maybe even 6x value potential.
Jaylen Brown ($6,200): Brown had a monster game against the Bulls on Friday, putting up a career high 32 points en route to 41.5 DraftKings points. With all of the Boston injuries, there is a big chance that Brown is given the keys to the offense again. He could be a sizeable bargain tonight.
J.J. Redick ($5,500): Redick has been on fire lately, racking up 73.5 DraftKings points over the last two games. He was the reason that the Sixers built such a sizeable lead against the Cavs. He could play the same role against Dallas, except Philly wont blow the lead this time.
Marco Belinelli ($4,900): Belinelli has been a huge asset for the Sixers’ second team. He kept the long range barrage going when Redick got rested. This could be a lethal punch in the post season, so expect the Sixers to keep the usage on Redick and Belinelli what it has been over the last couple of weeks. Which has resulted in several nights over value for both of them.
Lance Stephenson ($4,000): Lost in the blowout loss to Toronto is the shift happening with the Pacers right now. Stephenson played 27 minutes in that game. Oladipo and all of the other starters played less than 25 minutes. Was is the blowout? Maybe, but Indiana’s playoff slot is pretty much secure, and it appears as though they are going to play the bench as much or more than the starters for the last few games. That could turn Stephenson into a really good value.
Jabari Bird ($3,300): Boston has had so many injuries, that Bird even got on the floor for half the game against the Bulls. He put up 26.75 DraftKings points in that one. He has the defense required to get minutes for Boston. There could be potential here, but there is some risk involved as well.
My pick: Monk(SG)
Robert Covington ($6,700): Covington is still getting the minutes, but with the onslaught by Redick and Belinelli, he hasn’t been as much of a force on offense as you would think. That said, his trademark defense is still there, so Covington still has a nice floor.
Ersan Ilyasova ($6,000): Ilyasova still ripped up the Cavs even with Saric back in the fold. Saric was ice cold from the field, but what this really showed is just how important Ilyasova has become to this front line with Embiid out.
Damion Lee ($4,900): Lee continues to get good run with the Hawks, but there is risk here against Boston. Even the backups for the Celtics play defense. It wont be like Lee can just go nuts on the Boston second unit. However, with him playing enough minutes, there is still potential value here on a short slate.
Dorian Finney-Smith ($4,400): Finney-Smith is being given all the run he can handle right now, and it is paying off with pretty good fantasy value. Hell, his initials are even DFS! With 62.5 DraftKings points over the last two games, we pretty much have to play him.
My pick: Finney-Smith(SF)
Dario Saric ($6,500): Saric had one of the worst shooting nights of his career in his return to the lineup against Cleveland. The thing to take away from this is that Saric still played pretty good minutes. With the playoffs coming up, the last thing the Sixers want besides an injured Embiid is a cold Saric. They are going to give him a chance to shoot his way out of this slump.
Dwight Powell ($5,600): Powell is going to keep getting minutes for Dallas up front, but as has been the case for the last month or so, his production is going to continue to be inconsistent at best. You are taking a risk with Powell right now, but that’s all DFS at this point of the season is anyway.
John Collins ($5,200): It’s hard to ignore what Collins has been able to do over the last few weeks. He has been over 20 DraftKings points in the last 12 games, and over 30 in seven of those. I would trust him here, even against Boston.
Johnathan Motley ($5,100): Meet part of the reason for the inconsistency of Powell. The Mavs are using Motley a lot more right now. He has 76 DraftKings points in 81 minutes over the last two games. Ride this wave of huge minutes with Motley for the next few games.
Amir Johnson ($4,000): There isn’t much not to like about Johnson here. Johnson is still starting with Embiid out. He has been right around 5x value the whole time. There is not a lot of upside here, but Johnson is a solid value pick.
My pick: Motley(PF), Collins(F)
Dwight Howard ($9,700): I’m not sure what Charlotte is up to. Howard still keeps producing a high level – high enough to hit value – despite Charlotte well on the way to the lottery. While Walker and Batum have seen pretty sharp decreases in minutes, Howard has only seen a moderate decrease. And his production hasn’t dropped at all. I consider Howard to be a pretty big risk since he could take a nose dive at any minute, but for now, he is still hitting 5x value.
Greg Monroe ($5,900): So all it took for Boston to see what they have in Monroe is locking up the two seed? Seriously, what is going on here? I think we all knew that Monroe could be a huge asset in Boston. Now they are finally realizing it. Monroe is a nice mid range play tonight.
Dewayne Dedmon ($5,300): Dedmon looked good on Friday despite a rib injury. Most though Atlanta would sit him. Well, the Hawks want to see how this team lines up for next year. That means Dedmon should be good for 30 minutes a game until the end of the season.
Willy Hernangomez ($4,200): Willy has at least four games scoring in double figures, and has hauled in no less than eight rebounds in that span. The Hornets are giving Hernangomez run here at the expense of Williams and Kaminsky. He is the future. Look for the run of Hernangomez to continue for the next few games.
My pick: Howard(C), Monroe(UTIL)
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