DraftKings NBA Picks April 7: Harden or Westbrook?

DraftKings NBA Picks April 7: Harden or Westbrook?

We only have six games on our NBA Saturday. As has become the normal, the earlier tip between Denver and the Clippers is exiled to showdown mode. So our main slate has five games. Three of the games are between playoff bound teams. The Bucks are also playoff bound, but they get the Knicks. The good part about that is the Knicks have had a steady rotation for a while now. There isn’t much for value here, and there is plenty of star power. How do we build this?

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The money line was huge last night at 312.75 DraftKings points. I had one of my better scores of the year at 333, but it could have been much better if my Suns value picks came through. LeBron, A.D., and Grizzlies were a great foundation.

The winning lineup was the highest of the season at 415 DraftKings points. He built around Simmons and LeBron with great value from Mirotic, Jaylen Brown, Monk, and Monroe.

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Point Guards:

Best Bets:

Russell Westbrook ($11,500): Westbrook has three straight games of more than 69 DraftKings points. He is propelling the Thunder into the playoffs right now. This game is more important for Oklahoma City than Houston, but the fact remains that Westbrook only has 107 DraftKings points in two games with the Rockets. That leaves him under value at this price. With other elite options available, I’m okay fading Westy here. Of course, there is the chance that he keeps up his elite level of scoring and hits 6x value again.

Damian Lillard ($8,400): Lillard, like many others, has struggled against the Spurs this season. However, it’s tough to ignore what Lillard has done lately. He gets the benefit of coming at a discount against the Spurs. Lillard has not been under 42 DraftKings points since March 20th. There is solid potential here, just don’t expect a big game from him.

Honorable Mention:

Rajon Rondo ($6,300): Rondo is not the most consistent guy in the world, but his passing prowess approaches elite. That keeps him near value most of the time. The Warriors have held him to 50 DraftKings points over two games, but Rondo should have an easier time not having to deal with Curry. There are far more options I dislike than ones I like. Rondo is at least a serviceable option.

D’Angelo Russell ($6,100): It’s hard to know what to expect from Russell right now. The Nets are out of it, but want to see what Russell can offer. If he is invested in the game, that is. For now, that seems to be an isolated incident, but Russell is still not quite up to the level that he was a couple of weeks ago. Facing the Bulls could alleviate that problem.

Dark Horses:

Quinn Cook ($5,700): Wow, Quinn is too cheap here. The Pelicans have allowed the most fantasy points to point guards. Yes, they are even worse than the Suns and Bulls now. Cook has only turned in one truly bad game since Curry went down. I will be shocked if Cook doesn’t hit at least 6x value tonight.

Jerian Grant ($4,400): I would rather take a chance on Grant than Cameron Payne right now. Payne has struggled to get anything going, and Grant has outplayed him in limited minutes. The Bulls aren’t going to change anything because they don’t want to chance accidentally winning a game, but Grant is a safer play right now for DFS purposes, even though he has no upside.

My pick: Cook(PG)

Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

James Harden ($10,800): Harden has outplayed Westbrook head to head this year. harden has 121.25 DraftKings points in the two meetings. That puts him just over 5x value. Like I mentioned though, the Thunder need this game a lot worse than the Rockets do. Harden is still capable of putting up big numbers though.

Jrue Holiday ($7,900): Holiday has averaged 40.8 DraftKings points against the Warriors in three games this year. He remains just about the only threat from the outside. After a mid March swoon, Holiday seems to be back on track with five straight games over 5x value. If you don’t feel like spending up for Harden, Holiday is a great fallback option.

Honorable Mention:

Khris Middleton ($7,700): Usually, Middleton is consistently good and not much to write home about. However, Middleton has more than 44 DraftKings points in three of the last four games. The Bucks are leaning heavily on his outside scoring right now, so there is no reason that he can’t keep this up at the Bucks make a late push for better seeding.

Klay Thompson ($6,600): Thompson doesn’t put up huge numbers against anyone except the Kings, but he has put up over 5x value at his price against the Pelicans this year. He is a solid cash game play at this point with sufficient upside for GPP usage on a short slate.

Dark Horses:

Allen Crabbe ($5,000): Crabbe has 91 DraftKings points in three games against Chicago this year. The Nets still run about ten guys out there, but they all get the same amount of minutes. This whole rotation is a little bit risky because of that, but Crabbe was the hot hand on Thursday. Let’s see if that continues.

Sean Kilpatrick ($4,500): There is revenge narrative here, if it matters for bench players. The Bulls are still very thin at guard, so expect Kilpatrick to see plenty of run. He has put up 76.5 DraftKings points in the last three games. There is solid value here.

My pick: Harden(SG)

Small Forwards:

Best Bets:

Kevin Durant ($11,000): The Pelicans have held KD well under value this year, but Durant has four straight games of more than 50 DraftKings points. I see him with a solid floor tonight with Curry still out. Durant is the heart of the offense right now, and is a solid threat to hit 60 or more.

Paul George ($7,400): George is a constant scoring threat, so he is always somewhere close to value. If the Rockets can hold Westbrook again, George is a threat for over 5x value. Houston does well defending the forward positions, so I don’t expect big things from George, but he will still score enough to help your lineup.

Honorable Mention:

Jabari Parker ($5,600): Parker is always going to be in play at this price because of his significant upside. More than that, he allows the Bucks to rest stars in a game like this because he can take over by himself. We may see a few less minutes out of Giannis and Middleton if this game gets out of hand, but I would bet Parker still plays at least 30. That makes him a solid mid range pick once again.

E’Twaun Moore ($5,000): The production is inconsistent from Moore, but he minutes are not. He’s playing at least 30. You can count on that. He is a pure shooter who can get hot at any given time. That always makes him worth a look in GPP formats with this price this low.

Dark Horses:

David Nwaba ($4,600): The Bulls are still starting Nwaba with all of the injuries to their guards, and he has been a constant source of 25-30 DraftKings points. At this price on a short slate, you can do much worse.

Damyean Dotson ($3,100): The Knicks decided to sit Beastley, and Dotson stepped in with a double-double, and scored 30 points. At the very last that should afford him good minutes tonight. The Knicks have no reason to rush Beasley back out there. They may as well see what the have in Dotson. The good part is that the Knicks play early, so we will know what’s going on before the lineups lock.

My pick: Nwaba(G), Dotson(SF), Moore(UTIL)

Power Forwards:

Best Bets:

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,300): Giannis is about right at value in three games against the Knicks this season. He has only been below 44 DraftKings points once in the last month. Even though his teammates are doing more to help with the scoring load, Giannis is such a good contributor in every category that he is still getting value or close to it every game.

LaMarcus Aldridge ($9,300): Aldridge continues to carry the Spurs on his back. He now has at least 45 DraftKings points in 11 of the last 12 games. LMA may actually be a bargain at this price. His average against Portland this season sits at 46 DraftKings points per game. He is about as solid as you can get, not to mention the consistency he has lately.

Honorable Mention:

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson ($6,700): RHJ has struggled against the Bulls this year, but aside from the Philly game, Hollis-Jefferson has at least 30 DraftKings points in all but one game in the last month. The Nets are riding him down the stretch in what is a job audition for next year. RHJ is passing with flying colors.

Lauri Markkanen ($6,500): Markkanen keeps rattling off games in the 30’s for DraftKings points. He doesn’t offer much upside right now, but he is a cash game building block right now. On a short slate, he is performing well enough to throw him in a GPP lineup as well.

Dark Horses:

Nikola Mirotic ($5,100): The Pelicans have looked very good over the last two games with Mirotic starting at the four and A.D. in the middle. The Pelicans will likely leave the slow footed Okafor on the bench again tonight, leaving Mirotic to shoot away again. Mirotic put up 44.5 DraftKings points in just 27 minutes against the Warriors in his only game against them this year. There is serious value potential here.

Trevor Ariza ($4,700): Ariza’s production has been all over the board for much of the season, but he is averaging 29.3 DraftKings points per game against the Thunder in three games this season. Ariza isn’t normally a guy I rush to put in my lineup, but there is good value potential with his price this low. He is going to play at least 30 minutes and is a strong defender. If he gets involved in the offense, it’s all gravy after the defense.

My pick: Mirotic(PF)

Center:

Best Bets:

Anthony Davis ($11,400): Davis likes heading to the southwest. He punishes the Suns. He does well against the L.A. teams. Even Golden State can’t hold the Brow down. Davis has 125 DraftKings points in two games against the Warriors this season. The Pelicans are still fighting for their playoff lives. Expect Davis to get significant run against a weak interior. That makes him a strong option once again.

Jusuf Nurkic ($6,300): On paper, this is a tough matchup for Nurkic, but he has 61.25 DraftKings points in 56 minutes against the Spurs this year. Nurkic is a solid bet if you can’t afford to pay up at center tonight. This is a shallow position with a steep drop after A.D.

Honorable Mention:

Bobby Portis ($6,000): The Bulls have been running with Portis at center some lately, and that is only expanding his value. Portis has at least 27 DraftKings points in eight of the last ten games. He makes for a solid mid range pick, and has huge upside against the Nets inside if he plays center again.

Kyle O’Quinn ($5,900): It doesn’t look like Enes Kanter will be back tonight either, so it’s time to roll with O’Quinn again. He has three straight double doubles with more than 32 DraftKings points in each game with Kanter out. O’Quinn is a terrific value play again tonight.

Dark Horses:

Jarrett Allen ($4,900): Allen put up 37.75 DraftKings points in his only game against the Bulls this year. That marked one of Allen’s best games of the season. He very well could do it again. the Nets are committed to playing Allen about 30 minutes per game, but his production has been sporadic.

Cristiano Felicio ($4,300): Felicio has struggled some lately, but it likely has something to do with the quality of opponents. He should be starting at center again, and is playing the Nets. There is some big upside here.

My pick: Davis(PF), Felicio(C)

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