DFS Golf: Getting Up and Down – RBC Heritage

DFS Golf: Getting Up and Down – RBC Heritage

Welcome to the Getting Up and Down DFS Golf article! My name is Josh Thomas and you can find me on Twitter at @dfsupnorth and in this weekly article we will be looking at a few golfers trending up and a few trending down to help you get up and down in Daily Fantasy Golf! The focus of this article is for DFS Golf players who are only playing a few lineups each week. Information will be relevant for those who play 150 unique lineups, but the main goal is to help the casual DFS Golf player see some green screens.

We made it, we have arrived at Luke Donald Chalk Week! Before we get to that, lets take a look at how the Masters’ played out. Patrick Reed was able to hold off a charging Jordan Spieth and Rickie Fowler to don the green jacket and win his first career major. His ball striking was excellent all week and as we said, the winner needs to crush the Par 5’s and before Sunday he had Birdie or Better on all of them, including two eagles on Saturday on holes #13 and #15. Reed didn’t have great course history coming in, but he looked like someone who contends here every year, rarely missing a putt and every time he made a bogey, followed it up with not one, but often two birdies. If you read our article for the Master’s hopefully you jumped on Spieth and Paul Casey as both had unbelievable Sundays shooting 64 and 65 respectively. Spieth had 107.5 DK points while Casey ended up with 79 after struggling through the first three rounds with his putter. Our other pick Sergio Garcia, pulled a Roy McAvoy on hole 15 on Thursday and put 5 balls into the water en route to a 13 and he was never able to recover. Not what I was expecting out of Sergio, but that is sometimes what you get. I was able to still min cash a few lineups with Sergio in them and then ones I pivoted from Sergio to Henrik Stenson were profitable as well. Casey was just under 10x value, while Spieth hit 10x which is exactly what we need to have high performing GPP lineups .

Our Trending Down players last week were Phil Mickelson, Bubba Watson, and Tiger Woods. All three had projected high ownership, with Bubba and Tiger both ending up over 24% and Phil at 18% in the Milly Maker. Phil had a solid Sunday to salvage a poor week and came in with 76 DK Points, While Tiger struggled to make birdies on the weekend and ended up with 62.5 DK points. Both were great fades, at their price points they needed to finish in the top 5 to make value. Bubba had an excellent week, and as I wrote, he was strictly an ownership fade, but he achieved 10x value, which makes him a member of the optimal lineup at his price point.

HILTON HEAD ISLAND, SC – APRIL 16: Wesley Bryan celebrates with the trophy after winning the 2017 RBC Heritage at Harbour Town Golf Links during the final round on April 16, 2017 in Hilton Head Island, South Carolina. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images)

We are officially in jacket season, with the winners of tournaments donning a jacket as part of their prize, and this week we have the Tartan Jacket. No joke, my grandparents had carpet with this pattern in their basement. Ugly jackets aside, lets take a look at the course and what key stats we are going to be looking for this week.

DFS Golf: Course Breakdown – RBC Heritage

The RBC Heritage golf tournament takes place at the Harbor Town Golf Links in Hilton Head Island, South Carolina. The course was designed by Pete Dye with the assistance of Jack Nicklaus in 1969 and is considered by some to be his best design. The Par 71 measures just under 7200 yards making it one of the shorter courses the tour plays all year. It has 11 par 4’s, 3 par 5’s, and 4 par 3’s. Placing your tee shots in the right areas is essential this week as there are ten holes that have the possibility of blocking out your approach shot to the green due to overhanging tree limbs. Players must also deal with the wind off the sound coming home on 17 and 18 and those two holes can often be the difference maker in the tournament.

One particularly interesting aspect of Harbor Town is the size of its greens. The average green on tour measures about 6,600 square feet, while the greens here measure around 3,700 square feet. Not only are they small, but five are guarded by water hazards, making ball striking and approach shot accuracy essential. These postage stamp greens are Bermuda, and we have seen players with positive Bermuda grass splits play well here in the past, so we will take that into consideration for our model this week.

One thing interesting to note is that bomber’s have not had much success here. The past 10 winners here are Wes Bryan, Brendan Grace, Jim Furyk, Matt Kuchar, Graeme McDowell, Carl Petterson, Brandt Snedeker, Furyk, Brian Gay, and Boo Weekley. Not one of those players are someone you would consider a bomber. This is further evidenced by the average driving distance here being only 266 yards while the average distance for a tour event is 283 yards. Hitting it long is not necessary, and can sometimes get you into trouble off the tee. It will be interesting to see how Dustin Johnson, the newest member of the RBC team plays here with his biggest weapon, his driver, taken out of his hands. DJ typical mashes Pete Dye Courses (Whistling Straits, TPC Sawgrass) but none are as short and technical as this.

Looking at what past winners have done well here it’s clear to see that Driving Distance doesn’t matter, and even good drives gained doesn’t correlate as its not entirely necessary to hit the fairway as long as you put yourself in good position off the tee as the rough is not very penal. Similar to last week a good combination of Birdies or Better gained and Bogeys Avoided will you help you climb the leaderboard. SG: Approach and Scrambling will be essential as the greens are small and you will need to get up and down. GIR Gained on the field seems to be important, but is not the end all if you can scramble so we will include it in our model, but not weigh it as heavily. With 11 Par 4’s, you’ll need to score on them, so our last statistic to look at is SG: Par 4’s.

Over the last 24 rounds, using those key statistics (SG App, SG ARG, BoB Gained, Bogeys Avoided, GIR Gained, and SG: Par 4) as well as looking only at courses with Bermuda greens and less than 7200 yards here is our top ten. In parentheses are their recent results at Harbor Town.

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1. Jim Furyk (MC, 1, 7, 42)
2. Luke Donald (2, T2, 15, 2, 3)
3. Kevin Chappell (T9, MC, MC)
4. Blayne Barber (T26, MC)
5. Paul Casey (MC, T18)
6. Brandt Snedeker (T11, MC, T26, T74, T59)
7. Adam Hadwin (T22, T30, MC)
8. Steward Cink (MC, MC, T31, T61, T24)
9. Nick Watney (First timer)
10. Sean O’Hair (MC, 6, MC)

We have a couple of past champions in this list with Furyk and Donald, as well as guys who have played well here with Snedeker and Hadwin and a few outliers like Cink and Watney. I’m intrigued by Chappell, he’s missed two cuts here but a T9 last year and he usually plays well at courses Jason Day plays well at, with Day having a 26th place finish here, and someone who usually eats up Pete Dye Courses, this course could fit Chappell’s eye.  Chappy missed the cut at the Masters so he’s probably fired up to get back out and play well again, and he should be well rested. Furyk’s price point and recent play are going to keep me off him this week, even if he tops my model. The guys on this list pass the eye test for players who should play well here but let’s take a deeper dive and see if any end up in my list of players to play and those to fade.

DFS Golf: Trending Up – RBC Heritage

In this section we will look at a couple of golfers that you should target in your lineups this week. I’ll differentiate between golfers that I think are Cash or GPP Viable or Both. All statistics that I use are from FantasyNational.com where I build a custom model each week based on statistics I feel are going to be essential to help you win in DFS Golf.

Adam Hadwin DK $8100/FD $11,000  – WITHDREW

Kevin Na DK $8200/FD $8900 

With the Adam Hadwin WD we are scrambling a bit for a replacement, but I’m thankful that we get the news today and not tomorrow after lock! I got on Kevin Na after the article came out, especially when I saw that his ownership would be sub 10%. He will obviously see a bump in that ownership but is still an extremely solid play, especially on FanDuel where he is ridiculously cheap.

Kevin ranks out as 11th in my model and has some good course history here with a T39 and a T4 the last two years, also has been on a run of good form, not missing a cut since the Sony Open in January. He is not the world’s best scrambler and has some issues making bogeys but in my model this week he ranks 1st in Birdies or Better gained, 8th in SG: Approach, and 2nd in Par 4 scoring. Sign me up.

If you have the Salary in GPP lineups I would suggest trying to find a way to get up to Tyrell Hatton DK $8,800/FD $10,400. He doesn’t rate out particularly well for me (28th) but there is ZERO buzz around him and he should come in WAY underowned for a world class player in this field. Not the worlds best approach game, but scores well on Par 4’s and was 29th here last year in his first trip around the track. That experience should help him this year. He’s also a good pivot off of Cam Smith who is going to garner a ton of ownership.

DFS Golf: Kevin Kisner DK $8700/FD $9800 

Kevin Kisner is the FD Value play and a strong play for DK. Same odds as Hadwin, 20th priced player on FD and 12th on DK. Is one of the best Par 4 scorers in the world and has some great form coming in after finishing second at the Match Play (Pete Dye Course) and 28th at the Masters. He is a Pete Dye Course Horse with a 2nd place finish here, 2nd at the Zurich, 2nd at the Players. He is a lights out Bermuda putter, with an excellent short game. His finishes just here at the RBC is T11, T69, 2, and T38. He ranks 17th in my model, and if we took out Bogey Avoidance he would be much higher. Kiz is a great wind player as well, and this course will test that, especially down the stretch with the Par 3 17th playing directly into the wind most days and the wind coming off the sound on the par 4 18th. I’m going to lock Kiz in in both Cash and GPP’s, especially on FD. Love his game, love the course history, and he everything about him fits here, I wouldn’t be surprised if he takes this one home.

DFS Golf: Kevin Chappell DK $7900/FD $10,300

Missed the cut at the Master’s so should be well rested, and ready to come back and play well. He is a great value on DK and the MC will depress his ownership. 3rd in my model, buoyed by his great approach game. Is not the world’s best putter, but has been putting better the last 5 tournaments. Was 6th at the Career Builder this year and had an 8th at the RSM in 2015 which are both Pete Dye Courses. Betting markets have him at 50-1 which is the same price as course horse Luke Donald. Chappell could be huge in GPP’s this week at his price point and as someone who isn’t ranked below 30th in any key stat category you should be locking him in to your GPP lineups.

DFS Golf GPP Punt Plays

Si Woo Kim: DK $7400/FD $8600

Blayne Barber: DK $6700/FD $7400

William McGirt: DK $7600/FD $9000

Patton Kizzire: DK $7300/FD $9000

Sean O’Hair: DK $7300/FD $8900

Austin Cook: DK $7200/FD $9200

DFS Golf: Trending Down – RBC Heritage

In this section we will look at a few golfers that are trending downwards, whether that’s statistically, due to course history, other narratives, or simply their price outweighs their value. Could these guys be on a winning GPP lineup? Absolutely, but this article is for the average player who is only playing a few lineups each week and isn’t massive multi entering 150 line ups. I’ll be personally be fading all three of these players in all formats.

DFS Golf: Dustin Johnson DK $12000/FD $12800 

Do you think DJ is going to win this week? On a course that takes the driver out of your hands, has small, hard to hit greens, and doesn’t reward aggressive play? At a tournament whose past winners are players like Wes Bryan and Jim Furyk? If you do, go for it and play him. He needs to win to provide value this week and if you think he can, then by all means go for it. I’m assuming he will be low owned (<10%) so there could be some strategy in playing him but I will be going with a full fade. The pricing is soft this week and you can fit him in with relative ease but again at that price he has to win to provide value and I think there’s better options. He’s 76th in my model, but only because he only has 10 rounds on courses like here (less than 7200 yards, Bermuda Greens, short rough) That tells you that he avoids tournaments like this unless he has to play, and as the newest member of team RBC he HAS to play this week. Price is high, form is only iffy for the world number one, and the course doesn’t seem to fit his game, no thank you.

DFS Golf: Luke Donald DK $7700/FD $8800

This event has been referred to as the Luke Donald open in the past as he has unbelievable course history here his last five trips around here he finished 2, T2, 15, 2, 3. The former world number one has zero form to speak of missing 4 of last 9 cuts and while that hasn’t seemed to matter in the past with Luke still placing highly regardless of form, it appears that this year his ownership is going to be through the roof, especially at these price points. The only area of his game that Luke is currently gaining strokes is his putting. If his price was around 9K he would be an interesting play because of the depressed ownership that comes with that price tag, but here at $7700, Luke could be well north of 30% owned, and at that point, to me, it makes a lot more sense to fade Donald here and hope for a MC, which I believe is very much in play here regardless of course history. If he misses the cut and you have 0% of him you can watch your lineups make a fast climb up the leaderboard. Check in with me on Twitter @dfsupnorth when the ownership trends become clearer, because if it looks like he will be under 15% owned, I would advise picking up some shares.

DFS Golf: Marc Leishman DK $10,300/FD $11300

I could regret this pick but for a guy who doesn’t have great course history here (T44, T30, MC and T9 back in 2013) is the fourth highest priced golfer for DFS Golf, and ends up 44th in model due to his poor approach game and bogey avoidance, I just don’t think he will reach value at this price this week. I love Marc Leishman and he has overcome so much adversity on and off the course, but I just don’t see it this week. He had a fast start at the Masters, sitting in second after two rounds, but he faltered on the weekend and wound up shooting 73 Saturday and closed with a 71 Sunday for a 9th place finish. He may contend here this week as he’s a world class golfer and can overcome some of the things that don’t necessarily fit his game, but combine what I’ve already said with the fact that he doesn’t really play well at Pete Dye Courses (for example MC last year at the Players) I’ll be fading him this week and finding value elsewhere.

Next: DraftKings NBA Picks

There are some great prize pools this week following the Masters’ as DK and FanDuel try to get players to reinvest the money they won at the Masters. Be smart with your bank roll and start to build some money up for the Players Championship in a month. Good Luck and if you have any lineup questions, get a hold of me @dfsupnorth