DraftKings Main MLB Picks April 10: Sale or deGrom?
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings Main MLB Picks April 10: Sale or deGrom?
12 of the 15 games are in the evening tonight. Only Chicago has day games today. The Indians-Tigers game is in limbo with first pitch at 6:05 Eastern, but you can find that in the pick em tournaments again.
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The only game lost yesterday was a matinee at Wrigley. As of right now, there are no games threatened by weather, but it could still be chilly in places.
We will provide you with several options to build your lineup here. Want to spend all your money on pitchers and play bargain bats? We will highlight who is worth the money. Want to punt arms and pay up for the big boppers? We can help you with that as well, and everything in between!
These tips are based mostly on past performance. This is a nice tool for building a lineup, but should not be the only pieces of information you use. Stacking against a bad pitcher is always a good idea!
For you first time players, if you would like a free $20 in DraftKings dollars, use this link for the referral bonus with your first deposit of $5 or more! Then continue reading for tips on how to turn those DraftKings dollars into more!
Next: DraftKings Pitcher Plays
Top Tier:
Jacob deGrom ($12,400): I can’t believe that deGrom is more expensive than Sale. He has held the Marlins to a .254 average in 63 at bats with one homer, five RBI, and an impressive 18 strikeouts. Facing Caleb Smith is also a great spot for a win. The Marlins aren’t scoring a lot of runs, but I don’t know that deGrom will outscore Sale today.
Chris Sale ($12,300): Sale has held the Yankees to a paltry .156 average in 90 at bats with only one homer and four runs to go with a staggering 36 strikeouts. Sale is the pitcher you want if you are spending up for an arm.
Luis Severino ($10,500): It’s kinda tough to fire up Severino against the Red Sox. Boston is only hitting .239 in 109 at bats against Severino, but they have scored 17 runs. The 35 strikeouts means that Severino is still going to have a solid score regardless, but it may not be worth the five figure salary. However, Severino is 1-1 with a 3.20 ERA in 19.2 innings at Fenway Park. The surroundings wont intimidate Severino.
Carlos Martinez ($10,100): The Brewers are hitting a very solid .288 against Martinez, but they only have four homers and 16 runs in 156 at bats. The 42 strikeouts by Martinez keep him in the upper tier, but it probably shouldn’t. There is enough risk here to justify a fade, but we all know that Martinez is capable of pitching a great game.
Middle Tier:
Johnny Cueto ($8,700): The Diamondbacks are only hitting .198 in 96 career at bats off of Cueto with two homers and six RBI along with a whopping 27 strikeouts. There is a lot of potential here. Cueto is off to a good start this year. Arizona is dangerous, but this is a pitcher’s park.
Aaron Nola ($8,200): The current Reds are only hitting .189 against Aaron Nola with a homer and four runs in 37 at bats. Nola is not a big strikeout guy, but nine of 37 is a pretty nice number. There is huge potential for a win with Homer Bailey taking the mound opposite Nola as well.
Tyler Anderson ($7,600): Anderson has held the Padres to a .233 average in 60 at bats with just one homer and two runs to go with 13 strikeouts. There is very good potential here against a fairly light hitting Padre team. The kicker is that Anderson is 8-5 with a 3.39 ERA in 20 career home starts. He seems way too cheap for the potential.
Aaron Sanchez ($7,500): The Orioles are only hitting .229 against Sanchez in 131 at bats , but they have smacked seven home runs. The 28 strikeouts are a decent number. Decent enough to help Sanchez get out of this with a decent score no matter how many runs he may give up.
Bargain Pitchers:
Mike Foltynewicz ($6,600): It’s no secret that the Braves hit Strasburg hard, so there is potential for Foltynewicz here. The Nats are hitting a solid .275 with five homers and 13 runs in only 91 at bats, but the 20 strikeouts is potential you don’t normally get from this price range. Foltynewicz is going to give up runs, but with the way the Braves his Strasburg and the strikeout potential, there is value here.
Brent Suter ($6,400): Suter has allowed the Cardinals a .256 average with three homers and four runs in 39 at bats. The eight strikeouts are solid numbers for Suter. He will likely get tagged for a few runs, but the strikeout potential still makes him a solid option.
Caleb Smith ($5,100): There is potential here for Smith. He was outstanding in his debut this year at home against the Cubs. He was a disaster in Philly. Now that Smith is at home against a middle of the road Mets team, there is a lot of potential here, good and bad.
Top Tier:
The Blue Jays have bludgeoned Andrew Cashner. Justin Smoak, Kendrys Morales, and Josh Donaldson have all hit homers off of Cashner. They are a combined 5-16 with three homers and five RBI. This could be a good place to stack.
Joey Lucchesi pitched well against the Rockies in his first start against them. That was San Diego. This is Coors. The right handed Rockies power is all in play, headlined by Nolan Arenado and Ian Desmond.
Paul Goldschmidt has both homers and six of the RBI against Johnny Cueto despite the .259 average. If anyone is going to get to Cueto tonight, it will likely be Goldschmidt.
Middle Tier:
Freddie Freeman in this tier is highway robbery. Freeman is 15-40(.375) with six walks, four doubles, four homers, 11 runs scored, and 13 RBI in his career against Stephen Strasburg. Kurt Suzuki is worth a look against Strasburg. He is 3-7 with a run scored and three RBI.
I don’t know how much I trust the Phillies overall, but Carlos Santana and Rhys Hoskins are definitely worth a look against Homer Bailey. He is one of the cheapest pitchers on the slate for a reason.
Buster Posey is 12-41(.293) with eight walks, two doubles, nine runs scored, and two RBI in his career against Patrick Corbin.
Travis Shaw and Eric Thames don’t have great numbers against Carlos Martinez, but they have both hit home runs off of him.
I like both Matt Chapman and Jonathan Lucroy against Hyun-Jin Ryu. Marus Semien and Khris Davis are definitely in play here as well.
Yadier Molina is 4-7 with a double and two solo homers against Brent Suter. Jose Martinez also has a solo homer against Suter.
Brian McCann is 13-28(.464) with two walks, three doubles, a triple, three homers, seven runs scored, and 10 RBI in his career against Jake Odorizzi. He may be the best catcher option tonight.
Bargain Shoppers:
Mike Moustakas is 4-16 with a double, a homer, and four RBI in his career against Felix Hernandez. Hernandez has had a rough start to the season, so using Royals on the cheap is not a horrible idea.
Justin Bour is 6-12 with two walks, a double, a homer, four runs scored, and four RBI in his career against deGrom. Only one other Marlin has driven in a run against deGrom. Bour is the only Marlin I would even consider.
Look out for Eduardo Escobar. Escobar is 3-7 with a homer and two RBI against Dallas Keuchel. Logan Morrison is 4-11 with a walk, a double, a homer, three runs scored, and two RBI against Keuchel.
I’m just going to come right out and say it. It’s going to be a rough night for Martin Perez. Martin Maldonado is 4-7 with two walks, two doubles, and three runs scored against Perez. Jefry Marte is very cheap, and is 4-11 with a double, a homer, two runs scored, and five RBI against Perez. Albert Pujols is 7-23(.304) with five walks, three runs scored, and three RBI.
Tyler Austin is 1-3 with a three run homer off of Chris Sale. Only one other Yankee has driven in a run against Sale. It is backup catcher Austin Romine.
Chris Davis has destroyed Aaron Sanchez. Davis is 8-21(.381) with ten walks, two doubles, four homers, seven runs scored, and five RBI in his career against Sanchez. Pedro Alvarez is only 2-12 against Sanchez, but one of those is a home run.
Mitch Moreland is 4-12 with a walk, two doubles, a run scored, and three RBI off of Severino. He could be worth a look for just $3,000.
Adrian Beltre and Robinson Chirinos provide salary relief with good numbers. Chirinos is 2-4 with a walk, a double, and a run scored in his career against Tyler Skaggs. Adrian Beltre is 4-14 with a homer and five RBI against Skaggs.
Top Tier:
Trea Turner is 5-12 with a walk, a double, a homer, a steal, three runs scored, and two RBI against Mike Foltynewicz. Leading off against a Nats lineup that could score a lot of runs could mean a big night for Turner.
Trevor Story and DJ LeMahieu are in the mix here as well against Lucchesi. If you are willing to pay the premium, that is.
Middle Tier:
Brian Dozier is 5-11 with a double, a homer, three runs scored, and two RBI in his career against Dallas Keuchel. Believe it or not, the Twins have hit Keuchel pretty hard. There could be some hidden value here.
I really like Elvis Andrus here against Tyler Skaggs. Elvis is 7-16(.438) with three walks, a double, a homer, a steal, five runs scored, and four RBI in his career against Skaggs.
I like Jean Segura agianst Eric Skoglund here. Leading off against a young lefty, there is quite a bit of potential here.
Bargain Shoppers:
Whit Merrifield is only 1-4 against King Felix, but that hit is a solo homer. Alcides Escobar is 7-22(.318) with a walk, five steals, three runs scored, and three RBI. There is a lot of potential here with the speed on Escobar.
Jonathan Schoop is 9-22(.409) with two walks and a solo homer against Aaron Sanchez. I don’t know that I expect a lot from the Oriole offense today, but Schoop at this price is certainly worth a look.
Brandon Crawford is 8-25(.320) with a walk, a double, a triple, two homers, five runs scored, and five RBi in his career. Crawford is very cheap since he’s facing a lefty, but he could be worth it here.
Starlin Castro is 3-10 with a run scored and a RBI off of Aaron Nola. These are decent numbers, but you can likely do better in this tier.
Jonathan Villar is 9-26(.346) with a walk, a double, a homer, seven runs scored, and three RBI in his career against Martinez.
Next: Top Outfield Plays
Top Tier:
The Braves figured out how to deal with Bryce Harper. They walked him three times. Harper is 3-11 with four walks, two doubles, a solo homer, and two runs scored against Foltynewicz. Brian Goodwin should start. If he does, Goodwin is 5-8 with a double, two homers, and three RBI. Anthony Rendon is only 3-13, but he has a homer and three RBI against Foltynewicz.
We get a discount on some Boston hitters today, and it may be worth taking advantage of that. Mookie Betts is only 4-17(.235), but he has two walks, two doubles, five runs scored, and two RBI in his career against Severino. J.D. Martinez has only faced Severino three times, but he has two singles and a run scored. Andrew Benintendi is the best bet. Benintendi is 6-14 with a walk, a double, two homers, four runs scored, and seven RBI in his career off of Severino.
The Mets don’t have a ton of right handed power, but Yoenis Cespedes looks like low hanging fruit against lefty Caleb Smith. Todd Frazier is also in a good spot here.
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Middle Tier:
I don’t know that Mike Trout is worth the money, but Justin Upton sure is. Upton is 3-5 with four walks, a homer, two runs scored, and four RBI in his career against Martin Perez. Chris Young is also a great punt. Young is 5-11 with two walks, a double, and a solo homer off Perez.
Yasiel Puig and Enrique Hernandez are in play with a lefty on the mound. Hernandez is more high priced now against lefties, but he still may be worth it. And he is now eligible at second base.
Mitch Haniger is off to a fast start this season, and is not facing a young lefty. You can do a lot worse.
Bargain Shoppers:
Domingo Santana is 7-20 with a homer, four runs scored, and two RBI in his career against Carlos Martinez.
Adam Duvall is 3-6 with a double, a homer, two runs scored, and two RBI in his career against Aaron Nola. At this price, Duvall looks pretty good.
Curtis Granderson is 3-11 with a walk, a double, a homer, two runs scored, and three RBI in his career against Cashner.
Hunter Pence is 15-33(.455) with three walks, four doubles, a triple, four homers, nine runs scored, and 11 RBI in his career against Patrick Corbin.
Nick Markakis is 9-28(.321) with three walks, a double. a homer, six runs scored, and four RBI in his career against Stephen Strasburg.
Shin-Soo Choo is one of the better lefty hitters against left handed pitching. Against Tyler Skaggs is no exception. Choo is 5-8 with three walks, a double, a steal, three runs scored, and a RBI against Skaggs.
Next: MLB DFS Picks and Pivots
Good luck out there, and check out our picks for FanDuel baseball, along with our PGA picks. We also have the NBA still winding out the season, but DFS is still going strong!