DraftKings NBA Picks April 10: Will Harden play enough?
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings NBA Picks April 10: Will Harden play enough?
There are six games on our last Tuesday of the NBA season. The Pacers, Sixers, Wizards, and Jazz are still jockeying for playoff position. The Rockets, Warriors, and Celtics are settled into their seeding, so they may sit or limit some stars. We pretty much know what we are getting from the Suns, Lakers, and Hawks. The Mavs and Hornets are the wild cards here. There is significant value on this slate.
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The money line was up to 282 DraftKings points last night. My Tyrone Wallace pick didn’t work out so well, but was saved by Kennard and Allen Crabbe.
The winning lineup was up quite a ways to 379.75 points. He built around Westbrook and Mirotic and got huge value from Kennard, Crabbe, Harrell, Nurkic, and Valanciunas.
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Point Guards:
Best Bets:
Ben Simmons ($10,700): We don’t really care about the price tag anymore. There is so much value here that we can pretty much player whomever we want. The issue is with players resting or sitting. That probably wont happen with Simmons, at least not until the game is out of hand. I would guess that Simmons still winds up with 50 DraftKings points or so before resting the final eight minutes of the game.
John Wall (8,500): Wall certainly looked in playoff shape, playing 38 minutes and racking up 59.5 DraftKings points on the Cavs on Thursday before resting Friday. This should be Wall’s final tuneup before the playoffs, so expect a similar strong showing, even against Boston. Wall put up 51.25 DraftKings points in his only game against Boston this season.
Honorable Mention:
Dennis Smith Jr. ($7,300): This is the last game of the regular season for Dallas, so they could elect to hold Smith out if his knee is bugging him. We will have to keep an eye on this one up until tipoff, but Dallas would love to have the rookie end on a high note. He will definitely to that if he plays against the Suns.
Tyler Ulis ($7,100): Another game, another 30+ DraftKings points performance for Ulis. That is now seven straight, but he has only hit 5x value at this price twice in that span. Ulis has a solid floor, but he isn’t going to get you a huge score.
Dark Horses:
Quinn Cook ($6,400): Cook may actually be a better bet to hit value than Ulis. Cook has at least 20 DraftKings points in every game since Curry went down, and has hit 5x value at this price in eight of them. The matchup against Utah isn’t quite so daunting as it looked like Rubio’s hammy was still bugging him on Sunday. Rubio may play, but I doubt he sees a lot of minutes. That opens the door for Cook again.
Isaiah Taylor ($4,500)/Tyler Dorsey ($4,300): The Hawks are pretty much splitting the minutes between the two right now. However, with them both being about the same price now, I think I would rather go with the starter over the backup. Dorsey struggled against Boston last game, and Taylor is also probably better equipped to deal with the Sixers.
Tyler Ennis ($4,500): With Lonzo Ball still nursing a knee bruise, there is huge potential for Ennis. The Lakers have even limited the minutes of KCP while giving guys like Ennis and Hart extended run. Expect that to continue over the last two games. However, if Ball plays one or both of these, it will take a chunk out of the value here.
My pick: N/A
Shooting Guards:
Best Bets:
James Harden ($11,300): Harden has abused the Lakers for an average of 66.4 DraftKings points per game against the Lakers this year. The only problem is that the Rockets already have the top seed in the West locked up. They really have no reason to ride Paul or Harden in this one. If you have the stones to use Harden despite this, you could be handsomely rewarded. Or Harden could rest around half the game. If Harden is still in the starting lineup, it could be worth the risk.
Donovan Mitchell ($8,000): Mitchell was huge in the win over the Lakers on Sunday, putting up 54.75 DraftKings points. Mitchell takes a high volume of shots, and is playing a lot of minutes. The Jazz still are trying to hang on to a home playoff series. You can bet they will lean on Mitchell again, especially if Rubio remains limited.
Honorable Mention:
Bradley Beal ($7,400): Beal has at least 40 DraftKings points in each of the last three games. He has been even better with Wall back for the most part. The Wizards want to make sure that their two stars are comfortable on the court together heading into the playoffs, so they should still play Beal and Wall solid minutes tonight.
Taurean Prince ($7,300): Prince put up another monster on Boston on Sunday. That was the first 50+ DraftKings point game for Prince in nearly a month, but he is still putting up good numbers almost every night. The Hawks are going to continue to let him run wild through the end of the season, so he is worth a look in DFS formats.
Dark Horses:
Danuel House ($5,900): The Suns are playing their final game tonight, and with the way House has played lately, it seems like that the Suns are going to let him run in the final game as well. Josh Jackson is still listed as questionable, as is Warren. If one or both is out, expect another strong game from House.
Malik Monk ($5,800): Monk put up 34.5 DraftKings points on the Pacers on Sunday. It looks likely that Walker and Batum will be used sparingly here again, so expect another strong performance from Monk. With the season winding down, the Hornets may even elect to hive him a start. Even if they don’t, Monk is one of my favorite value plays.
Lance Stephenson ($4,500): The Pacers limited the minutes of their starters on Sunday, and likely will again. Lance put up 38.5 DraftKings points on Sunday, finishing two points shy of a triple double. Can he complete the task tonight? The Pacers should let him play quite a bit, so there is value to be had here.
My pick: Monk(SG), Prince(SF), Mitchell(G), Stephenson(UTIL), Harden(PG)
Small Forwards:
Best Bets:
Josh Jackson ($7,900): The Suns aren’t going to push Jackson’s quad, but if he’s healthy, I’m pretty sure that he will be out there. I still like Jackson even at this price. He has back to back 40+ DraftKigns points games before missing Sunday’s contest. If Jackson is healthy, use him like normal.
Robert Covington ($7,200): In this NBA landscape of huge value plays, the mid range guys are often overlooked. Covington put up a nice game against Dallas over the weekend, and has an elite matchup here against the Hawks. There is solid potential with Covington.
Honorable Mention:
Jayson Tatum ($6,900): Mystery shrouded Tatum’s status heading into Sunday’s game, but he ended up playing his normal compliment of minutes, and putting up a nice line against the Hawks. Washington could provide a little more resistance, but not much. Tatum remains a solid pick down the stretch here as Boston is still beat up all over the place.
Joe Ingles ($6,700): Ingles took advantage of Rubio being limited, and had a huge night against the Lakers. The Warriors are going to be a tougher nut to crack, but with the second seed all but locked up, don’t be surprised if they limit Durant’s minutes again. Hopefully we get wind of what’s going on before the full lineup lock. Even if Rubio does play, Ingles is a solid value pick, but his upside is pretty limited.
Dark Horses:
Josh Hart ($5,900): The Lakers really have no reason to push Kuzma, Ingram, or Ball here. I fully expect Ingram and Kuzma to sit, which would mean another start for Hart. Hart has 74.75 DraftKings points over the last two games against two good SF defenses in Utah and Minnesota. I see no reason to avoid him here against Houston.
Damion Lee ($5,100): Lee continues to put up good stat lines for the Hawks. They even started him at the point against Boston on Sunday. Lee responded with 30 DraftKings points. There is a chance that he could phase out Dorsey and Taylor. Right now, Lee’s durability makes him a safer pick.
Dorian Finney-Smith ($4,400): Harrison Barnes has already been ruled out for rest on the last day of the season for the Mavs. That should mean a start for DFS against a Suns team that quit trying a few months ago. He should be a really good value pick again tonight.
My pick: N/A
Power Forwards:
Best Bets:
Al Horford ($6,600): I don’t really trust KD or Draymond to play a ton of minutes, nor do I trust Randle against Houston. This tough matchup will have me slacking off of Randle for the first time in a while and focusing on the middle level. Horford has been putting up solid numbers lately, going over 5x value at this price in four of the last six games. The Celtics aren’t going to wear him out, but they aren’t going to let him get rusty either.
Ersan Ilyasova ($6,200): The Sixers are taking it easy with Saric, and why not? Ilyasova has at least 30 DraftKings points in four straight and five of six. One of those was a 49.5 DraftKings point outburst against his former team, this same Atlanta squad. He isn’t going to do that again with Saric around, but there is still potential for another solid game.
Honorable Mention:
Marquese Chriss ($6,000): Chriss was held out on Sunday with hip pain after putting up a big game against the Pelicans on Friday. If Chriss plays, I want him in my lineup. However, we may not get word until after the lineups lock, as was the case on Sunday. There is sizeable risk here if we don’t hear anything official beforehand.
Dwight Powell ($5,800): Powell is getting good run here lately, and should get the same treatment tonight against the Suns. If Powell plays 35 minutes against this Suns front, he is going to have a monster game. The Mavs have no reason not to play him as much as he can handle here.
John Collins ($5,700): Collins has only been under 30 DraftKings points once in the last six contests, and he still hit value in that game. I understand being apprehensive against Philly, but Collins has 51.75 DraftKings points on them in only 43 minutes this year. There is still potential here.
Dark Horses:
Derrick Favors ($5,500): Favors continues to put up solid numbers, but he is probably better left for cash games since he hasn’t gone over 30 DraftKings points since March 23rd. I can’t fault you for using him against a Warriors team that has surrendered 31.7 DraftKings points per game to him in three meetings this year.
Domantas Sabonis ($5,200): Sabonis erupted for 49.5 DraftKings points against Charlotte on Saturday. Seeing his is facing the same Charlotte team and the starters should be seeing limited minutes again, there is serious potential here for Sabonis once again.
Dragan Bender ($4,700): I still like Bender here even if Chriss is back because the Suns are still starting Bender. Chriss has higher upside, but Bender is far more of a constant due to his guaranteed playing status and his starter’s minutes.
My pick: Sabonis(PF)
Center:
Best Bet:
Clint Capela ($7,200): I don’t trust Howard. His minutes were reduced on Sunday, and likely will be again. Gobert has a tough matchup, so that leaves Capela. To be honest, I’m not crazy about Capela either with the Rockets having the West wrapped up. However, he is the best of the higher priced options tonight.
Honorable Mention:
Greg Monroe ($6,100): Monroe has been a big contributor lately. He even posted a triple double on Friday! Over the last four games, Monroe has averaged 36.6 DraftKings points per game. The Celtics should continue to give him run down the stretch.
Dewayne Dedmon ($5,200): Dedmon continues to see good minutes down the stretch. He clearly has a place in Atlanta’s future, so the Hawks will let him keep playing 30 minutes or more a game. There is good potential here against a Philadelphia team that is still without Embiid.
Dark Horses:
Willy Hernangomez ($4,400): Wiily has been freed! Somewhat. The Hornets are finally limiting the minutes of Howard, but Hernangomez was going strong before that at the expense of Frank the Tank. Willy has at least 25 DraftKings points in five straight games, making him the safest value play out there right now.
Trevor Booker ($3,300): Booker has played 40 minutes over the last two games, tallying 41.75 DraftKings points. With the Pacers limiting the minutes of the starters, there is strong value potential for Booker here. If you need the cash, go for it!
My pick: Hernangomez(C), Booker(F)
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