MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – Tuesday April 10
Welcome to the Tuesday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind MLB DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s MLB DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference, to help you build your best line-up and win big
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
Another MLB DFS slate and another night dominated by starting pitching early in this baseball season as seven of the top eight fantasy performers on the night were pitchers including the top play of the night by a substantial margin in Max Scherzer who dropped 48 fantasy points on the back of a complete game shutout with 10 strikeouts versus the Atlanta Braves.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your MLB DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
MLB DFS: Starting Pitching Overview:
If you read yesterday’s Picks and Pivots you will know we made the case for paying up to the very top for both starting pitcher spots in our roster build with the concept being that we had a handful of high strikeout arms and a majority of games with less than ideal hitting environments due to cold temperatures across the US.
Well today’s slate is screaming at me to approach it the very same way as we have a handful of elite arms on this slate including Chris Sale, Luis Severino, Jacob deGrom and Stephen Strasburg at the top with a second tier including Aaron Nola, Dallas Keuchel, Carlos Martinez and Homer Bailey – ok, just making sure you were paying attention with that last one.
The weather is not nearly as cold as it was yesterday as we are starting to see temperatures creep up today but the majority of these games are still being played in 40-50 degree weather and we have seen early in this MLB DFS season that pitching is what is carrying you over the cash line as offenses sputter out of the gate.
So where do we start? Chris Sale ($23.8K) is the highest priced arm on the slate and metrics wise is the top strikeout arm with a crazy 36% K rate but there is one problem – he has to face the Yankees line-up today. Luis Severino ($20.5K) is the second highest K arm on this slate with a 29% K rate but has to go against Sale and this Red Sox team in Fenway. Because of the match-ups here and the fact they are going against each other the ownership will probably be lower on these aces then it would be on a normal slate so I can understand the tournament appeal but there are two pitchers tonight with every bit the K upside of these two facing MUCH easier match-ups so I do not see myself taking the risk with Sale and/or Severino.
Jacob deGrom ($23.7K) is next man up for the red-hot Mets as they take on the Marlins in Miami and much like Noah Syndergaard last night, steps to the mound as a big time (-170) road favorite. deGrom has a 28.8% K rate over the last two years with a 13.2% swinging strike rate, putting him on par with the other top arms on this slate and with the line-up the Marlins are rolling out these days it would be hard to argue that any pitcher has a better match-up on paper. Last night was the first night I watched a Marlins game this season, mostly because they were playing my Mets, and seeing how watered down this line-up is made me realize how often I will likely be using the Mets and Nationals stud arms against this team all year-long. deGrom has been exceptional through his first two starts against the Nationals and Cardinals and should find a similar path to success tonight as one of the safest building blocks on the slate with the K upside to match any other arm in action.
One night after we saw Max Scherzer roll through the Braves line-up we can double down with Stephen Strasburg ($21.2K) in the same match-up. Strasburg metrics wise is essentially the mirror image of deGrom with a 28.7% K rate and 13% swinging strike rate and comes into tonight as a massive -220 home favorite which is the largest such favorite on the board tonight.
As I noted yesterday, on sites with two starting pitchers the tendency is to go high/low with your two pitchers but I think there is merit early in this season on slates with elite arms to pay up for both spots at SP as we are seeing every single night that pitching is what is driving the cash line with the top performers from a raw point perspective being arms every single night.
Much like last night, if you are to lock in deGrom/Strasburg you are going to be left with roughly $6.8K per batter which may take the high-priced Coors bats out of play but there is plenty of value to be had which will allow you to target hitters with home run upside. Personally this early in the year I am going to side with the safety/upside of the elite K arms instead of forcing my way into the “must have bats” – as you will hear time and time again baseball is the most variance driven DFS sport as even the best hitters will go 0-4 on certain nights. Look back at last night as an example – Bryce Harper was a can’t miss play against a SP in Julio Teheran who he has owned in his career and he went 0-1 with 3 BB’s while Nolan Arenado in Coors Field versus a lefty (lock right?) went 0-3 with a walk.
Listen tonight could be the night the Coors bats go off and if that happens and I miss out so be it but the early season results are showing on a nightly basis that you pay up for the high K elite arms and simply find the bats to make it work. I see no reason to buck that trend tonight with a crazy stable of aces on the mound!
MLB DFS – Top Hitting Spots:
With the continued cold temperatures across much of the US and a ton of high-end arms on the slate the player pool for hitting becomes much less than we would normally have on a slate this size but let’s not overlook that we have a handful of arms we can pick on tonight including my favorite spot – the Angels and Rangers playing in Arlington with LHP Martin Perez and LHP Tyler Skaggs taking the mound for their respective clubs.
Martin Perez is a pretty straightforward pitcher to pick on as he is tremendously tough against LHB but right-handed bats are a totally different story as he surrendered a 1.3 HR/9 rate last season with a 35% hard contact rate and we saw in his opening start against the A’s that picking on him can be a succesful venture. In that game against a right-handed heavy Oakland team, Perez gave up 10 hits and an insane 59% hard contact rate but as he usually does he tends to limit the damage as he only gave up 3 runs in that game. Perez is one of those guys that the metrics always scream at you to stack against but he tends to limit the damage more than we would like so keep that in mind before going crazy with a stack but today against a right-handed heavy Angels line-up that has a long history of BvP success against Perez, I am going to target this spot heavily in one of the warmest game environments (70 degrees) on the slate.
Mike Trout ($11.1K) is the clear top dog to build around here with Justin Upton ($8.2K) not far behind and you can round out a stack with Albert Pujols ($6.8K) as a cost-effective way to build around the heart of the Angles order. You may be wondering how in the world you can afford both Trout and Upton with your pitching heavy roster, well my friends let’s flip to the other side of this game to get us some salary relief.
The book on Tyler Skaggs is relatively simple – he is a mediocre strikeout arm who gives up home runs (1.22 HR/9) and hard contact (33%) to right-handed batters and the Angels not only have a solid crew of righty bats but with some recent injuries there is a ton of value to be had here.
With Rougned Odor leaving last night’s game with a strained hamstring, expect Jurickson Profar ($4.7K) to step into the Rangers line-up tonight as an elite punt play and I like the idea of a wrap-around bottom of the order value stack with Profar and Ryan Rua ($4.8K) which you can complete with Shin-soo Choo ($6.7K) at the top of the order in a lefty/lefty match-up that most will ignore but Choo actually showed last year some reverse splits tendency as he has a higher wOBA against LHP than right-handers.
The beauty of the Rangers on this slate is that you can easily stack their big right-handed bats like Adrian Beltre ($7K) and Elvis Andrus ($7.3K) in the heart of the order at inexpensive price points which not only give you upside with the platoon advantage but also can help you easily afford the stud SP’s tonight.
Last but not least – HAPPY WILMER FLORES VERSUS A LEFTY DAY!
Wilmer Flores ($5.4K) against Caleb Smith, a left-hander who has given up 5 HR’s and 12 ER in only 19 innings of work versus right-handed hitters. Flores will likely be in the clean-up spot today for the Mets and this is a free square that people will just continue to overlook. Lock him in.
MLB DFS – Sample Line-Up and Slate Overview: Main Slate
The line-up below is meant to be illustrative only to further back-up the logic laid out in previous slides and is not meant to be an optimal line-up or a roster you simply plug and play on your own!
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SP: Jacob deGrom ($23.7K)
SP: Stephen Strasburg ($21.2K)
IF: Wilmer Flores ($5.4K)
IF: Elvis Andrus ($7.3K)
IF: Albert Pujols ($6.8K)
OF: Mike Trout ($11.1K)
OF: Justin Upton ($8.2K)
OF: Ryan Rua ($4.8K)
Util: Jurickson Profar ($4.7K)
Util: Shin-Soo Choo ($6.7K)
Slate Overview: Another night of MLB DFS where I think pitching will reign supreme and you should do everything in your power to pay up for the high-end strikeout arms on the slate. There appears to be enough value at first glance with bats like Wilmer Flores and the Rangers right-handers to make this build work with relative ease. Best of luck all!
Best of luck in your MLB DFS contests across FantasyDraft, FanDuel and DraftKings and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS news and analysis!