DraftKings NBA Picks April 11: Ride Jokic to the money!

MINNEAPOLIS, MN – NOVEMBER 21: A general view of the Target Center during the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves and the San Antonio Spurs on November 21, 2014 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The Spurs defeated the Timberwolves 121-92. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Hannah Foslien/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Picks April 11: Ride Jokic to the money!

Where have the last six months gone? The NBA regular season comes to a close with 12 games tonight, nine of them tipping off at 7pm eastern, which really helps our decision making process. Tonight I am going to avoid teams that have clinched their playoff spot all together. There is too much risk in teams resting players tonight. This is essentially week 17 of the NFL season all crammed into one day. Most of these picks are going to be value picks from the same teams. Yes, I think Westbrook and Harden could have good games, but the chance that they don’t is just as high as the chance they do. I’m not spending 1/5 of the salary on something that uncertain.

Point Guards:

Best Bets:

Russell Westbrook ($11,900): With a home playoff series still on the line for the Thunder, they are going to do everything they can to win. Unfortunately, it wont take a whole lot of effort to beat the Grizzlies. There is a chance that Westbrook could get rested down the stretch in this game. However, I would still think that Westbrook plays around 30 minutes. With that kind of workload, he should still hit 50 DraftKings points. If that’s enough for you to use him here, then go for it!

Jeff Teague ($7,200): This is essentially a play in game for the playoffs. The NBA couldn’t have planned this kind of drama any better. Teague has 93.5 DraftKings points over his last two games, and a really good matchup in a must win game against Denver. This is exactly the kind of player you want to use.

Honorable Mention:

D’Angelo Russell ($6,700): Even Boston bench players play better defense than some teams, so this isn’t a must play scenario for Russell. However, I do think the Nets are still all about seeing what they have for next year. They want to see effort out of Russell, so there is some potential here. That said, he has been unable to string together back to back good games for much of the last few weeks.

Rajon Rondo ($6,600): The winner of this game gets the five seed and a matchup with Utah instead of Portland. Tell me that’s not a good enough reason to use Rondo. This is not a great matchup against the Spurs, but it’s good enough.

Jamal Murray ($6,400): Murray totes a 38.8 DraftKings points per game average against Minnesota into this one. Denver isn’t going to change anything up. It’s going to be Murray and Jokic that get them into the playoffs, or they don’t make it at all. Murray is one of my favorite plays of the night at this price against this team.

Dark Horses:

Dejounte Murray ($6,100): Murray came up flat in 15 minutes against the Kings on Monday, but playoff seeding is on the line here. Expect Murray to see plenty of minutes in this one considering his 37.8 DrafKings points per game average against the Pelicans this year.

Tyler Ennis ($4,800): Ennis has been money with Ball out. Being it is the last game of the season, the Lakers have no reason to put Ball, Ingram, or Kuzma out there tonight. Expect another strong game from Ennis, making him a pretty reliable value pick. Even if Ball plays, I would bet he’s on a strict limit.

Frank Ntilikina ($4,300): Ntilikina played 40 minutes against the Cavs on Monday. What do you think their plans are for him tonight? Yep…..another 40 against the Cavs.

My pick: Teague(PG), J. Murray(G), Ntilikina(UTIL)

NEW YORK, NY – FEBRUARY 10: Jrue Holiday #11 of the New Orleans Pelicans works against Allen Crabbe #33 of the Brooklyn Nets in the first round of overtime during their game at Barclays Center on February 10, 2018 in the Brooklyn borough of New York City. (Photo by Abbie Parr/Getty Images) /

Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

Jrue Holiday ($8,200): Holiday hasn’t lit up the Spurs this year, but he has put up solid numbers. Solid enough to make him a strong play in the upper middle class tier. Holiday is always a threat to go off on any given night, and the 35.9 average against the Spurs isn’t bad. It’s just not as much as we would like.

Donovan Mitchell ($8,000): With not only every game being important, but every shot as well. there is a strong case for using as good of a shooter as Mitchell. He is a big reason that the Jazz are where they are. You can bet he wants another three games in Salt Lake City as well.

Honorable Mention:

Bradley Beal ($7,800): I don’t think the Wizards are in any hurry to play Wall in back to back games yet, so no matter their playoff status after tonight, I would expect that Wall either sits or plays very limited minutes. That opens the door for Beal to dominate usage and carry this team as they try to get out of the eighth slot in the East.

Jimmy Butler ($7,400): The Timberwolves were able to keep their heads above water with Butler out, but they are going to need him here. I think that’s why they limited him in the last couple of games. Butler isn’t going to play 40 minutes, but I would think he plays at least 30 here if Minnesota needs him, which they should. There is good potential with Butler at this price.

MarShon Brooks ($6,400): Hey, the Grizzlies have to throw someone out there on the court. I would expect the Grizz to suit up maybe nine players or so, so almost all of them will have value. What the rotation will actually be is anyone’s guess.

Dark Horses:

Gary Harris ($5,700): Harris put up more than a DraftKing point per minute in his return. Denver may not return him to the starting five, but the first one to go cold is getting pulled for Harris. Denver is going to need his scoring to win the game, so expect Harris to till play in the high 20’s for minutes at the very least.

Sean Kilpatrick ($5,100): Who better than a Nets castoff to help you lose? Much like the Grizzlies, the Bulls have to send someone out there. Someone has manifested itself in the form of Sean Kilpatrick. Kilpatrick does have at least 5x value in six straight games though, making him a safe value pick in all formats.

Luke Kennard ($4,300): Kennard has put up 68.5 DraftKings points in his last two games. Ride him for one final start here, especially against the awful Bulls defense.

My pick: Holiday(SG)

PHILADELPHIA, PA – APRIL 6: LeBron James #23 of the Cleveland Cavaliers talks with referee Tom Washington #49 in the fourth quarter against the Philadelphia 76ers at the Wells Fargo Center on April 6, 2018 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The 76ers defeated the Cavaliers 132-130. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images) /

Small Forwards:

Best Bets:

LeBron James ($11,400): The Cavs can do no worse than the four seed, but they would much rather have the three so they don’t have to face Philly in the first round or Toronto in the second. I tend to think that James has pretty much the same workload that he had against this same New York team on Monday. LeBron put up 53 DraftKings points in that one so he may not hit value. However, anything over 50 is a solid return with so much uncertainty out there.

Paul George ($7,900): George isn’t going to be in any winning lineups. He lacks upside, and we pretty much know what we are going to get from him. However, he can still help you make money. I usually build one lineup of mostly sure things, even in GPP formats, in case the other one doesn’t go well. George should put up solid but unspectacular numbers once again.

Honorable Mention:

Will Barton ($7,300): Barton filled in nicely for Harris, but his minutes are likely going to take a hit here. The Nuggets don’t seem to be in any hurry to remove Wilson Chandler from the starting five, so Barton will be the sub at the two and the three. He still has solid value playing about 28-30 minutes on the second unit, but the price makes him a less desirable option.

Jabari Parker ($6,500): I only really like Parker at this price if the Bucks hold out Giannis again. Otherwise the numbers have been too sporadic to count on. Philly still has something to play for as well, so this is going to be a tough game. If Parker doesn’t start, he doesn’t have enough upside for me.

Josh Hart ($6,500): The Lakers could throw a whole wrench in this thing if they decide to play Ball, Kuzma, or Ingram. I don’t know why they would, but keep an eye on the news for the day anyway. I don’t like Ennis or Hart if the Lakers decide to use any of the three. Even if they don’t, Hart is tough to swallow at this price. I would much rather have Ennis for $2,000 less.

Dark Horses:

Anthony Tolliver ($6,000): There is less value with his price this high, but Tolliver still has nine straight games with more than 22 DraftKings points. Four of those are in the 30’s. There is decent enough potential here.

J.J. Redick ($5,800): The sharpshooting of Redick and Belinelli off the bench has fueled this win streak. Both of them are worth a look with the way they are playing right now. Ben Simmons hasn’t taken on much of the scoring load. He hasn’t needed to with these two around. Both Belinelli and Redick have nice floors right now.

Dillon Brooks ($5,400): Brooks is putting up as good or better numbers than the other Brooks at about $1,000 less. And Dillon is eligible at SF. Both sets of Brooks for Memphis are safe picks tonight, but I prefer Dillon if only using one due to the cheaper price.

My pick: Brooks(SF)

NEW ORLEANS, LA – FEBRUARY 19: Anthony Davis #23 of the New Orleans Pelicans makes a slam dunk in the first half during the 2017 NBA All-Star Game at Smoothie King Center on February 19, 2017 in New Orleans, Louisiana. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Bob Donnan – Pool/Getty Images) /

Power Forwards:

Best Bets:

Anthony Davis ($11,200): It’s hard to recommend Davis against a team like the Spurs, but the Pelicans really need him here. They are going to lean on him as much if not more than usual in this one. There is some potential here, but the chances of him hitting value are very slim. However, he should still wind up with a 50 spot at the least.

Kevin Love ($8,000): Love took advantage of the emaciated Knicks front for 42.25 DraftKings points in only 31 minutes. We should see similar numbers tonight. Considering that Aldridge is only averaging 24.2 DraftKings points per game against New Orleans this year, I would rather use the $2000 somewhere else and go with Love in a much easier matchup.

Honorable Mention:

Nikola Mirotic ($6,500): Mirotic has three straight games with more than 50 DraftKings points. We know that he isn’t going to hit that against the Spurs, but I would be he still hits at least 5x value at this price. The Pelicans are running very well with Mirotic starting at the four. I don’t see why they would change that up now.

Ersan Ilyasova ($6,300): Dario Saric lasted all of 13 seconds last night before exiting with a mouth laceration and a chipped tooth. It is probably just more uncomfortable than anything, but Saric hasn’t been a huge part of this win streak anyway. There is a very good chance that Ilyasova gets extended run in this game as well to make sure Saric is completely healed by playoff time. Keep an eye on the lineups.

Derrick Favors ($5,600): Favors provides certain value, but little upside. There is room for that in GPP formats, but I prefer Favors in cash games. Still, there is a decent amount of upside against Portland.

Dark Horses:

Montrezl Harrell ($5,000): Harrell got one of his largest workloads of the year on Monday, putting up 43 DraftKings points on the Pelicans. It looks like Harrell is part of the future for the Clippers, so he should see some pretty good minutes again tonight. I’m not sure that he comes close to Monday’s output, but he should hit value.

Eric Moreland ($4,300): The Pistons have no reason to bring back Blake or Drummond for the last game. That should mean another start for Moreland. He put up 27.25 DraftKings points against Toronto on Monday. He should have a much easier path and should hit at least 6x value again.

Jakob Poeltl ($3,700): Look for some official word coming out of Toronto sometime tomorrow afternoon. I would guess that since the first seed is wrapped up that Toronto would rest most of the stars, and maybe guys like Ibaka and Jonas too. If they rest both, that puts Pascal Siakam in play as well.

My pick: Moreland(PF)

LOS ANGELES, CA – JANUARY 22: Karl-Anthony Towns /

Center:

Best Bet:

Nikola Jokic ($10,600): The Nuggets would not be anywhere near the playoffs without Jokic. He has at least 50 DraftKings points in each of the last seven games, and has topped 60 four times in that span. Jokic is the guy to build around tonight, and for me, it isn’t really close.

Karl-Anthony Towns ($10,100): Contrarians will move to Towns. The ambitious will use both Towns and Jokic. In a must win game for both teams, expect both stars to be heavily involved here. I like Jokic better, but they are both solid options.

Honorable Mention:

Greg Monroe ($6,600): I’m guessing that Boston will choose to limit the minutes of some key players, but I don’t think Monroe will be one of them. I still see Monroe playing well for Boston in the playoffs depending on the matchup, but he still isn’t all that acclimated to the team despite being there for six weeks. Monroe has only been getting good run for about two weeks. I expect he will tonight as well.

Willie Cauley-Stein ($6,300): With Skal and Z-Bo sitting lately, WCS has racked up 120.25 DraftKings points over the last three games. The Kings should give Cauley-Stein plenty of minutes to go into the offseason with a strong finish. He has decent potential for the price here.

Ivan Rabb ($5,200): Rabb and Deyonta Davis will get significant run with Marc Gasol resting once again. Rabb has more value as the starter, and he has outplayed Davis by a pretty wide margin anyway. If you are looking for Memphis value, Rabb is the way to go for the frontcourt.

Dark Horses:

Khem Birch ($4,500): The Magic have liked what they have seen from Birch down the stretch. They aren’t going to play him big minutes, but Birch has at least 22 DraftKings points in five straight games, topping 30 three times despite not playing more than 27 minutes.

Boban Marjanovic ($4,400): DeAndre Jordan only played 22 minutes on Monday. I’m expecting the same kind of treatment tonight. Marjanovic hasn’t played many minutes, but he still has five straight games of more than 15 DraftKings points despite not playing more than 15 minutes. Come on Clippers, let’s see what he’s got! #FREEBOBAN

Henry Ellenson ($3,600): Ellenson actually outplayed Moreland in less minutes. Moreland wil likely start again, but Ellenson may have more value considering he is $800 less. Actually, I’m not opposed to using both with both Jokic and Towns.

My pick: Jokic(C), Ellenson(F)

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