5 reasons we won’t get a Cavaliers-Warriors Finals rematch
By Chris Stone
A fourth straight NBA Finals meeting between the Cavaliers and the Warriors is in danger
For three straight seasons, NBA fans have been treated to the same finals matchup: Cavaliers vs. Warriors. Golden States holds a 2-1 record in those series, including an unceremonious 4-1 dispatching of LeBron James and Co. last season. Were the two teams to meet again this June, the Warriors would be prohibitive favorites.
The good news is something different may be on the horizon. Here are five reasons NBA fans won’t get a fourth straight Cavs-Warriors finals.
5. The Cavaliers just aren’t that good
After three straight appearances in the NBA Finals and three straight top six finishes in net rating — offensive minus defensive points per 100 possessions — Cleveland is now decidedly average in the stat. The Cavaliers have the 15th best net rating in the league (+0.7) when garbage time is removed from the equation, per Cleaning the Glass. They have outperformed their expected record by more than seven wins, a league high.
While Cleveland retains one of the league’s best offenses powered by James and a collection of shooters, results on the other side of the ball have been a disaster. The Cavaliers frequently play with lackadaisical effort, struggling to get stops on a consistent basis. They rank 29th in the league in defensive rating, conceding 112.0 points per 100 possessions.
The obvious rebuttal to such season-long stats is a quick and easy reference to the overhaul of the team’s roster at the trade deadline. Shedding Isaiah Thomas and Jae Crowder has proven to be a positive move.
Although it’s an imperfect comparison since NBA.com’s statistics don’t remove garbage time, it’s worth noting Cleveland has the league’s ninth best net rating (+4.0) since the trade deadline. Most of its improvements have come on the defensive end.
Still, the Cavaliers rank in the bottom half of the league in defensive rating over that stretch and the bulk of team’s that performed worse were aggressively pursuing ping pong balls for lottery night.
If Cleveland is going to make a fourth straight trip to the finals, it’s going to require consistent high level offense and immense individual performances from James. Otherwise, hopes of Warriors-Cavs 4 are a pipe dream.